Gas Prices Need to Drop this Summer

American Thinker 

For the Iran war to be a political plus for Republicans in the midterms, it needs to end soon enough so gas prices start dropping this summer. President Trump knows this. After 11 years in national politics, if you aren’t convinced that Trump is a master politician, nothing will convince you.

Crushing Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions wins thumbs up. In and of itself, though, it won’t win many votes for congressional GOP candidates. Reality is reality. The Iranian threat is too many steps removed from voters’ daily lives. Paychecks and family budgets dominate. The projected median household income in 2026 is approximately $89,000. That’s not a fortune today. And it’s not parroting a Democrat talking point to express concern about costs. The president has acknowledged concerns. He’s assured voters that higher energy prices are temporary.

Trump swears that gas prices will “drop like a rock” when the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz opens fully. The catch is, when? Perhaps it’s an oversell for Trump to claim that prices will plummet, but they need only start declining to boost voter confidence.

During the Beijing summit, the president sat down for an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier. Baier pressed Trump on gas prices and costs generally. The president emphasized the economy’s good performance. He highlighted the stock market’s surge and benefits to retirement accounts. All true, but a lot of working people have modest retirement investments. Filling gas tanks and getting out of grocery stores without running up credit cards are weekly challenges.

Those concerns matter because working-class and middle-income voters are the Republican Party base now. Trump has been remaking the GOP for a decade. The likes of John Thune, Lisa Murkowski, and Bill Cassidy are repelled by what’s happening to their party. They miss all the country clubbers.

Recent Republican primary results in Indiana (six state senators who opposed redistricting lost their seats), Kentucky (Thomas Massie was ousted), and Louisiana (Cassidy was humiliated) demonstrates that the GOP marches to the beat of Trump’s drum. Texas awaits. John Cornyn is a likely loser to Ken Paxton, Trump’s pick.

Fact is, the very voters who are helping Trump reshape the GOP represent a broader voter segment who need energy costs to drop. Primary voters alone can’t swing general elections in competitive districts, which The Cook Political Report estimates as 35 CDs in lean/toss-up categories. The GOP has more toss-ups than do Democrats.

The president and White House advisors are keenly aware of the dilemma, and appreciate that a pivot by the summer is optimal. But the president needs to finish the war on satisfactory terms, meaning the Iranians stop nuclear weapons development and leave the Strait of Hormuz free to transit. Opening the Strait fully is key to cutting energy costs.

Democrats can’t afford to be smug. Public perception of the party is low. Theirs is a party of strange ideas, led in blue states and cities by incompetents and left-wingers whose connections to ordinary life are tenuous. Case in point, the mayor of Seattle Katie Wilson, who said, “Like bye,” when Starbucks announced it’s moving to Nashville. Wilson’s flippancy -- or idiocy -- guarantees that more Seattle businesses flee.

Just one other example, because Democrat Party screwballs are too numerous to cite.

James Talarico is the Texas Democrats’ nominee for the U.S. Senate. He’s a state rep and Presbyterian seminarian who proclaimed that “God is nonbinary” on the Texas House floor. He must have thought that this was his Martin Luther moment. Talarico’s proclamation conveniently dovetails with claims by woke apostles who believe God was created to conform to their daffy worldview. Most Texans don’t buy his tripe.

There’s also the endlessly unfolding massive fraud in Minnesota, Tim Walz’s turf. Taxpayer dollars were funneled to Somalis for their votes and, perhaps, to gain kickbacks. Gavin Newsom’s California appears plagued by worse corruption.

If Democrats and their corporate media cheerleaders believe that a blue wave is in the offing, it’s another example of how out of touch they are. Remember the 2022 midterms, when conservatives anticipated a red wave? Joe Biden’s presidency was sticking it to working folk, yet Republicans netted just nine House seats. The partisan divide is such that large gains by either party are unlikely.

Here’s the Republicans’ problem: Democrats don’t need a blue wave to capture the House. They only need to swing three seats to win control. Yes, redistricting has changed the equation some. More on that in a moment. Republicans’ thin margin, however, makes holding the House problematic even with falling gas prices. The outcomes of a handful of seats might hinge on local factors and personalities more so than national issues. In any event, Republicans need to buck history. A president’s party typically suffers some losses.

To buck history, Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson are, in part, counting on wins in new Republican districts to offset any losses in competitive seats.

Republican gains over Democrats in the redistricting war loom large. Red state legislators drawing new lines have boosted GOP chances. According to CNN’s redistricting tracker, so far, Republicans hold a 15-6 edge in the fight. That’s a nine-seat swing. Democrat failures to convert seats in Maryland, New York, and Virginia -- an epic botch -- were gifts.

Yet despite more favorable districts, turnout is critical. It always is, but especially in nonpresidential election years. Turning out your base voters and a slice of independents are keys to the GOP hanging onto the House. The Senate appears in better shape. The fear isn’t Trump voters switching allegiance. It’s that discouraged MAGA backers stay home.

This autumn will be a battle of the bases, and it can’t be overemphasized: Republican candidates need ground games second to none.

Take away energy costs, and Democrats really have nothing going for them. “Affordability” loses steam as a rallying cry if energy prices decline.

Democrats are against border security, soft on crime, shrug at government corruption, and want us to believe that gender can be changed like clothes. They’re for unlimited abortion. They’ve never met a Somali or illegal who doesn’t deserve government largess. Once, they claimed that Iran with nuclear weapons was unacceptable. Today, they decry the “inhumanity” of waging war on a regime that promotes “Death to America” as a cornerstone policy.

Trump, never shy of a fight, will take to the hustings this fall. The president and his team understand that the base will be more motivated to turn out for himthan your garden-variety Republican congressional candidate. It’ll be the second-to-last time that Trump on the stump matters to GOP fortunes. The last time will be 2028.

The guy who wrote The Art of the Deal is maneuvering to get a deal done with the Iranians by the summer. If he succeeds, and gas prices start to slide, Republican prospects to defy history brighten. Holding the House is tough, but never count out Donald Trump. Never.