Pete Hegseth Is on the Path to Confirmation

streiff reporting for RedState 

President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance launched a full-throated defense of their embattled Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth (Pete Hegseth Nominated to be Secretary of Defense (Updated) – RedState and OPINION: Why Pete Hegseth Is a Great Choice for Secretary of Defense – RedState). Hegseth has been continuously attacked since his nomination on nonsensical matters like his tattoos (HOT TAKES: AP Tries a 'Breathtaking,' Anti-Catholic Attack on Pete Hegseth, and People Aren't Having It – RedState) and on more substantive issues concerning his personal behavior and management ability (OPINION: Why President Trump Needs a Plan B For Hegseth Nomination -- UPDATED – RedState).

While things looked grim for Hegseth earlier in the week, I believe he's now on the path to confirmation. Let me tell you why.

The Press Stories Have Burned Out

There was a spate of damaging stories on Hegseth concerning regular public drunkenness and womanizing. Those stories have not received the traction that might have been expected for a couple of reasons. Many colleagues rallied around Hegseth to deny the stories that gave the appearance that Hegseth was an alcoholic and to create a solid doubt that undermined the narrative that was forming (OPINION: Latest SecDef Nominee Pete Hegseth Smears Ring False; Fox News Colleagues, Senators Cry Foul – RedState and The Pete Hegseth Smears Show Press Has Not Learned Lesson and Continues to Trample Journalistic Ethics – RedState). The woman who made a police report alleging Hegseth sexually assaulted her does not come off very well in the report. While the left screamed about him "forcing" her to sign a non-disclosure agreement, given the correct lighting, her refusal to cooperate with the police investigation and waiting three years to demand a settlement one could also catch images of a shakedown.

There may still be stories waiting to come out, but from the bullsh** media attacks on Hegseth's military record (The Washington Post Goes Dumpster Diving With New Attack on Pete Hegseth's Military Service – RedState) and religion, I think the media consensus is that the wine, women and song stories aren't going anywhere.

He's Not Feeding the Beast

The best way to keep a story alive in the media is to keep talking about it. Hegseth has shown remarkable discipline in resisting the temptation to engage in conversations with the media, which will inevitably lead to more conversations and controversies. This video shows his strategy in a nutshell.

I'm proud of what I fought for. I'm not going to back down from them one bit. I will answer all these senators's questions. But this will not be a process tried in media. I don't answer to anyone in this group - none of you. Not to that camera at all. I answer to President Trump, who received 76 million votes on behalf and a mandate for change. I answer to the 50...the 100 senators who are a part of this process and those on the committee. And I answer to my Lord and Savior, and my wife and my family. I'm proud to be here. As long as Donald Trump wants me in this fight, I'll be standing right here in this fight. Fighting to bring our Pentagon back to what it needs to be.

Corralling Joni Ernst

I think Hegseth can count on three GOP votes against him: Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, and Lisa Murkowski. That means he has to carry the rest of the GOP caucus because he has to assume the Democrats, even Fetterman, will vote lockstep. Three downvotes put the decision in the hands of JD Vance. Four downvotes doom the nomination.

It seems like his first meeting with Ernst didn't go all that well so they scheduled a second meeting (Iowa Senator Ernst Speaks Out on Hegseth Nomination – RedState).

In my view, the criticism Ernst has faced from what seems to be a grassroots level has had its effect, and she will vote for his confirmation—not only because it is the right thing but also because she doesn't want to be Liz Cheney. One of the more clever lines of attack was claiming that Ernst would sandbag Hegseth so she could have the nomination for herself.

Sidelining Lindsey Graham

Initially, Lindsey Graham sounded doubtful.

In two days, this was Graham.

I also don't think we can minimize a rumored Nancy Mace primary challenge.

A vote for Hegseth probably lets Graham retire in peace. Scuttling his nomination guarantees a torqued electorate and a formidable candidate.

Strays Coming Home

It was reported earlier that six senators would vote against Hegseth. Those senators are Susan Collins (Maine), John Curtis (Utah), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina). Lindsay Graham (South Carolina) and Kevin Cramer (North Dakota) are very much on the bubble.

Thom Tillis has said he will vote to confirm Hegseth.

Kevin Cramer seems to be a yes.

John Curtis has yet to make a public statement. Will he follow Mike Lee's lead or be Mitt Romney 2.0?

Support From the Top

The big factor in Hegseth's surviving stories that would have killed any other nomination is support from the top. Trump has encouraged Hegseth to fight on even though it has to be painful for his wife. More than encouraging him, Trump has let everyone know that Pete Hegseth is his guy.

Saturday, Trump wrote:

Pete Hegseith is doing very well. His support is strong and deep, much more so than the Fake News would have you believe. He was a great student — Princeton/Harvard educated — with a Military state of mind. He will be a fantastic, high energy, Secretary of Defense Defense, one who leads with charisma and skill. Pete is a WINNER, and there is nothing that can be done to change that!!!!

JD Vance added:

Led by President Trump, we're fighting for Pete Hegseth. And we're doing so because Pete Hegseth wil fight for our troops.

For too long, the Pentagon has been led by people who lose wars. Pete Hegseth is a man who fought in those wars.

We've got his back.

I think the subtext here is clear for any GOP senator thinking about voting no. A no vote means that Trump, Vance, and the movement that put them in the White House would treat that as the equivalent of a declaration of war. 

A lot of things could happen between now and January, but unless something new arrives that totally rearranges the pieces on the board, I think Pete Hegseth will get his shot at reforming the Department of Defense.