Pollster Nate Silver: 'Unmistakable' Shift in Support for Trump

Sarah Arnold reporting for Townhall 

With just four months until the presidential election, America has witnessed a would-be assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, and over 30 Congressional Democrats called on President Joe Biden to exit the 2024 race. 

At this point, nothing would be shocking, and almost anything can shake up the entire direction of the election. 

But for now, Trump is taking a massive lead as Democrats scramble to find a solution to their sinking chances of keeping the White House. 

Pollster Nate Silver revealed an “unmistakable” shift to Trump after surviving an assassination attempt. 

As of Friday, Silver pointed out that there are “a lot of bad polling numbers for Joe Biden over the past 24 hours.” On the contrary, however, Trump’s numbers are climbing the stairway to Heaven.

In a poll conducted by Silver, Biden’s national polling average is down nearly four points, with just a 26 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. 

On the flip side, there has been a major surge in support for Trump.

A lot of polling in since yesterday, and we're seeing an unmistakable spike for Trump, who is now up almost 4 points in our national polling average. This presumably reflects the impact of the assassination attempt against him, plus the start of the GOP convention. Note it's more a matter of Trump's numbers increasing than Biden's decreasing. The forecast/forward-looking component is designed to be quite cautious around the party conventions, discounting Trump's numbers somewhat (it will do the same for Democrats in August) and hedging toward its pre-convention forecast. Still, a new low for Biden: 25.8 percent. Via @NateSilver538

The poll’s findings come as more Democrats call on Biden to exit the 2024 race. 

In a recent podcast episode with Silver, the pollster— who is known for being historically accurate— said he doesn’t think Biden is “capable of running a normal campaign at all.”

In the episode titled "How to Convince Biden to Quit,” Silver argued that the president continues to fall further behind. Listening to his gut, Silver said there is no way Americans will vote for the 81-year-old president who is about to let COVID take him out after a bullet didn’t even stop Trump. 

Democrats have cited Biden’s disastrous debate performance as the nail in the coffin for any chance he had left to win a second term. However, polls conducted prior to the debate indicate otherwise. 

Before Biden took the stage last month against Trump, the president’s polling average was already struggling. In fact, it has been underwater since before his botched Afghanistan withdrawal. 

Biden began seeing his polling number drop rapidly as his reckless policies settled in. 

Earlier this year, his radical border policies highlighted the dangers of the thousands of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. had on Americans. This turned to voters citing his immigration policy as one of their top concerns. 

Inflation also caused Americans to reconsider voting for Biden. Every time they filled their car with gas or went to the grocery store, they were reminded of the president’s anti-American economic policies. 

Then, Biden’s support in key battleground states began to drop. 

Trump saw significant shifts in support among states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which Biden won in 2020. 

Flash forward to today; Biden is hemorrhaging supporters as his political future looks to come to an end.