France’s summer was marred by the rollout of a national
vaccine passport and the ensuing protests which continue to take place
every Saturday across the country. In the midst of this social tension, a
politically significant event was given little note.
In July, the French Interior Ministry – responsible for
organizing national elections – presented the official dates for the
upcoming and much anticipated 2022 Presidential election. While every
French Presidential election runoff has occurred in early May since
1974, the government, with the approval of the nation’s council of
Ministers, opted to advance the dates of the election to April 10th for the first round and April 24th for the runoff vote.
This change is significant because it conflicts with national public holidays.
French families typically align their vacations with the public school holidays. In fact, employers frequently require their employees to take their vacations during these breaks as a way of managing workflow.
School holiday dates are staggered depending on the
different administrative regions of the country to avoid overcrowding of
the domestic transportation system, and French workers often make use
of their time off by traveling outside their home town to visit family
and friends. During holiday seasons, certain regions experience an
outflow of residents.
As a consequence, if a vote is scheduled during one of
these periods, turnout is lower in regions where employees are on
holiday because there is no early voting in France.
By scheduling the runoff election in early May when the
workforce isn’t on break, the government was able to avoid conflicts
with national holidays. Alternatively, when the dates did
create a conflict, the government selected weeks when all regions’
vacations overlapped so as not to create regional discrepancies. This
Presidential election will be different however because only a third of
the country will be on holiday at the time of the vote. It’s the makeup
of the regions which are on break during the runoff that gives rise to
concern among the French opposition.
On April 24th 2022, the
date of the runoff election, the northern region of France called
“Hauts-de-France” and the southeastern region of “Provence-Alpes-Côte
D’Azur” will be on holiday. Significantly, these are the two most
unfavorable regions for the incumbent President Macron.
On the one hand, the north of France is very blue-collar, a consequence
of the dying heavy industry and mining sectors of the country. The
electorate is very sympathetic to the populist political platforms
advocated for by Marine Le Pen as well as the national left-wing
opposition to Macron. The southeast on the other hand is a conservative
bastion and favors the traditional right wing parties and Marine Le Pen
over the incumbent President.
In France’s regional elections this past June, President
Macron’s party did not make it into the runoff round in the north of
France. His party achieved a meager nine percent of the vote despite
even the French Attorney General campaigning on behalf of the President.
In the southeast, Macron’s party decided not to field a candidate at
all because the polls were so unfavorable.
During the 2017 French Presidential election, these two
regions were the areas where Marine Le Pen performed the most favorably
against Macron. Polls concerning the 2022 election suggest the runoff
will once again pit these candidates against one another.
If Le Pen is to stand a chance of defeating the incumbent,
she needs very high turnout in both the north and southeast of the
country. It is unsurprising, therefore, that she has expressed concern
about the election date and has called for the schedule to be modified.
Over the past two decades, voter turnout has been on the
decline in France. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic,
elections have seen the lowest participation levels in the country’s
history.
According to political commentators and public officials,
it is critical that the 2022 Presidential election see high voter
turnout. The health of the country’s democracy depends on the perceived
legitimacy of this election because of its central importance under the
current constitution. The incumbent French administration’s decision to
advance the runoff vote date coincides with talks of allowing for
mail-in ballots which have been banned in the country since the 1970s
because of the risk of fraud.
These moves by Macron’s government open the door to
allegations of voter suppression and manipulation by the opposition
which further polarizes and already tense French political landscape.
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