Here's How Trump Is Picking His Successor
By now, most Americans should realize that Donald Trump, renowned reality-TV star and former president, is playing with us about his choice for vice president. Not surprisingly, he’s doing it masterfully.
That’s perfectly fine. The unidentified people telling Joe Biden what to do only wish they could do the same.
Modern political campaigns have devolved from serious examinations and discussions of proposed plans, policies, and record in office into a game of images played through the media.
As orchestrated by Biden’s worried party, Trump’s potentially historic 2024 campaign for a White House return has been seriously crippled until now by a Manhattan trial.
Normally, Soros-backed prosecutors are all about freeing accused criminals to re-wreak their social havoc on American citizens.
But Alvin Bragg in Manhattan took a misdemeanor case and bungee-corded it into a bunch of felonies before a friendly judge who’s a Biden donor and helped steer it to convictions.
We’ll see if the guilty verdict survives on appeal. Or if potential juror misconduct might sink it sooner.
But Trump’s required courtroom presence denied him the most precious resource any candidate has: time. Months of time to earn continuous free media exposure.
True, the political trial and conviction did ignite $53 million in sympathetic donations immediately after the verdict and $141 million for May.
And Trump still managed some spectacular media hits to propel his political presence – a pizza delivery to a New York firehouse, a drop-by at an Atlanta Chik-fil-A, and, most recently, a trademark mass rally in the bowels of the Bronx, long a Democrat stronghold.
For more than a decade, Trump presided over “The Apprentice” and its spinoffs, turning them into top-rated shows for NBC. It fueled his bank accounts, his ego as the center of attention, and his fame as a successful businessman. You could say the show’s host was the real winner.
So successful was that run on national TV that people still buy DVD collections of entire seasons plus a talking Donald Trump bobblehead with his own voice uttering 17 familiar phrases. (“From this day forward, it’s going to be only America First.”)
A major premise of successful reality TV is compelling viewers to wonder what happens next week. Who gets voted off the island? Who gets the rose? Or, more famously, who gets fired?
“You’re Fired!” losers heard Trump say. Now, Trump is very publicly conducting a search to say, “You’re hired!” to a vice-presidential political partner. We know nothing directly of Trump's preference now, just speculations fueled by media's need to appear to have new news daily.
Joe Biden’s disastrous pick aside, VP searches have generally been of mild passing media interest typically because the results only speak to a ticket’s perceived political need. (George McGovern’s frantic search for a second choice in 1972 was an exception.)
Gov. George W. Bush had D.C. veteran Dick Cheney run the 2000 VP search, then picked the searcher himself for his long cabinet, congressional, and White House experience and lack of presidential ambitions.
Going all the way back to 1944, Democrats have picked senators for VP with but two exceptions. Barack Obama, a new senator, phoned Joe Biden in a dentist’s waiting room in 2008 to gain his long but unremarkable Senate experience.
Biden picked Sen. Kamala Harris for nothing but the identity boxes she checked.
Trump is milking this search as the adept showman he is. In an interview last winter, he said he’d already made up his mind.
As you may have noticed in recent years, Trump’s mind can change. We will be getting a steady stream of possible picks right up to and maybe into the mid-July Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Such leaks would enable Trump to test public opinion and keep his name in the news while Biden is on another vacation.
This past week we learned Trump’s campaign has distributed detailed questionnaires to a handful of possible picks.
You may recall, during his presidency, Trump released a list of jurists he promised to use for Supreme Court nominees. For his three successful nominees, Trump did use that list.
There’s no guarantee Trump will make his VP selection from this list, or not add other names to stimulate attention and help fill his court-imposed publicity deficit.
“Anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying, unless the person is named Donald J. Trump," said Brian Hughes, a campaign adviser.
Of course, Trump could make the stunning move of asking his former rival, Gov. Nikki Haley, to join the ticket. Seems highly unlikely, given their hard-fought primary competition. But it would be a huge bid for party unity.
Trump’s selection will be closely watched because, if the GOP ticket wins this year, a vice president would be the party’s heir apparent come 2028.
We know detailed questionnaires on taxes, investments, etc. have gone to Sens. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance and Gov. Doug Burgum. Some questions have also been asked of Sens. Tom Cotton and Tim Scott, Ben Carson, Reps. Elise Stefanik and Byron Donalds. One of my RedState colleagues suggested Texas Gov. Greg Abbott recently.
Each potential partner would bring unique strengths and some disadvantages. Primary in Trump’s eyes is, not surprisingly, loyalty. All of these would qualify for that. And all are younger than Trump, who turns 78 this week.
Surrogate campaign appearances during the next month could be auditions. The 58-year-old Scott, whose own White House candidacy never caught fire, is the only black senator and has an inspiring personal family story.
Rubio, the son of immigrants, is probably the most well-spoken and quick-minded of the group and would quite politely destroy Harris in a VP debate. He’s 53.
But he and Trump are both officially Florida residents, which potentially runs afoul of the 12th Amendment, which prohibits Electoral College members from voting for two candidates (a president and VP) from their same state. That could be key in a close election.
In 2000 and 2004, Cheney changed his voting residence from Texas back to his native Wyoming. Trump could possibly move to New Jersey or more likely pick someone else whose absence would not endanger any future GOP Senate majority.
Arkansas’ Cotton is a former Army Ranger (101st Airborne) and Iraq combat veteran with strong conservative credentials.
His Senate term runs to 2027, so he could stay in office. And at 47, he would present a striking contrast to Biden and an attractive younger backup to Trump.
He would also fit Americans’ abiding preference for tall presidents. Cotton is 6'5". Americans have not elected a commander in chief under six feet tall since 1956, except for Jimmy Carter in 1976 at 5'10".
I have no inside knowledge on Trump’s pick. But having watched him for years and brd on his proclivities (he chose an incumbent governor as partner in 2016), my guess is he will go with Burgum. The North Dakota governor has been a regular presence near Trump recently, even at the New York trial.
Burgum would gain little for the Republican ticket from the Electoral College. North Dakota’s three electoral votes have gone to the GOP for 27 of its 33 presidential elections in statehood and every one of them since 1968.
Burgum, like Trump, is a self-made billionaire (tech). The former president appreciates business success and enjoys wealthy company. And Burgum is 67, which is senior but nowhere near the big 8-0 that’s become political poison under the current president, who turns 82 this year.
Burgum is less vetted than other potential VPs, which would be dangerous if there’s some skeleton to be unearthed by eager liberal media before November.
However, there’s plenty of time for Trump’s people to mine for that, unlike McGovern who selected Tom Eagleton at the last convention moment in 1972 without thorough backgrounding.
At 5'8", Burgum is short by recent presidential standards. But Trump, at 6'3", might actually like that.
Burgum was with Trump for the N.Y. verdict. Asked later about joining the ticket, the governor said wisely, “President Trump is so strong right now, he could get elected without a vice president.”
Most importantly, though, Burgum is far less known than Trump, presenting no threat in terms of media prominence or fame. His ticket to future success and political power would have to run through loyal service to his president, which bosses appreciate.
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