The Dominos Begin to Fall

American  Thinker 

The Domino Theory was a strategic concept popular in the 1950s and 1960s, which asserted that once one country succumbed to Communism, its neighbors would soon follow.

Because it was widely cited to justify the unpopular U.S. wars in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, it fell out of favor by the 1970s. That didn't mean it wasn't true.

Today, I believe we will soon witness an updated version of the Domino Theory. President Trump is calling it the "Donroe Doctrine," but I think it goes way beyond the Western Hemisphere.

The takedown of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and the apparent subservience of his successor, will have far-reaching consequences in Russia, Iran, and Communist China, but also in Europe.

Last Wednesday, the U.S. Coast Guard conducted back-to-back operations to intercept and board two "ghost fleet" oil tankers, one in the North Atlantic and the other in international waters near the Caribbean.

Both vessels "were either last docked in Venezuela or en route to it," DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a tweet.

The Bella 1, a supertanker headed for Venezuela from Iran to collect Venezuelan oil, was first intercepted by the Coast Guard off the Venezuelan coast on December 17, but went dark and escaped into the North Atlantic.

While fleeing U.S. pursuers, the crew painted over the vessel's name with that of a ship registered to the Russian Federation, the Marinera, but it was intercepted and boarded on January 7 in heavy seas off the coast of Ireland. It was a scene right out of the Nicholas Cage movie, Lord of War.

The U.S. ignored Putin's claim of sovereignty over the vessel and has vowed to pursue the 300-vessel ghost fleet used by Russia, Iran, China, and Venezuela to evade U.S. sanctions wherever it sails.

Not only is this an America First national security policy, but it also makes for great television, with videos of Coast Guardsmen rappelling down from hovering MH-60 Jayhawk helicopters onto the decks of supertankers in roiling seas.

The Chinese had been big allies of Maduro for years, but the regime's slovenly approach toward business convinced Chinese state-run businesses to seek opportunities elsewhere in the western hemisphere, primarily Brazil.

China's malign influence in our hemisphere could be the next domino to fall. But the President has said, graciously, that we won't stop them from purchasing Venezuelan oil. In the future, however, the Chinese won't be getting the $20-per-barrel discount Maduro had been giving them. They will pay full freight, and the proceeds will be shared by Venezuela and the U.S. Treasury.

The biggest losers regarding Venezuela, beyond the narco-traffickers, are Iran and its ally, Hezb'allah. And that's where the dominoes are going to fall hard and heavy.

For decades, the Iranians have been building missile factories in Venezuela, under the guise of tractor production. In 2022, they signed a 20-year cooperation agreement with Maduro that included additional arms sales, defense plants, and oil field technology.
The deal gave Iran a logistics hub in the Western hemisphere to evade U.S. sanctions and its ally Hezb'allah a base from which to infiltrate terrorists across our southern border. By 2023, you could see the Iranian presence in Venezuelan military parades.

The Venezuelan navy also began to operate Iranian go-fast missile boats (top speed: 54 knots), armed with supersonic sea-skimming cruise missiles. All that will soon be gone.

I would not like to be an Iranian leader today. They see that when President Trump says he will do something, he does. And he has told them that if they start to massacre protesters, the U.S. is "locked and loaded" and ready to take them out.

That massacre has already begun.

On Thursday, the regime cut off the internet, just as Iranians across the country responded to a call from exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to "make noise" at 8 PM -- in the streets, at home, on the rooftops.

From around 45 protest-related deaths until then, the number has skyrocketed, with some estimates putting the death toll at over 2,000 over the past few days.

As always, the regime likes to kill in the dark. Hence, the importance of shutting down the internet.

I happen to believe that the United States has many ways of influencing events inside Iran -- and of making good on the President's threat of a "red line" -- without going into the country guns a'blazing.

For starters, the Iranian regime is intensely paranoid. After the 12-day war in June that took out their nuclear plants, they believe 1) that Israeli spies are everywhere, and 2) the United States military is a force to be feared.

When Ayatollah Khamenei sees Maduro taken away in handcuffs, he can feel those handcuffs slipping over his wrists in his dreams.

How do you keep from engaging in forever wars? By demonstrating the awesome power of the U.S. military, and instilling fear in potential adversaries.

There are no U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela, nor any immediate plans to send them there. This president has demonstrated the big stick; now he can speak softly and be obeyed.

It's entirely possible that he could take down the mullahs in Iran with words alone.

But add to that targeted cyberattacks against the regime's command, control, and communications, and a few drones launched against the foreign thugs the regime is importing from Iraq to kill protesters, and I think the United States can give the Iranian domino a fatal push.

The 1979 revolution took a full year to succeed. In our cyber age, this one could happen much more quickly.