Leaked Files Show Russia Agreed to Train Chinese Paratroops for Taiwan Invasion, Analysts Say
WASHINGTON — Russia and China have
secretly agreed for Moscow to provide equipment and special forces training
that would allow the PLA to air-drop armored vehicles and paratroopers,
significantly boosting Beijing’s capacity to invade Taiwan, according to an analysis
of leaked Russian documents by a leading British defense and security
institute.
The Royal
United Services Institute (RUSI) said much of a trove of Russian documents
released this summer by a shadowy hacktivist collective known as Black Moon
appears authentic. The papers describe concrete Russian offers to equip and
train Chinese airborne forces — including vehicles, parachute systems, command
modules, and instruction by Russian specialists.
RUSI’s
findings landed like a bombshell, suggesting that the military-industrial
communities of Russia and China are more closely integrated than previously
acknowledged. The implications stretch from Russia’s war in Ukraine to growing
fears that China intends to invade Taiwan by 2027.
The key
point, analysts say, is that while China has built significant amphibious
landing capacity, Taiwan’s geography offers relatively few beaches suitable for
large-scale landings. U.S. military experts argue this natural constraint
remains Taiwan’s greatest defensive advantage. Beijing, however, lacks
experience in paratroop and large-scale airdrop operations — precisely the area
where Russia has decades of history. The Black Moon files indicate Moscow has
agreed to fill this gap, giving Beijing a new invasion option. Still, RUSI
notes a caveat: while “significant portions” of the roughly 800 pages reviewed
align with known procurement patterns, some parts may have been altered or
taken out of context, and no government has confirmed the arrangements.
Taken at
face value, the documents and RUSI’s verification point to a package of
measures allowing the PLA to expand beyond traditional beach landings.
According to the leaks, Russia in 2023 offered to sell China a full airborne
battalion’s worth of equipment: dozens of light amphibious assault vehicles, a
small number of lightweight anti-tank guns, airborne armored personnel
carriers, command vehicles, specialized parachute kits, and integrated
communications systems. The contracts also detail training in both Russia and
China, and the embedding of Russian instructors to oversee collective exercises
and teach airborne tactics.
One of the
most alarming sections of RUSI’s report spells out in technical jargon what
Russia agreed to provide — and how it could endanger states beyond Taiwan.
“The
agreements provide for the transfer of special-purpose parachute systems
‘Dalnolyot,’ which are designed for inserting loads of up to 190 kg from an
altitude of up to 32,000 feet, achieving a range of between 30–80 km depending
on load. Russia is equipping and training Chinese special forces groups to
penetrate the territory of other countries without being noticed, offering
offensive options against Taiwan, the Philippines and other island states in
the region.”
The
documents reference minutes of a meeting held March 8, 2024, in Moscow, where
Russia agreed to supply China by the end of 2024 with data on how the Dalnolyot
system performed in extreme cold down to –60 degrees Celsius. Building on
RUSI’s reporting, Defense News quoted analysts saying Moscow’s aim is to
position itself as a military supplier to Beijing while raising funds for its
war in Ukraine.
The Black
Moon files include both completed and draft documents referencing delegations
traveling to Moscow, delivery and payment timelines for parachute systems and
amphibious vehicles, and minutes of technical meetings. They also contain
contracts and commitments purportedly drawn up by Russian and Chinese
corporations.
One leaked
photo appears to show purported senior Chinese defense-linked officials seated
across from Russian counterparts in what seems to be a Moscow conference room.
Visible name plates and presentation slides suggest a formal setting,
reinforcing the impression of structured, face-to-face collaboration in a
high-security environment.
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