Latest News Shows Why Strait of Hormuz Move by Iran Continues to Unravel

RedState 

Iran is getting walloped militarily. 

On top of that, even their internal security force, the Basij, which the regime uses to suppress the people, is being clobbered and killed. Now they're also being affected by the members just deserting. 

One of the few "weapons" the regime had left was the Strait of Hormuz. But then President Donald Trump bombed the military installations on Kharg Island, with the warning that he'd left the oil installations untouched but could whack them in a red-hot minute if Iran continued to play these games in the Strait. So then the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rushed out with a statement that the Strait was open except for the U.S., Israel, and those involved in the battle. Trump, meanwhile, has spoken about sending escort ships to ensure passage and was asking other countries to be involved. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. ships very little through there; it only matters to us in the sense that if it affects the global markets, it can cause prices to rise. The main countries affected are Asian, such as India and China. Iran isn't likely to intentionally hit a Chinese ship, but as we noted, they're a major stakeholder here, and they should want it resolved for their own interests. 

Now India is sending warships to help escort its ships, according to India Today. Does Iran want to fire on them and drag India more into the war? 

Officials said the Navy has deployed multiple warships in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the North Arabian Sea to escort Indian-bound vessels through vulnerable stretches. [....]

Escort operations began last week, with naval ships accompanying cargo vessels and tankers to ensure safe transit to Indian ports.

Traffic is still less than normal, according to Marine Traffic, likely because other countries don't trust Iran saying things are open. 

But, as noted, India and China are two of the main shippers through the Strait. If they start getting things through on a regular basis, that should reassure markets, even without any further action by the United States. Two of the ships that got through were reportedly Indian ships. If Iran fires on them, they would only increase their chances of turning yet another country against them. 

On top of that, there are other workarounds being employed. Why ship through the narrow Strait when you can send things over land or by another route? Saudi Arabia and the UAE have other means. 

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), or Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, help partially offset the Strait of Hormuz blockage. You can see both of those on the following map, and they bypass the Strait. 

They don't have the same present capacity as the Strait, but they've already ramped up the Petroline. 

Ship tracking data suggests that roughly 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have been rerouted from Gulf loading points to the Red Sea. The sudden influx of tankers has turned Yanbu into one of the most important oil export hubs in the world during the crisis.

That's providing about 70 percent of Saudi Arabia's prior capacity. 

The ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, located in the United Arab Emirates, runs about 248 miles from oil facilities at Habshan to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. They transport about 1.5 million barrels per day and have a total capacity approaching 1.8 million barrels per day. So that allows the UAE to circumvent the Strait. 

They should increase the bypass capacity so that no one can use the threat of the Strait again. But that's a longer-term endeavor. 

So you can see Iran's last play is fraught with issues, even as they undercut it themselves by letting ships through because of the Trump threat. It's also being worked around. All this even without U.S. ships being there yet.