Conrad Black: Iran stands no chance against Donald Trump
The president's strategy may be confusing but the U.S. will ultimately prevail
Since U.S. President Donald Trump is acutely conscious of his credibility and of the retention of his power at home and in the world, and specifically of his leverage as commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military, there must be some indiscernible purpose in his waffling over what to do next in Iran. On March 21, he said that if there were any interference in the Hormuz Strait after 48 hours, he would begin destroying Iranian power plants.
Two days later, he extended his deadline for five days and then for a further 10 days, and then in an extremely coarse social media post on April 7, he threatened Iran that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if his terms were not met. A day later, he announced a further suspension of bombing for two weeks.
On June 11, he promised to hit Iran “very hard,” but a few hours later cancelled that. The so-called memorandum of understanding broke down days after it was signed and, on July 31, Trump began again promising to hit Iran “very hard.” But on August 1, that threat was inoperative and he claimed that “the perimeters of a deal (have) been agreed to,” which was promptly dismissed as fiction by the government of Iran.
On June 17, he had
said that Iran’s new leaders were ”very smart and much less radical” than the
previous crew whom the Americans and Israelis had killed. On July 8,
doubtlessly closer to the truth, he said that the same leaders were “scum.” All
this toing and froing is presumably a tactic of some sort, as Trump knows the
damage he has done to his own stature and standing as a result of these
vacillations. But whatever their intent, they do not erase the fact that the
United States and Israel did terrible damage to the military capability of Iran
with minimal casualties to themselves, and that the blockade the United States
imposed upon Iran (and has now reimposed) did immense economic damage to that
country.
This eccentric rope-a-dope tactic induces observers to forget
that the military phase of this conflict has been the most one-sided between
any serious combatant countries in modern history (the fall of France and the
Six-Day War of 1967 were gripping matches in comparison). It has also opened a
credibility gap, slightly reminiscent of Vietnam, with exaggerated claims of
the complete destruction of Iran’s missile strength as it continues to fire
missiles, though its strength has undoubtedly been severely reduced. It has
also persuaded the world that Trump is terrified by the November midterm
elections, which is bunk. This war is not now in the slightest onerous to the
United States. Nor is there any doubt that the U.S. Navy can assure passage
through the Strait of Hormuz.
The outcome of the midterm election will not be influenced by global gasoline prices unless Trump suddenly becomes torpid and inert. The U.S. is not a net energy importer, and it doesn’t have to observe the world oil price, and Trump is already accusing the oil companies of price gouging. Taxes make up a significant portion of the cost of gasoline, and Trump could easily give a short-term federal rebate on some of those taxes. Also, the Democrats are a much-despised party who have had no argument except witless Trump-hate for 10 years.
Even though the country is starting to get somewhat tired of
Trump, as it usually does with presidents at this stage, Trump-hate won’t fly,
especially with a party obligingly nominating droves of completely unfeasible
Marxist lunatics as candidates. Anyone who imagines that this subversive
Democratic dunciad is about to sweep America needs profound, ground-breaking
therapy.
Under no circumstance will Trump accept a defeat from Iran, and there are no possible circumstances that will impose a defeat upon him. The most likely outcome is that Trump will state that negotiations are useless because the United States would honour an agreement and Iran would not, so there is no point negotiating one. Instead, the United States will maintain an air-tight land, sea and air blockade on Iran and strangle it economically (while the People’s Republic of China scrambles to find a replacement source of oil). The U.S. will also guarantee passage of shipping through the strait and any Iranian attack on that traffic will be responded to at once with a high multiple of applied force, probably including the destruction of at least one power plant on each such infraction.
The Americans will continue this blockade until Iran convincingly agrees that it will end all pursuit of a nuclear military program, including the removal of enriched uranium, and cease the promotion of terrorism, specifically including Israel’s neighbours, and will not claim any right to control the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Until it accepts those conditions, it will be throttled economically and severely punished for transgressions. This would assure the victory of the United States. It would not necessarily remove the incumbent government of Iran. Trump has renounced any interest in who governs any foreign country as long as that country does not threaten the legitimate interests of the United States and of the civilized world.
This would not be at all a difficult policy
to sell to the country, and it does not necessarily involve any American
casualties or a substantial expenditure of ordnance, and it would certainly
eventually attain all of America’s objectives.
The contemporary floundering of Russia in Ukraine should also be recognized as the great victory for the West that it is. Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to revive the greater Russia of Peter the Great and Joseph Stalin. But Peter the Great advanced to the edges of central Europe at a time (early 18th century) when Germany and Italy were not unified and the Ottoman Empire was beginning to retreat from Europe. And Stalin got within a hundred miles of the Rhine in East Germany because U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt devised the policy whereby the Anglo-Americans liberated France and occupied Italy and Japan and most of Germany while Stalin took, as between the big three, a great majority of the casualties and the physical damage in subduing Germany and ended up with much less important strategic assets in the so-called satellite countries, all of which Russia was pledged to evacuate with free elections, as the western powers did with the countries that they liberated.
It took 45 years for these elections to be held in Eastern Europe
while the U.S.S.R. was subjected to the western containment policy, but
communism was rejected, and the Soviet Union disintegrated without a shot being
fired. The hideous regime in Iran can be defanged much more swiftly and easily
than was the U.S.S.R.
America is a hyper-active society and parts of it are always
in decay. But it possesses the genius of renovation. There are often
predictions of its decline, as in the Great Depression, and the times of
Vietnam, the financial crisis of 2008-9 and the many fiascoes of the Biden era.
Such suggestions are again audible, but they are just the envy and spitefulness
of the weak.
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