Attempted assassination on Trump: Potential consequences for presidential election

 On July 13, the United States experienced another political earthquake. During an election rally, there was an assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Attempted assassination on Trump: Potential consequences for presidential election (msn.com)

There is currently little information about the perpetrator of the assassination attempt to determine his motives or possible connections. It is known that he is 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.

Amid the fierce struggle between Republicans and Democrats, and the division and polarization of American society, such an incident is not a surprise. Some experts in the US warned months ago that this kind of event was possible, simply based on social dynamics.

A poll by the University of Virginia Center for Politics in October 2023 showed that 52% of Biden supporters said Republicans pose a threat to America’s way of life, while 47% of Trump supporters said the same about Democrats.

Among Biden supporters, 41% believed that violence is justified to "prevent Republicans from achieving their goals." Similarly, 38% of Trump supporters are willing to resort to violence to stop the Democrats.

The situation has certainly not improved since the fall. In fact, it has been heating up.

In March of this year, the film "Civil War" made a lot of buzz in the US. In the plot, after a political crisis, some states declare their independence and march their troops to Washington.

Considering the US has a "tradition" of political leader assassinations, from Lincoln to Kennedy, the situation remains alarming.

Trump: martyr or charlatan?

During the assassination attempt, Trump acted with remarkable composure, signaling to the rally participants with an upraised hand, symbolizing victory. His team will likely use the incident to portray him as a leader who perseveres toward victory despite threats to his life.

“This undoubtedly adds an emotional impulse to consolidate his electorate. Similarly, albeit in a different form, the court rulings against Trump had a paradoxical effect. And here, certainly, sympathy and consolidation of his electorate come into play,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political scientist and chairman of the board of the Center for Applied Political Studies PENTA, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Notably, the assassination attempt occurred just days before the Republican Party convention, which begins on Monday, July 15. Trump is expected to be officially nominated as the presidential candidate at the convention.

“The president (Trump, as this title is for life in the US - ed.), assuming he is up for attending, and I assume he will be, will be greeted as a kind of martyr of this event and I think it could be angrier or could be more somber. But it’s certainly not going to be the same,” noted David Axelrod, a Democratic Party political strategist and CNN commentator.

However, Volodymyr Fesenko believes that the assassination attempt will not affect the ratings or the balance of power.

“This is unlikely to sway the undecided voters, who will determine the outcome of the election. However, the degree of consolidation among Trump supporters could be significant,” emphasized the political scientist.

On the other hand, conspiracy theories about a staged attack are expected, particularly from those who inherently oppose Trump.

“This is also a political technology. If you want to influence the election, you can simulate an assassination attempt, demonstrate that your leader is under threat, needs protection and that enemies want to destroy him. This can be a tool of the election campaign. Therefore, this version will definitely be present,” said Volodymyr Fesenko.

Biden and Democrats' reaction

The assassination attempt on Trump poses additional risks for Biden and his team. This ranges from explaining the failure of the Secret Service (the federal agency responsible for protecting current and former presidents) to countering the consolidation of Trump’s voters. Answers to these challenges are still being developed. For now, Biden has condemned the attempt on his opponent's life.

However, the main problem for the Democratic Party lies elsewhere.

"They (the Democrats) need to decide who will run in the election. That is the key issue. The assassination attempt, if it had happened closer to the election, might have influenced the outcome to some extent. But now, with a few months still to go and nothing happening to Trump, its impact is limited," summarizes Volodymyr Fesenko.

In any case, the assassination attempt has escalated the political confrontation in the US to a new level. The primary concern now is to prevent the emergence of imitators of the Pennsylvania shooter.