The 2024 Election Is 2020 Deja Vu All Over Again
Have you ever been somewhere and quite suddenly, you have a very vivid, very precise memory that you've been in that exact same place before? Or had the exact same conversation before?
Even though neither is possible.
Such puzzling moments happened to me a few times many years ago, and I would have bet two whole weeks’ allowance that the uncanny coincidences were accurate.
They weren’t.
They were mental stutters, déjà vu moments that are minor memory glitches in the brain that happen to many people, mainly in young adulthood.
I always found them intriguing little life mysteries. I’ve seen déjà vu (French for “already seen”) described as a visual image or experience taking two paths to your memory. One image registers instantly as a memory. So, when the second image arrives a fraction of a second later, it registers, inaccurately, as familiar.
Whatever the neurological explanation, I’m having rolling deja vu moments these days about the weird, marathon 2024 presidential campaign. Not because I’ve been involved one way or another with these Leap Year political events ever since 1968. God help me.
But because in many ways, with one major twist, we appear to be re-experiencing right now the familiar 2020 presidential campaign, only this time it’s leading up to the 2024 election. And we don’t yet know the results or the impact of numerous interim events.
Bear with me here. At this moment, 51 weeks out, it looks like we’re going to have an election rematch, the same two candidates as in 2020 – Donald Trump, who will be 78 then, vs. Joe Biden, about to turn 82. Both men are now three years older than in their prior match-up, though it’s mainly Biden showing the most negative mental and physical effects.
These two nominees are not certain, of course. Nothing seems certain anymore when telling the truth is no longer a valued or enforced trait in elected officials. And media, our dissolute watchdogs of government, only call fouls on one side.
The unprecedented legal prosecutions of one party’s leader by his successor’s party have created a mountain of uncertainties and concerns.
Regardless of some debatable legal credibility, the charges have been carefully choreographed and scheduled to inflict maximum political damage on the Republican Party’s leader, much as the Russian collusion hoax, serial Deep State leaks, and two impeachment votes were.
But instead, among many GOP primary voters, these prosecutions have come across more like persecutions, creating a significant sympathy factor for Trump, whose pugnacious public behaviors would seem to squelch such sympathy.
Polls are momentary snapshots of public opinion and not predictive. But if anything, Trump’s current large polling lead nationally has increased over Nikki Haley, 51, and Ron DeSantis, 45. Their next opportunity to impress voters on a national stage comes in the Dec. 6 GOP debate in Alabama.
However, the political reality is that a handful of not-really representative primary states will likely shape the nominee’s identity – starting with Iowa Jan. 15, New Hampshire Jan. 23, South Carolina Feb. 3 (Democratic) and 24 (Republican), Nevada Feb. 6.
In 2020 at this point, there was no uncertainty about incumbent Trump winning re-nomination, just as there’s none now about Biden being re-nominated.
But will both still be standing as front-runner come the conventions? What if Trump is convicted on all or a large number of the 91 charges against him? Will voters and/or delegates have second thoughts about naming a convicted felon to head the national ticket and become commander in chief?
Will acquittals give him an unstoppable boost?
Overwhelmingly, polls show Americans want two other choices.
But Trump says he’s in the race no matter what, though dodging the debates. Remember, he’s said many things that did not come to pass.
Biden, too, says he’s all in for a second term until he’s 86. And Jill agrees. Publicly, Democrat bigwigs, with no heavyweight substitute at hand, say the same thing. Even as a few ambitious Dem governors stand quietly in the wings with idling political ops.
I don’t see how that party will go through with a Biden kamikaze candidacy.
As much as party leaders profess support for an incumbent and fear dumping him and his identity politics VP, Biden’s poll numbers are just so abysmal. They scream the need for someone else. Even in the unlikely event his ratings climb out of the brment somewhat in the next few months.
A recent New York Times/Siena College Poll found both Trump and DeSantis doing well against Biden in the six swing states likely to decide the general election. While Nikki Haley handily defeats Biden in all six of them.
Biden and the people telling him what to say seem to be counting on Trump antipathy bailing him out again. But even party guru David Axelrod warns against that.
And here’s where the flipped déjà vu comes into play. In 2020, Biden’s mental frailty was visible only to those who watched closely.
Biden wasn’t all that popular then. The ex-vice president came in fourth in the Iowa caucus behind a nobody like Pete Buttigieg. In New Hampshire, he did worse, finishing fifth. This time, he’s not even on the ballot there.
As the most familiar Democrat, however, he seemed a comfortable choice, and he was promising a return to normalcy against the notorious outlaw Trump. Not because they liked him so much. But Biden seemed the only realistic alternative, while the other guy’s behavior seemed too scary.
Pre-election polls on voting in 2020 were the least accurate in four decades. However, they showed a majority of Democrats said they were voting againstPresident Trump more than for Joe Biden. Exit polls confirmed it. That’s a dangerous phenomenon.
This time, however, it’s incumbent Biden’s record front and center. On the direction of the country under Biden, it’s only 26 percent Right Track, 66 Wrong Track.
Americans are not buying Bidenomics either. His job approval on issues is underwater on every one.
Far from a return to normalcy, Biden’s policies appear openly destructive — killing energy independence, exorbitant spending, inflation, draining by half, then not refilling the strategic oil reserve.
And with virtually every public appearance, Biden provides compelling evidence of his mental decline. On Friday, for example, Biden explained that Hamas attacked Israel because of his plans to build a railroad from Saudi Arabia to Europe. No, really, he actually said that.
It’s hard to separate Trump the politician from the image of constant turmoil. His need to be the center of attention and his favorite method of doing that being confrontations were a toxic mix for 2020 voters.
But that was three years ago. His long absence from dominant social media actually helped his image. Washington media now are trying to revive that old image with stories alleging Trump is plotting a wave of revenge on the Justice Department and Deep State in a second term.
Polls show Americans would much prefer two major party candidates other than JRB and DJT. But if it comes down to a 2020 sequel, at this stage, the pendulum looks to be swinging back in the direction of Donald Trump.
Not so much because they like Trump and his effective policies. But because he’s the only realistic alternative to the other guy’s unpredictable behavior that seems too scary.
Wait a minute! Doesn’t that seem eerily familiar? Almost like we’ve been in this exact same spot sometime before.
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