Donald Trump’s Psychological Smackdown of Iran — and What Will Happen Next
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle
—Sun Tzu, The Art of War
If you could distill PR and marketing to a single sentence, it’d be, “What do I gotta say so you’ll do what I want?” Meaning, it’s 100% outcome based: Theories are fun, but reality is the ultimate litmus test.
Which is why, to build a PR war plan, we only need three ingredients:
- An honest, accurate assessment of where we are today.
- An honest, accurate assessment of what motivates our target audience.
- A clear picture of where we want to be tomorrow (i.e., what “victory” looks like).
That’s it. All the rest is simply a roadmap between today and tomorrow (sprinkled with tactics, measurables, and mile markers). If you know where you are and where you’d like to be, everything else falls into place.
“Know the enemy and know yourself” — Sun Tzu would’ve rocked at PR.
The Iraq War introduced the phrase “shock and awe” into the public lexicon, relying on the PR power of big booming bombs. Undoubtedly, the psychological impact was significant; how could it not be?
Whereas the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war in Iran was surely shocking and aweing to many Iranian mullahs (especially all the dead ones), it probably pales in comparison to either Iraq war. Iran, after all, is nearly four times larger geographically, and in Iraq, more air forces were running more bombing raids.
Stands to reason that more bombs in a smaller area would be more shocking and awe-inspiring.
Plus, today’s U.S. and Israeli bombs and missiles are increasingly targeted, “smart,” and ultra-precise. In the Persian Gulf War, barely 9% of our bombs were smart bombs. It’s unclear what percent of U.S. and Israeli bombs are currently “smart,” but it’s certainly a much larger number.
It’s also unclear what that means: Are ultra-precise, target-specific bombs and missiles MORE psychologically devastating? Or do larger quantities of randomly-landing bombs and missiles deliver a heavier psychological blow?
These are relevant questions because war is a tool — a means to an end. And the endpoint we’re trying to reach is for the Iranian regime to capitulate, stand down, and cede to President Donald Trump’s demands.
Like Carl von Clausewitz said, “War is politics by other means.”
Both Bush presidencies relied purely on military hardware to crack the enemy’s resolve. Their strategy was straightforward, loud, and booming — just like the bombs themselves.
But one of the things that differentiates President Trump from his predecessors is his outside-the-box thinking. More than any other president in the past 100 years, he’s willing to try new and novel ways to slice the Gordian knot. Both Bushes were creatures of the status quo, but the current president marches to his own drummer. From tariffs to Greenland to “Governor Trudeau” to the Gulf of America, he’s unusually gifted at weaponizing psychological PR tactics.
The English used to be the best at it. From intercepting and publicizing Napoleon’s love letters to their Andrew Dice Clay-esque nursery rhymes about Adolf Hitler’s unfortunate deformities, they were so good at it, Joseph Stalin said at the 1943 Tehran(!) Conference that World War II would be won with “British brains, American steel, and Soviet Blood.”
That was then. Today, U.S. intelligence and Israeli ingenuity have supplanted the Brits at psychological warfare. America’s capabilities are unrivaled anywhere in the world, and Israel’s winning streak of innovative psychological victories — perhaps most notably, its “Grim Beeper” operation that decapitated Hezbollah — keeps growing.
According to some reports, it was American intelligence that learned of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s secret meeting with Iranian leaders; others credit Israel. Either way, the combination of Mossad + IDF + CIA + U.S. Armed Forces has rattled Iran to its core.
In fact, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Israelis are actually chatting with high-ranking Iranians:
The Journal reviewed the contents of one call between a senior Iranian police commander and an agent of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign-intelligence service.
“Can you hear me?” a Mossad agent can be heard, speaking in Farsi. “We know everything about you. You are on our blacklist, and we have all the information about you.”
“OK,” the commander said in the recording.
“I called to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people’s side,” the Mossad agent said. “And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader. Do you hear me?”
“Brother, I swear on the Quran, I’m not your enemy,” the commander said. “I’m a dead man already. Just please come help us.”
So imagine the psychological profile of the handful of Iranian leaders who still live: They’re probably over 60. Their colleagues are vanishing by the day. After Mossad made everyone’s beeper go boom, they’re terrified of electronic devices. They don’t know who to trust.
And that was before President Trump announced that he’s been conducting secret negotiations with one or more unnamed high-ranking Iranians!
Whether real or not, President Donald Trump’s statement that Iran has reached out for talks is already having an impact: fueling mistrust within Tehran leadership while easing tensions in global oil markets, even as Iranian officials deny any such contact.
[…]
[Trump] is using ambiguity as a political and psychological weapon inside the Islamic Republic. By saying he has been talking to a very senior Iranian figure without naming that person, he is planting doubt and suspicion among what remains of the leadership.
In current conditions, that matters. Iran’s leaders are living in hiding. Command centers are disrupted. Communications are limited out of fear of interception and assassination.
Meetings are difficult, if not impossible. In that setting, a statement like this will be deeply unsettling. Each senior figure will now be asking: Who is talking to Washington? Who is looking for an off-ramp? What is being hidden from the others?
By naming no one, Trump makes everyone in Tehran wonder who is talking to Washington.
This does not affect only the top. Lower-ranking officials also hear the same message. If they begin to believe that some of their leaders are quietly searching for a way out, they will become more uncertain, more demoralized, and more open to defection.
No matter who came up with the idea (You’re welcome, America!), it represents a new chapter in this conflict. We’re not just shocking and aweing ‘em militarily — we’re now shocking and aweing ‘em psychologically.
President Trump’s announcement accomplished three things:
- If one of the Iranian leaders is conducting unauthorized negotiations with the United States, that’s treason. Which means, the mullahs know there’s a traitor within their midst — but they don’t know who he is. Nobody can trust anyone anymore, lobotomizing the remaining brain-trust.
- If top officials are cutting sweetheart deals with the Americans, it puts pressure on everyone else to jump ship, too. Being the last man standing in a dying regime is a death sentence. Which means, it’s every man for himself.
- If you’re a high-ranking mullah with aspirations of being the next Supreme Leader, you better start negotiating with the Americans, too. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!
Over the next several days, the Iranian paranoia will steadily escalate. Whenever a top mullah goes silent, the others will have no idea if he’s dead — or if he’s defected. There will be rumors and conspiracies swirling 24/7, and the remaining mullahs — who are too terrified of Mossad’s black magic to use their smartphones or beepers — won’t know who’s telling the truth.
And the more they stay silent, the more these conspiracies will grow.
Meanwhile, if the Iranian people believe the regime is in near-total disarray, it’ll inspire them to rise up when the bombing stops and retake their country. The probability of a successful rebellion has just dramatically increased.
If the mullahs no longer believe the regime will survive, why should anyone else?
Which means, we won’t need to send ground troops into Iran to achieve regime change — because the Iranian people are the ground troops. They’ll march by the millions, demanding an end to their tyranny.
One of the errors of the Iraq War was focusing exclusively on military success, and not nearly enough on the psychology of the people. And then, when the war ended, we were ill-prepared to manage the aftermath. Far too many young Americans died because of it.
President Trump is no Bush I or Bush II. He’s not simply cracking the regime militarily; he’s shattering it psychologically.
And that’s why this time will be different.
AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez
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