The Ukraine War Needed to End Yesterday
On July 25, 2023, Fox News Host Sean Hannity hosted a town hall meeting with Democrat presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. A seven-minute segment of that event primarily concerned the war in Ukraine and was entitled “America Wants War with Russia.” Being familiar with one of the worst foreign policy decisions in the post-World War II era, I listened intently to what the liberal presidential candidate had to say on the subject. He was quite knowledgeable and, in general, seemed to grasp the motivating imperatives which precipitated this mistake. In contrast, the “conservative” Hannity appeared clueless and maybe disingenuous. Six months later, as the endless war continues, that town hall remains relevant.
Kennedy focused on two specific items. One, the understanding that existed between Russia, the United States, and Germany regarding the reunification of Germany in 1989-91, and, two, the Minsk Accords. Kennedy’s main thrust was that the war in Ukraine was driven by American desire for a manageable war with Russia.
Kennedy summarized Germany’s reunification and America’s failure to live up to promises made to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet head of state. The promise was that NATO wouldn’t expand beyond Germany’s eastern border. Our leaders later took the position that America’s and Germany’s oral promises had no legal basis. This is not sustainable in diplomatic understandings be they made in secret or announced publicly.
It’s just common sense that, if diplomats cannot rely on fellow diplomats’ representation, countries will struggle to negotiate to avoid war. Trusting America and Germany, the Soviet Union removed 300,000+ troops and thousands of heavy weapons. That was a good thing but, in contrast, the United States broke its word. By doing so, we gave Gorbachev’s successors good reason not to ever trust us again. There has existed an unnecessary estrangement ever since and this feeling is helping to drive us towards war.
The Minsk Agreements were an effort to establish peace in Ukraine and stop the fighting between ethnic Russians and Ukrainian civilians that started immediately after the 2014 coup. Washington represented the coup as a revolution despite it being orchestrated by Victoria Nuland, Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs. George Friedman of STRATFOR declared this action was a coup.
While Kennedy’s summary contained errors in the dates of the Minsk agreements, he did get the narrative right. The first Minsk accord failed and led to the second. Russia guaranteed peace on behalf of the ethnic Russian eastern region of Ukraine called the Donbas, and the West, led by America, guaranteed it for the Ukrainian government.
Ultimately, the Donbas voted to leave Ukraine and declared for Russian sovereignty. The purpose was to have Russia send troops to their rescue. This was because the Ukrainian government had killed around 14,000 ethnic Russians in the Donbas region since 2015. In February 2022, the Kiev Government dramatically increased bombardment of the Donbas. This resulted in the 2/24/22 Russian invasion ordered by Putin.
Under Minsk 2, the West was to have restrained the Kiev government from such actions. Russia/Putin was to do likewise. The West dishonored their agreement. This was a direct provocation, as Kennedy argued, leading to war.
In a book on the Ukraine war written by Swiss intelligence officer Colonel Jacques Baud, “Operation Z,” he covers the massive uptick in shelling of the Donbas (pgs. 175-177). On pages 182-84, he lays out damning evidence that supports Kennedy’s main thrust that America and her allies drove Russia to invade.
On March 18, 2019, President Zelensky’s advisor and spokesman, Oleksei Arestovich, said in an interview on the Ukrainian channel Apostrof TV:
With a 99% probability, our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia. And if we don’t join NATO, Russia will absorb us completely within 10-12 years. That is the whole range we are in. Now go and vote for Zelensky!
Apostrof TV: And if you could choose, what would be best?
Arestovich: Of course, a big war with Russia and the move to NATO following the victory over Russia.
……...But the price of joining NATO is, in all likelihood, a full-scale conflict with Russia. A larger conflict than we have today. Or a series of such conflicts. But in that conflict, we will be very actively supported by the West. Weapons. Equipment. Assistance. New sanctions against Russia. Most likely, the introduction of a NATO contingent. A no-fly zone, and so on. In other words, we won’t lose it. This is a good thing.
How could Arestovich be so sure in 2019 of the Western support that ultimately occurred in 2022?
The answer is now obvious. The war in Ukraine had been planned for some time. Operatives in our State Department and Pentagon were most likely working behind President Trump’s back to orchestrate this. Why? An outdated philosophy that still sees Russia as the Soviet Union despite the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and German Reunification. The war’s purpose was to weaken Russia and diminish Putin’s stature, leading to his downfall.
Putin’s Russia is not the Soviet Union. The “experts” would have you believe he is plotting his European conquest. He is not. Putin’s immediate goal is survival. Remember, we have placed missiles in Romania and Poland that can deliver a nuclear strike on Moscow in ten minutes or less.
Republican Lindsey Graham has called for Putin’s assassination. We threatened him, not the other way around.
Russian GDP in 2022 was $2.24 trillion as compared to America’s GDP of $25.4 trillion and the European Union/NATO’s GDP of $16 trillion, which combined equal $41.4 trillion in GDP. Russia does not have the financial wherewithal to invade Europe.
However, Putin’s army (2 million, including 850,000 active soldiers, reserves at 1.15 million,) is large enough to slice through several countries—although he has not threatened to do so. He is building up his military in anticipation of the West attacking and is preparing for a defensive war. That being the case, he will not invade anyone based on his current mindset unless provoked.
America’s military numbers are 2.1 million, with 1.3 million active and 800,000 reserves, and the European Union/NATO forces stand at 2.23 million, 1,065,000 active, 700,000 reserves, and 450,000 militia. (These numbers, as well as GDP, reflect the top ten European armies: Italy, France, Germany, Greece, the U.K., Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, and Portugal.) These nations would be the most affected by Russian aggression. Other NATO participants, such as Canada and Turkey, are questionable allies under current leadership. The smaller countries would participate but less significantly. Estimates of Russian forces vary excessively, which indicates that some numbers have been exaggerated for political purposes.
Having followed the events in Ukraine, the conclusion is that the quality of Western leadership is problematic. America is calling the shots but has failed. Russia fought a war of attrition, killing its way to victory. Baud states that Russians have mastered the “operational art.” (Battlefield tactics and adjustments within the overall operation.) Because of the Russian strategy, the war in Ukraine is hopeless. Ukraine can no longer field an army to challenge Russia.
Russia has what it wanted: The Donbas and Crimea. Who really wants the bombed-out cities?
Right now, the Biden administration is desperately trying to keep this war going to avoid having to admit a humiliating defeat in an election year. The Ukraine war needed to end yesterday.
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