Defining Victory Over Iran

American Thinker 

If you listen to Donald Trump’s critics, the president is all over the map in defining the Iran war’s endgame. To casual or biased observers, that seems the case. In public pronouncements, the president’s war aims have varied, covering everything from regime change, via popular uprisings -- which he called for -- to erasing Iran’s capacity to make nuclear weapons to eliminating the mullahs’ means of playing oil politics and instigating acts of terror. Or combinations thereof.

Last Friday, in an interview with Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade, when asked when the war would end, Trump said, “When I feel it in my bones.”

That comment drove Trump haters crazy. Don’t doubt that Trump made the claim in part to get under his detractors’ skin. Otherwise, the anti-Trumpers lack an appreciation of strategic and tactical ambiguity. Trump’s vagueness plays in both ways.

Gavin Newsom, the failed governor of California, mocked Trump’s statement in an X post. He displayed a photo of when Trump’s hand was bruised -- from shaking a lot of hands. Newsom suggested that the war was beating the president. Newsom is running for his party’s presidential nomination. His Trump dig was red meat thrown to Democrat voters.

Newsom never skips a chance to play the lightweight. In barely more than two weeks of conflict, the American and Israeli joint effort has achieved remarkable military dominance. Iran’s navy and air force have been rendered nil, for all intents and purposes. Its stockpiles of missiles and drones are depleted. Many were destroyed, along with critical launchers and a drone naval carrier, in waves of U.S. attacks. Iran has some capability left. Three cargo ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz last week.

That’s why last Friday night Trump retaliated, ordering U.S. forces to pound Kharg Island military installations. He’s dispatched a contingent of 5,000 Marines and sailors to the Persian Gulf. Speculation is that the Marines may capture the island. Kharg is Iran’s principal oil export terminal. 90% of its crude transits from the island. The primary recipient? China. More on China shortly.

Marines landing on Kharg would constitute boots on the ground. Democrats and the fringy right are waiting to lose their cool. Yet much of the military infrastructure on the island has been destroyed. What sort of armed resistance the Iranians could mount isn’t known. We do know this: given that the Iranians lack air and naval counters, and given that the U.S. will destroy Iranian transports, getting reinforcements and materials to Kharg isn’t happening. Will the island’s defenders choose surrender or death? If the Marines invade, we’ll see if Iranian soldiers are really Islamic fanatics.

Trump spared Kharg’s oil facilities with a proviso. They’ll be reduced to rubble if the Iranians don’t cease attacks in the Persian Gulf and the Strait. Trump, always the negotiator, leverages everything, including Kharg Island and its critical role in revenue generation for the Iranian regime.

Kharg is a bargaining chip with whoever constitutes Iran’s leadership. Trump just announced the Iranians desire to negotiate a ceasefire, but he’s spurning them for the time being. They aren’t making the right concessions.

Lastly, and importantly, Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. The president now says he may postpone the visit if Xi doesn’t send warships to help patrol the Strait of Hormuz. That’s a deft move by Trump. He’s making it very clear that Xi’s cooperation matters to U.S.-Sino relations. Trump’s maneuver certainly adds another layer of ambiguity to the relationship. Trump thrives on other parties’ uncertainty.

The China angle is no minor consideration in the Iran war. China has relied on below-market priced oil exports -- sanctioned oil -- from Iran and Venezuela. Venezuelan oil came under U.S. control when Maduro was seized.

The war is a strategic move by Trump to check Xi Jinping’s global ambitions. Moreover, defeating Iran serves as a reality check for Vladimir Putin. Iran is a Russian ally. The PRC and Russia are aligned. Whatever Putin’s faults, he most certainly isn’t impractical. He’s a careful calculator of interests -- his and Russia’s. If the result of the conflict -- along with Trump’s actions in the Western Hemisphere -- succeed, Putin will be forced to rethink. Where do his interests best lie, with a resurgent U.S. or a diminishing PRC?

China is already hurting from U.S. actions squeezing Venezuelan oil exports. Trump now has his jaws wrapped around the throat of Iran’s oil flow. Reports are that the PRC’s economy is shaky. The U.S. gaining control of global oil markets significantly reduces Chinese leverage, economically and politically.

Trump is playing multilevel chess. Actions can -- and are -- serving multiple purposes. Iran’s days as a rogue state are dwindling. China is being boxed in. India is leaning away from the Chinese and Russians and toward the U.S. Whenever the Ukraine war concludes, anticipate Trump renewing overtures to lure Putin away from Xi.

A last, key point about Trump using the war to counter Xi’s ambitions.

Xi’s dictatorship rests on four pillars. First, a prospering economy, sufficient to keep coastal and inland populations from becoming restive. Second, solid economic performance to grow the military. Third, eventual conquest of Tiawan. Fourth, attaining global hegemony.

China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is being unbuckled by Trump in the Western Hemisphere. He’s countering the Chinese with the “Shield of the Americas” initiative. Panama terminated Chinese operational control of the Canal. Venezuela is subdued. Cuba’s communist regime is in discussions with Marco Rubio. That regime will be transitioned into oblivion.

Trump can accept China having a viable economy, but within a framework set by the U.S. Tariffs aren’t just revenue generators. They’re about slashing U.S. reliance on Chinese -- and others’ -- production, particularly in critical technologies, medicines, and rare earth minerals. Reshoring has economic and national security advantages.

U.S. domination of energy sectors -- that includes coal; China receives nearly a quarter of its coal from the U.S. -- is about limiting Xi’s options. Soldiers march on their stomachs, Napoleon said, but militaries rely on fossil fuels to operate.

Trump isn’t compelled to end the Iran war on terms less favorable than he deems desirable. Why should he? He means to extract maximum advantage from the conflict.

So, who’s defining the end of the war? President Trump. Not Democrats. Not corporate media. Not his coalition’s fringe. Not EU/NATO partners (so-called). When will it end? When Trump achieves key goals -- goals that focus on, but range well beyond, ending the Iranian threat. The wager is that the president does so in weeks, not months.

Should Trump succeed in this very ambitious enterprise, what will his detractors say?

Democrats will claim that victory is about feeding Trump’s imperialist ambitions. Trump is branded as Caesar! Rand Paul and likeminded will continue to squawk that Trump had no legal mandate for the war. Others will keep saying he betrayed his mandate.

Both will be proven terribly wrong because President Trump is on the verge of being proven spectacularly right.