Expect Chaos in Cuba

American Thinker 

The Communist dictatorship in Cuba is on its last legs. For decades, it had a parasitical relationship with the Soviet Union, which kept it alive economically, militarily, and politically. The Soviet Union was able to last for as long as it did because it was truly gargantuan, spanning two continents and filled with natural resources which the government utilized to stave off the inevitable end of all Marxist regimes. But when it, in turn, collapsed, Cuba’s economy took an even deeper dive than before, euphemistically referred to as the “Special Period.”

Then, oil-rich Venezuela, the wealthiest country in South America, became Communist and extended a lifeline to Cuba while it, too, oppressed its people and ruined the country. With the arrival of Donald Trump, that lifeline is now gone. Cuba has no oil and we can see what happens when fossil fuels disappear (paying attention, global warmists?).

Thanks to decades of Communist rule, Cuba is as decrepit as Haiti. Yes, that bad. Buildings and homes are literally disintegrating each year due to the harsh Caribbean sun and sea air, the inhabitants unable to repair the damage, and there are piles of garbage on the streets (it is hard to imagine that Havana and many other Cuban cities were once pristine). Food is scarce. In cities, there are certain spots that are livable, even beautiful. They are either for Cuba’s nomenklatura or where tourists -- particularly Canadian, French, and Spanish Communists -- stay and visit. Ordinary Cubans rarely eat fish -- and Cuba is an island in the Caribbean! And sugar, for which the country was famous and resulted in the Dance of the Millions during WWI? Nope.

The reader may be aware that Zimbabwe was once a breadbasket. Under black Communist rule, it, too, has had to import food.

Incidentally, something that has not been acknowledged is that the Communist regime would have been overthrown long ago, except that escaping to Florida was a pressure valve that sent the potentially most dangerous foes overseas (even so, there have been occasional outbursts, the most well-known being “El Maleconazo”). This is similar to what happened after the Russians crushed the Hungarian revolt; after some hesitation, the Soviet and Hungarian Communists opened the border to let the Hungarian fighters emigrate to Austria; this safety valve was recorded in a much-neglected work by James Michener, The Bridge at Andau.

The Communists in America and Canada have always insisted the reason for decrepitude in Cuba is not Communism but the American embargo, omitting the fact that there are over a hundred countries that can trade with Cuba. They will voice compassion for the suffering Cubans as a result of the embargo while being noticeably catatonic when it comes to the persecution, jailing, or execution of political prisoners and of the Ladies in White (it’s fascinating seeing leftists turn on and off the compassion spigot at will). They will also forget -- deliberately so -- that the embargo does not apply to food or medicine, though the items have to be paid for with cash. Credit by U.S. banks is not going to be allowed, mostly because the Communist government has defaulted on previous foreign loans. Their stance is not too surprising when one takes into account that some liberals have denied the Cambodian genocide by the Khmer Rouge took place.

The regime is obviously crippled with the Venezuelan oil supply cut off. And Trump, through Marco Rubio, has set his sights on it, but unlike the Venezuelan and Iranian dictators, it has wisely not challenged the Americans to come and try to invade the island. Regardless, there are reports of demonstrations against the government, which are becoming more violent and more vengeful, carried out in the dead of night since the island goes entirely dark after sunset due to lack of energy. There are reports of at least one office of the Communist Party being torched. It’s a good start.

So if the government collapses, or is overthrown, don’t expect a peaceful transition of power as was the case in Czechoslovakia or Hungary or East Germany. Expect a bloodbath. Cubans are very vengeful. And they have decades of anger, suffering, and deprivation to fuel that overdue bloodbath. The rulers know this. If the regime makes a deal with Trump on time in order to obtain some oil it might, just might survive, albeit weakened, but if Trump and Rubio walk away and keep the pressure on, it’s the end.

Incidentally, notice that the demonstrations in Cuba are not anti-American (after all, the Cubans are not liberals). And they are not protesting the boycott.

And speaking of liberals, be prepared to see hordes of liberal white saviors with their prefabricated signs taking to the streets while claiming to speak for the Cuban people against Trump, just like they have been telling Iranian and Venezuelan exiles that they know better than the Venezuelans and Iranians themselves. I cannot tell you how many times liberals who cannot even speak Spanish and know nothing about pre-Castro history, nor Cuban culture, have lectured me about how wonderful life is in Cuba under the Communist dictatorship. For decades, liberals in America and other countries demonized Cuban-Americans, and attacked in one way or another Cuban-Americans who spoke out against the regime, from Paquito D’Rivera to Andy Garcia to Camila Cabello.

There exists one difference, though. Since the beginning, the Cuban dictatorship sent to the United States hundreds of agents as “refugees” to infiltrate Cuban-American organizations, and liberal ones as well (I suspect there were some in the Biden Administration), and for just plain espionage. It appears that some are already beginning to make noise over the present situation. For example, in an American Communist website, there is a photo of just such a group. Notice several things: one, almost all wearing red shirts, two, they have their raised clenched fist (the clenched fist as a Communist salute emerged in the 1930s as a response to the Nazi salute), third, their prefabricated signs have the picture of Che Guevara, and fourth, they refer to the embargo as the American blockade. “Blockade,” not an embargo, is the word that the regime has used on its people and foreign sympathizers to explain the shortages of everything, to give the impression that nothing can get through. I suspect that if the regime does fall, these agents will not return to Cuba.

And if the Cuban regime is overthrown, what then? Chaos. There is no organized resistance in the country that could take over. Possibly there may be a military coup d’etat. Possibly Cuban-Americans will step in. Either way, do not expect the new government to pay off the defaulted national debts and diplomatic agreements of the previous government.

As for the long run, a new constitution is ready that takes into account all the historical mistakes in governments, as well as the special Cuban circumstances.

But chaos or no chaos, anything will be an improvement over Communism.