Report, JP Morgan Predicts National Average Gasoline Prices Over $6 Gallon by August
Zero Hedge published a good article yesterday with some solid internal data showing a strong likelihood that national gasoline prices are likely to rise another 40% from current levels by mid-late summer. That would put the national average for a gallon of gasoline around $6.20 by August.
The data behind the prediction is solid and essentially boils down to the U.S. refineries not having the expanded capacity needed to keep up with an increased summer demand, particularly as they need to keep generating high volumes of diesel fuel due to current critical shortages.
The issues are created by the Biden administration and the regulatory stranglehold they put on the oil and gas industry last year. Obviously, all of this is a feature of the administration plan, not a flaw. The Green New Deal agenda necessarily requires that gasoline rise in price to $7/gal this year in order to force the change in profit dynamic for alternative fueled transportation.
Unfortunately, we the consumers will be the ones punished as the progressive, communist and far-left policy makers chase their climate change agenda. Cheap and cost-effective energy has to be made ‘not cheap’ and ‘not cost-effective’ in order to create the energy crisis their agenda requires.
Massive increases in gasoline prices are a feature, not a flaw.
Remember, Biden is disposable. The people behind Biden purposefully selected him in order to generate a kamikaze ‘fundamental change’ mission within a single 4-year presidential term. Getting crushed on the political outcomes is irrelevant, they just need to push the agenda fast enough, far enough, and destructive enough, so that all energy policies become irreversible.
The people behind the Biden administration energy program are trying to make the infrastructure needed to return to cheap and abundant energy independence, cost prohibitive.
(Via Zero Hedge) – […] According to JPM, a major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports. Preliminary EIA data suggest that gasoline exports, mostly to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, are averaging about 0.9 mbd since March, about 100 kbd above seasonal norms and nearly 300 kbd above summer rates.
The punchline: if exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs, already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates, fall within JPM’s expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher, according to JPMorgan.
Some more details from the JPM forecast, starting with assumptions:
♦ The bank expects US refinery runs to peak at 16.8 mbd in August, which, with an average gasoline yield of 49%, means that US refiners will produce about 8.2 mbd of gasoline. Assuming gasoline imports of 0.7 mbd and 10% ethanol blending, the bank expects total finished motor gasoline supply to average 9.9 mbd. If exports continue just below current levels—about 0.8 mbd—that leaves the US with just 9.1 mbd of gasoline supply available for consumption at peak demand this summer.
♦ Because US gasoline demand is expected to average 9.7 mbd in August, the result is an average draw of 0.6 mbd from gasoline inventories in August, about 200 kbd tighter than normal.
♦ Holding those assumptions on refinery yields and flows for gasoline from today through August, total US gasoline inventories could fall below 160 mb by the end of August, the lowest inventory level since the 1950s.
A regression analysis on the relationship between gasoline inventory changes and NYMEX gasoline prices “suggests that a drop of about 60 mb in gasoline stocks between now and August would result in a 37% increase in prices which translates to a $6.20/gal average US retail price”, according to Kaneva. (read more)
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