President Trump Has Begun Discussions with President Putin
In an interview with President Trump, the New York Post reveals President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have begun discussions. You can read the article here. However, as would be expected, it is short on details.
This is a critical dynamic because the larger question that will not be pondered by Western media, but will weigh heavily in the background of President Trump’s perspective is, “is it too late?”
Staying in close contact with friends in Russia, it is apparent to me from the reality on the ground as well as the datapoints from all political angles, that President Putin is no longer in a position to feel any impact from non-military geopolitical pressure. Quite simply the consideration in the mind of Russian President Putin is something entirely different than it was a few years, or even a few months ago.
The Western economic sanctions against Russia have failed. There is no outward pressure or internal concern about Western financial and economic sanctions any longer. The Russian economy (govt) and the Russian people (civic society) in aggregate have now organized their economy and their consumer reality without further need for Western connection.
At this point, Putin almost certainly doesn’t care if the sanctions remain. Those pressure points are now moot to Russian interest, and in many ways the outcome has been beneficial from an economic nationalist perspective. While the most severe Western sanctions ever delivered in history, did – at first, create a problem for Russia; those problems are now resolved.
Factually, it may sound silly but McDonalds in Russia is better without McDonald’s Inc controlling it. Starbucks in Russia is now better delivering better products, under Russian management under a new name. The products and systems of commerce the Russian people initially missed, have all been replaced and new connections to finance have been established with commercial allies outside the zone of western influence.
One of the reasons why the Russian people are comfortable with the new dynamic inside their country relates to a cultural difference between those who live in Russia and those who live in the “west.” Russians seem deliberate and harsh, in part because there is no acceptance of a sub-optimal outcome in their broad view of commerce.
“Comrade, do it right, give me what I expect, or don’t do it… there is no middle ground.”
It is a strange dichotomy that few appreciate or understand. While Russians accept a ridiculous ‘caste’ system in their society; as delivered by govt, where those connected to power benefit; the Russian people simultaneously do not accept poor quality or sub-optimal products and services in their economic life.
The absence of western commercial economic activity has been replaced with Russian commercial activity, products, services and systems that are better than they were before. The market processes within Russia are now fully detached from western influence and tailored to the nuances of the Russian people.
Many would argue the only benefit to sanctions ending would be the ability of the average Russian to travel into Europe without hurdle. That’s essentially the only thing the average Russian would notice if the sanctions were removed. As a consequence, that arrow in the quiver of carrots is dull, moot and of no great consequence.
The only aspect to the Ukraine dynamic that weighs on President Vladimir Putin, is whether the West will put more military might into the war in Eastern Ukraine.
Putin is not going to withdraw.
Putin is not going to cede an inch of territory he has gained.
Putin is in a strong position and they only facet that remains is literally the blood-cost of this protracted conflict.
As a consequence, President Trump can offer President Putin very little. That makes things complicated. As noted in the article, “he believes Putin “does care” about the killing on the battlefield.”
[…] Trump said he has a concrete plan to end the war. “I hope it’s fast. Every day people are dying. This war is so bad in Ukraine. I want to end this damn thing.”
Addressing National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who joined him in his study aboard Air Force One Friday night, the president said: “Let’s get these meetings going. They want to meet. Every day people are dying. Young handsome soldiers are being killed. Young men, like my sons. On both sides. All over the battlefield.” (more)
Given the nature of everything as it exists, not as we would wish it to be, President Trump will likely have to present a very stern and even horrible forward-face to Vladimir Putin that might even shock the American people.
MAGA has no desire for the USA to engage in expanded military conflict with Russia. The overwhelming majority of the American people, in combination with an ever-increasing number of Europeans, do not want to see any escalation of the military hostilities with Russia. Vladimir Putin is well aware of this. Well aware.
President Putin knows there is no willingness within the citizens of the West for U.S/NATO blood to join the conflict. However, he is also well aware that no economic incentive really holds value any longer. Quite simply, Putin has very little to gain from the removal of sanctions; this puts the peace dynamic into a context of human suffering. That reality shows in the tone of comments and word choices from President Trump.
President Putin will evaluate Trump’s lack of wanting to escalate conflict against the core expressed desire by Trump to end the human suffering. This is yet again a dichotomy likely to soon unfold.
President Putin will know, with great deliberation, that President Trump does not want to push the USA/NATO military into direct combat against Russian troops. Yet, he will also know that if President Trump does decide to fully engage and enter the war, Trump will do it with the intense ferocity he is known for; nothing would be off the table, and he could lay waste to Eastern Ukraine.
It is entirely possible for President Trump to publicly present a forward-face to Vladimir Putin that could shock the American people.
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