Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral platform :
NY us facing crisis !
his platform rests on a
compact set of major commitments: a rent freeze; a
200,000-unit public housing build; universal childcare; free buses; the
creation of a Department of Community Safety to expand non-policing responses;
and higher taxes on the city’s wealthiest households and corporations to fund
the entire package.
Each promise
sounds simple in campaign language. The arithmetic of city budgets,
construction markets, and transit operations makes them far more complex.
The
president of the Citizens Budget Commission in New York, Andrew Rein, tells the
New York Sun that any serious discussion of the candidate’s program must begin
with its scope.
“We’re
talking about billions of dollars before any expansion. New York City and New
York State don’t actually control all of that structure,” he said. “If you want
to make progress on affordability — whether housing, rent, childcare, and
related issues — you need a meaningful long-term strategy.”
Housing:
The Cost Uncertainty of “$100 Billion”
Mr. Mamdani
has pledged to deliver 200,000 permanently affordable, union-built homes over a
10-year period, alongside a rent freeze. The campaign estimates the cost of the housing program
at approximately $100 billion. To determine whether that is realistic requires
looking at per-unit costs.
Recent
projects demonstrate the cost of building affordable housing in New York. A
2023 East New York development backed by Goldman Sachs delivered 385
apartments at a total cost of $270 million, or approximately $700,000 per unit,
once land and commercial space were factored in. Broader data shows a range:
Some lower-density or outer-borough projects run closer to $180,000 per unit,
while dense, centrally located projects can exceed $700,000.
Based on
those figures, constructing Mr. Mamdani’s 200,000 units would cost between
nearly $40 billion at the low end and $140 billion at the high end. To remain
within the candidate’s $100 billion budget, the city would have to hold the
per-unit cost to an average of $500,000 over a decade.
Achieving
that would require consistent land acquisition strategies, procurement reform,
effective union negotiations, and state or federal subsidies to supplement city
dollars. Otherwise, the program could substantially overshoot the $100 billion
mark.
One source
with close ties to New York politics, who requested their name not be used for
professional reasons, points to regulatory hurdles as the “single biggest thing
that went wrong” with housing in New York.
“Our
regulatory system is one of the most intensive in the country. We need to
reform that if we’re serious about affordability,” the insider tells the Sun.
A Manhattan
Institute senior fellow, Allison Schrager, is skeptical that Mr. Mamdani could
overcome those entrenched costs and processes.
“No other
blue city has been effective at building housing cheaply,” she tells the Sun.
“And he doesn’t have executive experience that would suggest he could cut
through red tape and special interests.”
Universal
Childcare: Scale and Fiscal Burden
Mr.
Mamdani’s platform also calls for universal childcare. The New York City
Comptroller reports the average annual cost of center-based infant care in the
city is $26,000 while family-based care averages $18,200. Those sums reflect
increases of 43 percent and 79 percent respectively, since 2019. By
affordability standards, a family would need to earn more than $330,000 per
year on average to afford such care without exceeding 7 percent of their income.
The city has
already expanded subsidies in recent budgets. The Fiscal Year 2026 plan
includes $423.4 million for childcare vouchers, supplemented by $350 million in state funds, with an additional $10
million to expand infant-toddler slots. These, however, are partial
measures.
To achieve
universal coverage, New York would need to provide care for more than 100,000
children under the age of 3. At subsidy rates of about $7,500 per year per child, the
annual cost could exceed $800 million, and potentially run much higher if
extended to older children or full-day services.
Mr. Rein
warned that universal childcare at the city level is “really a federal-level
challenge” requiring “enormous resources.”
“Delivering
it fully is very difficult without state and federal partnership,” he
said.
Recurring
Operating Pressures: Free Buses and Community Safety
Other planks
of Mr. Mamdani’s agenda also carry significant annual operating costs.
Eliminating bus fares would remove a primary revenue source for the
Metropolitan Transportation Authority.
In 2024,
fare and toll evasion alone cost the MTA approximately $1
billion, with $568 million attributed to unpaid bus fares. Scrapping fares
entirely would convert that revenue hole into a policy issue, requiring new
subsidies or city transfers to maintain service.
“If the
argument for free buses is that currently people ride without buying a ticket,
that is the wrong solution,” an economist and CEO of the Empire Center for
Public Policy, Zilvinas Silenas, tells the Sun. “It is tantamount to saying
that a solution for shoplifting is making goods free. Fare avoidance can and
should be solved with enforcement and technology, not capitulating to those who
don’t feel like paying.”
He added
that if affordability is the concern, targeted subsidies to welfare recipients
could provide limited free rides without destabilizing the system.
Ms. Schrager
also expressed doubts.
“I don’t see
how he pulls that off. A lot of people don’t pay for the bus now anyway. The
MTA is always on the verge of running out of money,” she said. “I can’t imagine
this helps.”
Ms. Schrager
also warned that free buses could “attract more homeless or mentally disturbed
people, which would drive away the few riders who are willing to pay.”
Some of Mr.
Mamdani’s other proposals tap into a broader debate over whether New York
should continue pouring resources into traditional policing or experiment with
shifting some of those responsibilities to social services.
Mr. Mamdani
has expressed plans to overhaul security mechanisms across the five boroughs by
creating a new Department of Community Safety. The agency would deploy social
workers, crisis responders, and “Transit Ambassadors” to respond in place of
police to non-violent calls; expand gun-violence prevention; and boost funding
for hate-violence programs by 800 percent.
While his
campaign frames this as a public health approach to safety, analysts warn that
building a new city agency of this scope would incur recurring annual costs in
the billions, far exceeding the pilot-level programs New York has funded to
date.
Ms. Schrager
cautioned that Mr. Mamdani’s ambivalence toward policing could “make the city
less safe,” discouraging tourism and hurting the economy.
The
political insider, however, said there may be opportunities to reassign roles
within the NYPD to save costs while broadening the definition of safety.
“Police
presence definitely helps reduce crime, but we as New Yorkers also need to
think broadly about what public safety means, across different departments,”
said the source.
Government
Grocery Stores
Mr. Mamdani
has also proposed a network of city-owned grocery stores to combat so-called
“food deserts.” His campaign argues these would make sure that “healthy food is
available and affordable in every neighborhood,” subsidized through public
funding.
Critics say
the math doesn’t add up. In August, the American Enterprise Institute described Mr. Mamdani’s plan as resting
on “an accounting error,” warning that government-run grocery operations
would require constant subsidies to cover
labor, rent, and spoilage.
Mr. Silenas
was even more blunt, stressing that the “entire idea is driven by the ideology
of government taking over business, not solving any real problem.”
“There are
two ways in which the NYC government-run grocery could provide goods at lower
prices. First, recall that even with government-owned stores, you must pay
suppliers and workers, so the only way the stores could offer lower prices is
by being better at retail business than the current grocery stores, which I
find hard to believe,” he continued.
“Second, if
the entire plan rests on the assumption that these stores will operate out of
government buildings, will not have to pay rent or property taxes, then this is
a blatant case of government giving preferential treatment to their companies.”
“If
anything,” Mr. Silenas surmised, “it will make life for small businesses in NYC
even more difficult.”
“This is not
economic justice, it is a government takeover,” he added. “If Mamdani wanted to
lease out empty government buildings or lower property taxes to all stores,
that would be a step in the right direction.”
Financing
via a Millionaire Surcharge: Potential and Risks
To pay for
housing and other priorities, Mr. Mamdani proposes a 2 percent surcharge on
income above $1 million. Proponents argue such a levy could yield $5 to $15
billion annually, with $10 billion as the common midpoint. Over a decade, that
scale of revenue could match the $100 billion housing bill.
But the
revenue is far from guaranteed.
“New York is
very dependent on a small number of large taxpayers — maybe 200 or so. The odds
that even a couple of them leave could undermine the plan,” Ms. Schrager said.
He pointed
out that New York City cannot unilaterally impose such a
surcharge without approval from the state legislature. Albany’s approval is far
from certain, he added, noting that Governor Kathy Hochul has expressed
reluctance to embrace new surcharges.
Mr. Rein
also raises concerns.
“New York
City already has very high taxes. We collect more per capita in personal income
tax than any other state,” he explained. “We have the highest marginal personal
income tax in the country. There’s concern about the impact.”
Higher rates
have already prompted investment to slow and some wealthy residents to leave.
IRS
migration data show New York lost roughly 100,000 residents and $13.8
billion in adjusted gross income from 2018 to 2022, shrinking the tax base that
Mr. Mamdani’s plan depends on.
“If you add
revenue, you need to make sure schools, housing, and services actually see
improvements,” Mr. Rein emphasized.
If new
collections reach only $5 billion annually, the
city would raise just half of the housing plan’s cost, forcing tough choices:
borrow more; cut services; or seek federal aid.
Borrowing
would increase the city’s $95 billion debt, while cuts could affect schools,
sanitation, policing, or housing, and federal support is neither predictable
nor guaranteed. Without full funding, painful trade-offs could undermine the
very services the plan promises to deliver.
Debt
Constraints and Fiscal Reality
Mr.
Mamdani’s proposals must also be considered in light of New York City’s
existing debt load. As of Fiscal Year 2025, the city’s outstanding debt
was projected to be $94.9 billion, with
annual debt service costs of $8.8 billion, accounting for nearly 11 percent of
total spending. Debt service is projected to grow as borrowing for capital
projects continues.
Credit
rating agencies, while currently rating New York strongly, have consistently
flagged rising debt service as a vulnerability.
“Suppose we
have a financial crisis — not caused by him, just a normal recession. We’re
very dependent on the financial sector, whether he likes it or not,” Ms.
Schrager said. “If revenues go down and he raises taxes, that drives people
out. At the same time, pension funds would be hit. That could create a real
fiscal crisis.”
New
large-scale capital commitments — such as a $100 billion housing program
— would almost certainly require additional borrowing unless fully funded by
new revenues. That, in turn, could significantly increase debt service costs,
potentially crowding out other priorities in future budgets. Universal
childcare and fare-free buses, meanwhile, add recurring operating expenses that
cannot be financed with bonds and must be supported by ongoing revenue streams.
The Gaps
in the Numbers
Mr.
Mamdani’s platform would commit tens of billions to housing, billions more for
childcare, fare-free buses, and community safety programs. While a millionaire
surcharge could generate revenue, Albany’s approval cannot be relied upon, and
the existing debt limits borrowing flexibility.
Mr. Mamdani’s agenda will depend on political negotiations, construction efficiencies, and the city’s tolerance for debt. The scale of his program is clear, but whether it can be sustained within New York’s fiscal reality is uncertain.
“There must
be accountability and cost-benefit analysis, because it is taxpayers who are
paying for all that,” Mr. Silenas added.
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