CANADA VERSUS USA TRADE WAR
There's no doubt in most Canadian minds that the Doug Ford
Ontario ads using MAGA icon Reagan were poorly timed and poorly thought-out
along with context truncated.
.
There are long standing issues between neighbours that
predate Trump.
Aluminum
Lumber
Steel
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Here's the state of affairs:
The United States does not produce enough primary aluminum
to meet its own needs. The domestic primary aluminum industry is insufficient
to cover the country's demand, resulting in a significant reliance on imports,
primarily from Canada.
In 2024, the U.S. produced approximately 680,000 tonnes of
primary aluminum, operating at only 50% of its 1.36 million tonne capacity,
while importing over 4.8 million tonnes of crude and semi-manufactured aluminum
products.
Canada supplies about 60% of the primary aluminum used by
the U.S. and 58% of all aluminum imports, making it a crucial supplier.
The U.S. industry has declined from having over 30 smelters
in 1980 to only four operating smelters today, with three smelters closing or
curtailing operations since 2018.
This decline is largely due to the high cost of
electricity, which accounts for up to 40-50% of production costs, making U.S.
smelters less competitive compared to Canadian facilities that use low-cost
hydroelectric power.
While the U.S. has a strong secondary (recycled) aluminum
industry, which produced 3.3 million tonnes in 2023, this is not enough to
offset the shortfall in primary production.
The U.S. is therefore a net importer of aluminum, with its
domestic production capacity unable to meet the demands of sectors like
automotive, infrastructure, and clean energy.
........
The United States does not currently produce enough
softwood lumber to meet its own domestic demand. In 2024, the U.S. produced
approximately 72% of its lumber domestically, meaning it still relies on
imports for the remaining 28%.
Canada is the primary source, supplying 28.1 million cubic
meters of lumber in 2024, which accounts for 84.3% of all softwood lumber
imports into the U.S..
While U.S. production capacity has increased significantly
since 2016, with the addition of eight billion board feet of capacity and the
production of 30 billion additional board feet of softwood lumber, the U.S.
still falls short of fully meeting its needs without Canadian imports.
Industry analysis indicates that the U.S. lacks the
existing capacity to fill the gap left by Canadian supply in the short term, as
Canada currently supplies about 12.0 billion board feet of softwood lumber to
the U.S. market, and the U.S. is still short by over 3.2 billion board feet of
operable capacity to meet current demand levels.
Although the U.S. can supply up to 95% of its own lumber
needs according to the U.S. Lumber Coalition, this still leaves a significant
shortfall that requires Canadian imports.
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You got to hand it the the US Lumber Coalition... they want a closed market
so there's no price competition
.........
The United States does not produce enough steel to meet its
own domestic needs. The country imports a significant portion of its steel,
with about 20% of the steel used in the U.S. in 2023 being imported according
to Census Bureau data.
While the U.S. is the third-largest producer of steel
globally, behind China and Japan, its production capacity is
insufficient to cover total domestic consumption.
This reliance on imports makes U.S. industries vulnerable
to global supply chain disruptions, particularly during trade disputes and
tariff conflicts.
Although the U.S. produces 75% of its own steel needs, the
remaining 25% must be imported, and the domestic industry faces challenges such
as outdated infrastructure, high production costs, and competition from foreign
producers.
.
Wouldn't you rather have Canadian steel with better quality than from China?
There's gong to be a deal but personalities are
burning bridges.
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