A War Next Door? Pakistan-Afghanistan Clash — And Why India Is Watching Closely | Exclusive

India is closely watching the situation as tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have spiralled into fresh cross-border conflict. For India, the stakes go beyond immediate security concerns, touching upon strategic stability in its extended neighbourhood, the risk of militant spillover, and shifting geopolitical equations involving China and the United States.

Pakistan had initially welcomed Kabul's fall and the Taliban's return to power in 2021, with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan saying that Afghans had "broken the shackles of slavery." But tensions started rising between the two neighbours as Islamabad found that the Taliban were not as cooperative as it had hoped. Pakistan has been accusing Afghanistan's Taliban government of supporting "anti-Pakistan terrorists" who it blames for carrying out suicide attacks in Pakistan, including a recent one at a mosque in Islamabad.

Analysts in India said that it was shocking to witness Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of being involved in what it has been doing for decades - sheltering and backing terrorists. "There is a certain Karma at play here since Pakistan is accusing the Afghan Taliban of doing exactly what it does to India: encourage cross-border terrorism. Pakistan should really aim at a zero terrorism South Asia by not allowing terrorism across the border in India and asking Afghanistan to do the same," former IFS officer Ajay Bisaria, who has served as India's envoy to Pakistan, told Times Now.

“It is striking that Pakistan today finds itself in open tension with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, a movement it was widely perceived to have supported over several decades. Islamabad currently argues that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates from safe havens inside Afghanistan, posing serious security challenges to Pakistan, conveniently forgetting how it shelters several terrorist organisations,” Dhananjay Tripathi, Senior Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations at the South Asian University (SAU), told Times Now.

What Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict Means for India

The recent clashes, if not resolved through dialogue, could trigger instability in the region, which could have implications for counterterrorism efforts and wider South Asian security calculations for New Delhi. "From India’s perspective, regional stability remains critical. A politically destabilised Afghanistan could generate security spillovers affecting the wider South Asian region. Any escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan therefore carries long-term strategic implications for regional security. The key concern for regional actors, including India, should be preventing renewed instability that could once again transform Afghanistan into a theatre of proxy competition,” Professor Tripathi said.

 

"Pakistan has often sought strategic depth in Afghanistan, while successive Afghan governments have resisted external influence. The current friction appears partly driven by the Taliban’s attempts to assert political autonomy and diversify diplomatic engagement, including outreach to regional actors such as India," he added.

India’s Stand in Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

India has so far maintained a cautious distance, and there have been no official statements as of yet. However, New Delhi's past positions and regional interests offer key clues to how it may respond if the crisis deepens. India has traditionally supported an independent, sovereign, and stable Afghanistan and invested significantly in development and infrastructure projects there, Tripathi said.

After Sunday strikes, India’s Ministry of External Affairs had denounced the deaths of Afghan civilians. "India strongly condemns Pakistan's airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan. It is another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures," MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said.

In October last year as well, India had come out in support of Afghanistan, lashing out at Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism and then blaming its neighbours. “Three things are clear – one, that Pakistan hosts terrorist organisations and sponsors terrorist activities. Two, it is an old practice of Pakistan to blame its neighbours for its own internal failures, and three, Pakistan is infuriated with Afghanistan exercising sovereignty over its own territories," Jaiswal had said.

Ceasefire Falters, Fresh Conflict Between Pakistan-Afghanistan - What's Next

On Thursday night, Afghanistan launched strikes on Pakistan along the border in retaliation for the Sunday strikes. Pakistan's several check posts along the border were captured, and soldiers were killed in the attack, according to Afghanistan's Taliban government. In response to this, Pakistan carried out airstrikes in multiple cities of Afghanistan, including its capital Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia province in the southeast on Friday morning, under 'Operation Ghazab lil Haq'.

On Sunday, Pakistan's military carried out strikes along the border with Afghanistan, saying it had killed at least 70 militants. However, Afghanistan rejected the claim, saying dozens of civilians had been killed, including women and children and called the strikes a violation of the country's airspace and sovereignty.

Pakistan has declared an "open war" against Afghanistan, and the fresh clashes mark a sharp escalation in tensions between the two Asian neighbours and threaten the ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkiye.

 

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