Trump Iowa goal: Win general election while Democrats struggle through caucuses
DES MOINES -- In February 1984, President Ronald Reagan, assured of his party's nomination for re-election, nevertheless decided to fly to Iowa to hold two rallies, one in Waterloo and the other here in Des Moines, on the day Democrats held their presidential caucuses.
Reagan's move frustrated Democratic leaders. The state party chairman called the visit a "stunt" and "not worthy of a president." Another Democrat, speaking anonymously to the New York Times, said, "Let's face it: Reagan's media event will clobber our media event."
Fast forward more than three decades. Last summer, Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, had a conversation with President Trump. "I reminded him that Ronald Reagan was in a very similar situation that he was -- an incumbent president who came to the Iowa caucuses and made a huge splash," Kaufmann told me. "It drove the Democrats nuts."
Kaufmann doesn't take sole credit for the idea; others may have suggested it, too. But the bottom line is that last Thursday, as the Democratic caucus campaign reached its peak, Air Force One flew into Iowa for a presidential rally at Drake University's Knapp Center in Des Moines. More than 7,000 people filled the center to capacity, with perhaps another 1,000 outside watching on a giant screen.
The president used the opportunity to mock his Democratic challengers, from Joe Biden to Bernie Sanders to Elizabeth Warren to Pete Buttigieg. "We're beating them all," he said. Like Reagan so many years before, he was messing with his opponents at a critical time.
But Trump was doing more than that. His visit was part of a carefully-planned campaign during the Iowa caucuses that focuses not on the caucuses but on the general election. Trump's campaign team knows well that Barack Obama won Iowa twice, in 2008 and 2012. Trump took it away from Democrats in 2016, and he will need to do it again in 2020.
So in addition to the visit, Trump is sending an A-list of his most prominent and reliable surrogates to spread across the state to speak at Monday's night's Republican caucuses. More than 80 of them, in fact, from the Trump family and the administration: Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Kimberly Guilfoyle, campaign manager Brad Parscale, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Housing Secretary Ben Carson, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, GOP Representatives Steve Scalise, Kevin Brady, Jim Jordan, Rodney Davis, Mark Meadows, Elise Stefanik, Matt Gaetz, conservative leaders Ken Blackwell, Ralph Reed, Jerry Falwell, Jr., and a long list of Iowa state officials. And don't forget Mike Lindell, the My Pillow guy.
Trump is also ramping up his already-formidable social media presence around the caucuses. And then there are the phone calls, text messaging, and online advertising. In all, it will be a serious and unprecedented effort. In a similar situation in 2004, incumbent President George W. Bush did not do much in Iowa. The same for incumbent President Obama in 2012. But Trump is diving in.
"Monday's Iowa Republican caucuses will be the first time anyone in America will be able to express their preference for Donald Trump as president," said a senior campaign aide in a recent conversation. "This is a flexing of organizational muscles. The GOP caucuses are going to take place, so why not take the opportunity to make a show of force?"
Trump is not making the effort because he is afraid of his two hapless Republican challengers, former Rep. Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld. Both are in Iowa seeking GOP support, but both are up against the wall of Trump's popularity among Iowa Republicans. And they face an unsolvable problem: they are too anti-Trump for Republicans, and too Republican for Democrats. So they appeal to very few voters.
Still, Trump has something to prove. Given his success in the 2016 GOP race, it is easy to forget that he started out by losing the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz. So he wants to make up for that. But more importantly, he wants to cement Iowans' support for his re-election. Plus, he wants to take advantage of the increased intensity of support among Republicans who believe Trump has been treated unfairly by Democrats in Washington.
"It's a powerful one-two punch at a time when people think he's being treated unfairly with impeachment," said Jeff Kaufmann. "I think it's a knockout punch, to be honest with you."
A knockout punch in Iowa, that is. And if that is indeed the case, Trump will again capture the state's six electoral votes, which could be critical if the race is closer than 2016. So he is campaigning in Iowa in February, even with no threat in the caucuses.
The Trump effort is not a secret; after all, a presidential visit is not exactly under the radar. But the Democratic race is understandably receiving nearly all of the media coverage. So Trump has been able to make a major effort for the general election with very little controversy even as his Democratic rivals struggle to make it through their party's caucuses. The goal: Have a key swing state in the bag before Democrats even choose their candidate.
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