Trump's High-stakes Gamble

American Thinker 

The combat operations against Iran are high stakes for President Trump. Donald Trump, a gamesman par excellence, is taking a big risk. But Trump is accustomed to high-stakes risks. Yet it’s also big stakes for Democrats, many of whom crawled out of their holes this past weekend. Many were found at X. Predators that they are, they believe that Trump has exposed his soft underbelly. Possibly. But they’re likely in for a surprise, and not a good one.

If the president succeeds and the murderous mullahs’ regime is consigned to history’s dustbin, benefits to U.S. national security will accrue from peace in the Middle East (the Abraham Accords gain traction), an end to mullah-instigated terrorism, an end to Iranian oil politics, and -- last but critically -- another prop knocked out from under China, which depends on Iranian oil. The PRC depends on Iranian and Russian oil in its drive to achieve global hegemony. And, not incidentally, Venezuelan oil, over which the U.S. has gained effective control. Trump is being vastly strategic. In this game of chess, his moves are designed to serve multiple ends. Careful calculation undergirds his audacity.

On the other hand, if the war fails -- if it’s protracted; if an aircraft carrier is sunk and scores of service personnel return home in body bags; if there are major Iranian-instigated terrorist attacks at home; if enough radical mullahs and Iranian Guard commanders survive and are still running the show -- then Trump’s presidency is finished. In this year’s midterm elections, the weird, leftist, mostly anti-American Democrat Party will roll up Republicans like Persian rugs. In part, because a lot of demoralized GOP voters won’t vote. Good luck to J.D. Vance or whoever is the GOP nominee in 2028. Putting enough distance between Vance or whoever and a war fiasco will be futile.

But there’s an alternative end. What if the U.S.-Israeli partnership and the Arab states now aligned against Iran accomplish the mission?

If success comes, Democrats are in trouble. Being on the wrong side of “mission accomplished” is bad politics.

On cue and in unison, Democrats first reaction to Saturday morning’s attacks was to denounce Trump for not requesting a Declaration of War from Congress. Sheer nonsense. The War Powers Resolution is what governs Trump’s actions for the next 60 days. He’s complying with the letter of the law. Democrats know better, of course. But they have no other line of attack. You can bet that they’re waiting for setbacks to pounce.

A win over Iran means Democrats lose the trifecta. The trifecta is the economy, immigration, and now, Iran -- or the end of a longtime national security threat. Heading into the midterms, that puts heavy winds in their faces, not at their backs.

As George Patton famously said, in part, “Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time.” Most Americans, that is, at least those living between the coasts. A win over Iran -- in reasonable time -- translates into surging popularity for the president. Ask Lincoln what happens when a controversial war shifts favorably. In 1864, the Atlanta victory saved Lincoln’s presidency and GOP congressional majorities.

What undercuts Democrats’ hopes for a failed war?

Warfare is being revolutionized by AI and detection and precision technologies. This war is being driven by cutting edge intelligence, the U.S. and Israeli Air Forces, and the U.S. Navy. Painstaking planning, months of surveillance, and precise execution by the Israelis eliminated the Ayatollah Khamenei and a large strata of Iranian military commanders. The Israelis continue to hunt and eliminate leadership. There will be no U.S. boots on the ground. No house-to-house fighting in the streets of Tehran. No forever war. No occupation and wholesale dismantling of government and no decades-long nation building commitment.

The evolving nature of warfare translates into smart and decisive execution and no letup in pressing the attack until the Iranian regime capitulates. This makes victory more, not less, likely. Democrat hopes for mire, body bags, and fruitlessness are in vain.

What does this say about the state of the Democrat Party? Only the progressive Democrat senator from Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, is publicly supporting the war effort. Fetterman is doing so at his political peril, according to polling. Commonwealth Republicans and independents have a favorable job approval opinion of Fetterman while Democrats have soured.

Democrats barely conceal their contempt for America. There are the usual suspects like Ihan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, but privileged, white Democrats in blue states -- mainstay constituents -- regard red America as the sum of what they hate: tradition, patriotism, faith, and family -- and a confident America overseas. California is their ideal -- a corruptly and incompetently run, failing enterprise. Blue cities -- Chicago is sliding down the tube -- are increasingly dystopian. Imagine what eight years of the Biden administration would have wrought?

How is the economy playing for Democrats? Affordability? Affordability problems exist in blue states, where bureaucratic oppression and high taxes and fees jack up costs.

Otherwise, the economy has begun picking up steam in the first quarter. Moderate solid growth is expected through the first half of the year. But the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill is being underestimated, per Goldman Sachs. Growth in the second have may surprise dour economists.

Could Gulf refineries slow production should the Iranians manage to hamper shipping through the Strait of Hormuz? As of this writing, the Strait is open. The Iranian navy is being sunk. The U.S. Navy and Air Force are hunting onshore missile and drone launchers.

The final major issue, immigration. Strike Three. The Democrats have already lost this issue bigly. The borders have been closed for many months. Deportations near three million. Despite Tim Walz’s and Jacob Frey’s theater in Minnesota and Minneapolis, ICE continues to accomplish its mission there.

Three big wins doesn’t mean that Republicans will rack up a slew of victories in the midterms. Gerrymandering is nearly an exact science now. There are very few competitive U.S. House districts. The GOP House majority hinges on holding a handful of those seats. There are many variables that will impact outcomes.

Let’s be clear. The jury is out on the war, but the opening phases are encouraging. If Democrats lose the trifecta -- if the war with Iran is resolved expeditiously -- then, along with a solid economy and successful immigration enforcement, Democrats face a bleak electoral landscape in November and 2028. Trump will increasingly be considered an historic figure. What will that leave Democrats with? Whoopi and her chums on “The View” shaking their fists and calling Trump a fascist over and over again?

Yep.