Coup Underway in Damascus As Two Major Cities Fall to Islamist Insurgents; Assad and Family Flee

streiff reporting for RedState 

Multiple sources report that a military coup may be underway in Damascus. The Republican Guard is reportedly engaged in combat with a division of the Syrian Army. Ordinarily, the Republican Guard is the regime protection force, but the situation is so confused in Syria that it is hard to tell. Speculation has identified the coup leader as a member of Assad's inner circle.

Take that for what it's worth.

Syrian state television has just gone off the air.

This is just another in a series of signs that the Bashar al-Assad regime is in its last days.

Yesterday, Aleppo fell after a 72-hour offensive; see Assad Loyalists and Russians in Headlong Retreat After Surprise Rebel Offensive on Aleppo. To put it in context, Aleppo has been controlled by Assad's forces since 2011. Today, two other major Syrian cities have fallen to the insurgents: Hamah and Homs.

Adding further fuel to the fire is the fact that Assad and his family were in Moscow while Putin attended a conference in Kazakhstan. Many members of Assad's family are reportedly holed up in the UAE.

There is a report of a plane arriving from Moscow overnight, which some are taking to mean Assad has returned. I find it very unlikely that Assad would return to Syria under these circumstances.

Bottom Line

The insurgent breakthrough toward Damascus and the inability of the Syrian Army to rally is not a good sign for Assad. The initial interpretation of the offensive taking place while Assad was out of the country as a sign that the regime was caught flatfooted now seems, to me, to be in error. Assad was in Moscow with his family while Russia's foreign minister and Putin were out of the country. So, it clearly was not a state visit. It is beginning to look like he knew what was coming. If a coup is underway in Damascus, there is a high probability that it will succeed, and an immediate attempt will be made to reach an arrangement with the insurgents. What happens then is anyone's guess.