A Polish Drone Factory Hit, an Italian Ammo Plant Burns. This Is the Warm-Up; the War Is Coming.

RedState 

Polish prosecutors said Monday that they suspect arson by a foreign intelligence service in a fire at a WB Electronics plant in Skarżysko-Kamienna, calling the blaze a “terrorist crime” involving the “deliberate setting of a fire.”

WB Electronics, one of Poland’s largest private defense firms, makes reconnaissance drones and loitering munitions, including FlyEye and Warmate, used by Ukraine against Russian forces. The factory fire broke out in the early hours of Monday.

Security video footage shows a masked intruder entering the perimeter just before the fire started. There was no significant damage because of the rapid response by company security personnel.

This marks the latest in a cluster of unfortunate occurrences in August 2026 afflicting NATO states that seem linked to those countries’ support for Ukraine.

On 7 August, Poland detained a Russian citizen in a plot to kill a person holding U.S. and Ukrainian citizenship in Warsaw. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the arrest on 13 August; see Report: Poland Foils Russian Hit on Ukrainian-American 'Inconvenient' to Putin – RedState. Polish prosecutors later opened a terrorism inquiry into a separate case: a fire at a WB Electronics drone plant in Skarżysko-Kamienna on 31 August.

Poland has been the main target of Russian operations.

In June, a Russian artist whose work criticised Putin was assassinated in Poland. Soon after, the Polish security services detained the suspected killer, who they said was using a Georgian passport.

Last month, a Russian missile hit Poland during intensive attacks on Ukraine. That followed an incident last year in which around 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace.

On the night of 4–5 August, German authorities found and disarmed an explosive-laden drone near Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport. The drone struck the cargo plane but failed to detonate. A second incident took place while the investigation was underway. This time, another cargo plane was struck by a drone as it attempted to land, but the drone was not recovered. A week later, yet another explosive drone was found near Leipzig/Halle Airport.

On 13 August, a fire at a KNDS Ammo Italy factory in Colleferro was followed by a large blast. The factory makes medium- and large-caliber artillery rounds that are transferred to Ukraine. No one was killed. Italian officials said they saw no sign of a Russian link.

As an ammunition factory in Italy was accidentally blowing itself to smithereens, a major transformer fire caused a power failure that forced ExxonMobil’s Esso refinery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, to shut down. At the same time, another refinery in Rotterdam was also hit by an explosion that killed one person and injured several others. Totally chance happenings: two refineries get shut down in the same night, in the same city, by explosions every other week.

That same morning, in Rotterdam’s Botlek section, a transformer fire affected units and flare-gas systems. Separately, an explosion at Gunvor Energy’s storage terminal killed one worker and injured six. Port authorities said the outage and the Gunvor blast appeared unrelated. Dutch police said there was no immediate sign of sabotage at Gunvor and that all scenarios remained under review.

One of the reasons for CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s no-notice expedition was reportedly to warn Putin that any attempt to reprise his 2014 aggression which seized Crimea and kicked off a war in the Donbas that led to the 2022 invasion would be strongly resisted by the United States. As a signal, Ratcliffe’s plane touched down in Riga, Latvia, before continuing on to Moscow. See “Both Sides Mum As CIA Head Ratcliffe Made Unannounced Visit to Russia. What Was He Doing There?”.

A decade ago, I laid out how a Russian operation against either Latvia or Estonia could unfold in a way that would not necessarily result in any action under the North Atlantic Treaty. See “How Putin Dismembers NATO Without Firing a Shot: A Scenario From the Cold War”. That scenario has grown more likely since Russia invaded Ukraine. See “Latvia Becomes the Newest Target for Russia’s Denazification Program”.

The Germans are concerned enough that they are also sending their own flaccid, dithering messages.

Relatedly, German NATO officials have been sending their own message/warning to Putin/Russia via leaks to Bild newspaper.  Remarkable military plans/details for a heavy counter attack against Russia.

It is no secret that Russian politico-military doctrine embraces the idea of “escalate to de-escalate.” Russian documents have advocated the first use of nuclear weapons as a way to show that Russia is serious, supposedly leading to a reduction in the threat environment. No one has ever explained how that would work unless it were applied against a nonnuclear, non-NATO nation. That said, Russian political fixture and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev has threatened to nuke Paris, Berlin or London at least monthly since the war in Ukraine began.

The current string of open and suspected Russian provocations is now running at a very high rate.

According to the Wall Street Journal, about 15 attacks per month are linked to Russian sabotage. Be sure to visit the link and look at the graph of attacks.

The tempo of documented Russia-backed incidents has increased from a maximum of around 10 in many months since 2024 to around 15 a month since April, according to Ukraine’s Sahaidachnyi Security Center, which tracks Russian gray zone activities in Europe. Sahaidachnyi analysts say trends can be difficult to discern because many incidents suspected of being linked to Russia aren’t included in their data.

As Russia’s economic situation deteriorates, Putin will be forced to choose between a larger conflict, which he might think winnable by intimidating the European nations supplying Ukraine with the wherewithal to defend its independence, and the current war, which he cannot win. Putin might opt for the larger war.