Conrad Black: How Trump can defang Iran
It is entirely within this president's capabilities to decisively win the war, adding to his long list of achievements
The Iran war is now in an artificial stasis, in which practically all of the vast international coalition of people who are repelled and horrified by U.S. President Donald Trump, in the United States and elsewhere, have reflexively bought into the Iranian claim that since that ghastly regime has ostensibly survived, Iran is winning the war.
This is a false conception. This has been the most one-sided war between serious combatants in modern history. Iran has been deprived of much of its military capacity, including related defence production, and is now being tightly blockaded by sea. American casualties have been minimal.
Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and electrical grid, but is understandably reluctant to take such a step without having been evidently provoked by escalated violence from Iran. He has been inconvenienced by such interventions as those of Pope Leo XIV, who has unjustly criticized the United States while whitewashing the evil and blood-stained regime in Iran.
(The Holy See has also been relatively silent about the persecution of Christians in Nigeria and elsewhere, where the Trump administration has been of considerable assistance.)
When he
threatens escalation, the anti-Trump legions accuse him of barbarism and of
having plunged the country into a war that cannot be won without recourse to
rank inhumanity. When he turns to negotiation, it is TACO (Trump always
chickens out). But Iran and all of Trump’s critics are in positions of great
vulnerability.
Trump‘s
enemies, anti-Americans and critics of Israel generally have allowed the
semi-clerical thugocracy in Iran not only to put over the fraud that their
survival is a victory, but that the Americans have no way of winning because
Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz and generate an unsustainable worldwide
energy crisis before the U.S. can strangle Iran.
To complete
and accelerate that strangulation, the United States must destroy the
oil-storing and shipping capacity on Kharg Island, and seize or destroy Iran’s
floating oil reserve in a number of large tankers on the high seas or at
distant ports. These two steps are easily within the ability of the United
States, and if they are taken, Iran will be completely bankrupt and unable to
pay anybody, and particularly those who prop up the regime.
On the other
side, it will be a relatively easy task for the United States to assure the
full flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz from all exporters except Iran.
This will require organizing convoys of approximately 30 tankers three times
per day, placing U.S. Marines on board with equipment to take anti-drone and
anti-boarding party measures and assist in any necessary damage control.
Approximately
10 U.S. destroyers and some other specialized ships will be needed to clear
underwater drones and mines ahead of the convoys. The airspace above the
convoys would need to be completely controlled by U.S. jets, attack
helicopters, AC-130 gunships and other specialized aircraft capable of
immediately destroying swarms of small craft, drones and other intrusions.
Raiding parties of elite units to repel Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
attack positions would also need to be available.
Most oil
tankers are huge vessels that are adequately compartmentalized and not so easy
to sink if they cannot be subjected to sustained attack. Some readers will
recall that in the Reagan era, American-flagged tankers proceeded through the
Persian Gulf, and although they occasionally struck mines, none were sunk.
Repair facilities may have to be expanded just outside the strait to repair any
damage promptly.
All these
measures are also easily within the capacity of the U.S. armed forces. Trump
seems to be waiting to see if the Iranians can figure out for themselves the
advisability of securing peace, an end of sanctions and international
co-operation in rebuilding the country, in exchange for abandoning their
nuclear program, their sponsorship of international terrorism, their pretense
to having any ability to shut the Strait of Hormuz and a change of government.
Such a course would have the support of much of the population. If these
elements prevail and the promised policy corrections can be absolutely
verified, the war could end quickly.
In the more
likely event that the IRGC tenuously retains control, the United States will
have to eliminate Iran’s oil reserves and open the strait as described, and
Iran will be forced to capitulation within weeks. Trump‘s enemies will have to
move on, as they have almost no chance of having the last laugh in this war.
Trump hate
is a distinct and unique phenomenon and deserves a little analysis. The reasons
why people dislike him as a public personality are obvious and numerous. He is
gratuitously impolite to foreign leaders and countries, and his treatment of
Canada has been outrageous. His complaints about Europe and about “allies” that
in fact render no assistance to the United States, and essentially sponged off
the military and economic power of that country since the end of the Cold War,
are generally justified, but by traditional diplomatic standards could be more
elegantly expressed. Trump is a charming man personally, and in these matters,
he is pitching to the army of his supporters, and some of the antagonism he
arouses is a domestic political advantage.
Some of his
domestic opponents are frightened by his demolition of the traditional
bipartisan drift to the left in the U.S. The Democrats are right to fear his
ability to expose and counter their politicization of the intelligence agencies
and the Justice Department to destroy their opponents. They have orchestrated a
pathological defamation and obstruction campaign against Trump that is widely
imitated in Canada and goes far beyond a reasonable response to Trump‘s
frequent infelicities, gaucheries and gratuitous abrasions.
Trump has
revolutionized American politics and has a clear idea of how to retain an
adequate level of support within his own country to enact his radical program.
He knows that alliances are fraudulent to the extent that they pretend to be
anything other than co-operation against a shared threat, and unlike some of
his predecessors, he has no need to learn the truth of Lord Palmerston’s famous
assertion that nations have interests and not friends.
Because he
has been so egregious and yet so successful, he has pushed his domestic
opponents into the effective espousal of failed causes: supporting violent
criminals who entered the country illegally over the police whose task is to
remove and deport them; and supporting teachers’ unions that blackmail parents
with strikes, subvert students and allow state education to descend to the
level of daycare centres. The Democrats are supporting hideously expensive
universities as they produce millions of graduates in fields where they could
not possibly earn an income and Trump is pushing back. He has defeated the
forces of anti-American wokeism, sharply reduced violent crime rates, drug
prices, commercial regulation, the trade deficit and taxes generally. He has
restrained over-eager and under-aged sex-change operations and biological men
competing in women’s sports. He has ended the green terror.
He kicked
the othe NATO countries into a reasonable commitment for their own defence, is
removing Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and Iran as Russo-Chinese allies, and has
countered Chinese superiority in strategic minerals with America’s control of
most of China’s oil supply. Dislike of Trump is understandable, but it is a
mistake to underestimate him.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/how-trump-can-defang-iran
Post a Comment