The Critical Island That Now Holds the Key to Victory Over Iran

RedState 

In the Persian Gulf, 16 miles off the Iranian coast, lies a small island that could be the key to finally sending Iran's theocratic regime into its well-deserved place in the ash heap of history. It's called Kharg Island, and it may well be the small scrap of dry land with the potential to end this whole thing.

Kharg Island is located about 16 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, making it difficult to defend and easier to isolate — reportedly drawing the attention of administration planners.

“Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Take it out, and this means cutting off the military budget in addition to pulling the plug on the basic services that keep Iranian society functioning,” said Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute.

“Losing Kharg for even a few weeks will create a security and societal crisis in Iran at the same time. Tehran doesn’t get to choose which one to deal with first,” said Soliman.

“The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly. You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle, and this will add more pressure on the country with no quick way to stop the bleeding.”

Here's the catch: This would put a serious squeeze on China, as well, as the Middle Kingdom buys, right now, over 80 percent of Iran's oil output. China, then, may be inclined to get a bit tetchy if we slammed the door on a little more than the same percentage of Iranian oil that China buys.

Still, this is a key logistical position. It may be counter-productive (although easily within our capacity) to just blow everything on the island up. When a new government comes into Iran and starts setting things to rights, as we sure hope happens, they'll need oil revenue - and this island will still be the key to that.

So, why haven't we occupied this island yet?

The island’s economic importance could give Trump leverage, said former administration official John Ullyot, who has served in defense roles including at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term.

JP Morgan cautioned in a Monday statement that “a direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”

Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have slowed to a trickle since the war started on Feb. 28 — causing wild swings in global trading as Trump attempts to coax ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz with a new reinsurance program and offers of US military escorts.

The problem isn't that it would halt Iran's bulk crude exports. That would weaken the theocracy, and is worth doing. No, the problem is that it's too close to the Iranian coast.

Iran still maintains a considerable number of short to intermediate-range missiles and drones. They are expending them at a pretty good clip and can't really replace them, but they still have some - and any American or (maybe more so) Israeli troops on that island would immediately draw fire. As Kharg Island is only about a third as big as Manhattan, there just aren't that many places to hide. 

Still, though, this is a key installation, critical to Iran's economy, and it would be amazing if it wasn't on a target list, for the event things start to go south. And here's the fun part: It wouldn't be in the least bit surprising if it's on Iran's target list as well, in the event they decide to go down swinging, and putting any new Iranian government at a disadvantage while doing so.