Conrad Black - Germany, better to dream of Bismarck, shake off the Greens and SPD
From all indications, the proposed fiscal agreement in Germany between the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens is an inadequate approach to correct the chronic errors of the entire post-Schroeder era, (and only starts after Gerhard Schroeder because he did rather courageously roll back the sumptuous German welfare system). And it is a prospective agreement between the wrong contractants.
The Greens
should have no more influence in German public life and not one more pfennig
should be consecrated to the nonsense about climate change. The enthusiasm for
deregulation and the belated recognition that Germany’s formerly powerhouse
auto industry has been regulated into a distressed state are commendable. But a
formal or informal coalition of precisely the elements that dragged Germany
down to its present stagnant and parlous economic condition is not a believable
source for the radical changes that will be necessary to capitalise on the
great skill and proverbial diligence of the German workforce.
Everyone can
salute Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz’ ultimate victory over his old rival
Angela Merkel. Unlike other long serving federal chancellors, Konrad Adenauer
and Helmut Kohl, the Merkel era was one of endless temporizing – she never did
by haves what could be done by quarters. The greatest error was not the
admission of an unassimilable mass of destitute immigrants from places where
Germany had been no part of the problems of the countries in the origin. It was
a mistake, politically and otherwise; it was to put unfair competitive strain
on German citizens of modest income in the costs of necessities, but it surely
indicated the former chancellor’s compassionate spirit which, while bad policy,
reflects creditably upon her character.
The greatest
disaster was the combination of Chancellor Merkel’s self-abasement before the
green militants and her aggressive abdication of Germany’s right and duty to
begin, altogether within the framework of the Western Alliance and with respect
for the civilised and democratic principles of that Alliance, to exercise
responsibly the vocation of a united Germany to be the most influential power
in Europe. In doing this, she could have resumed the role that was last
exercised by Bismarck from his founding of the united German Empire in 1871
until his dismissal by the hyperactive and self-destructively misguided
child-man Emperor Wilhelm II in 1890.
After
provoking and winning the Danish, Austrian, and Franco-Prussian Wars, which
were brief and by previous and subsequent European standards or compared to the
US Civil War or even the Crimean War, relatively moderate in terms of combat
deaths, Bismarck became the guardian of European peace. He befriended Russia
which prevented it from allying itself with France, did absolutely nothing to
annoy the British, which sustained them in their self-described policy of
”splendid isolation” from the continent, and he went to some lengths to
avoid any further abrasions with France. (After unjustly stealing Alsace and
Lorraine, the French spirit of revanchism was not going to abate easily or
spontaneously.
It is a
truism to say the Germany was very late unifying, has never determined if it
was a Western or Eastern facing country, and prior to the Western Alliance was
unable to assure its own security without threatening its neighbours. These
problems appeared to be resolved when President Eisenhower, ignoring the
reservations of the French and even of Winston Churchill, brought West Germany
to the top table of NATO in 1955; and when the first President Bush ignored the
reservations of Gorbachev, Mitterrand, and Thatcher and assisted Helmut Kohl in
the reunification of Germany.
But by
almost throttling the German automobile industry and shutting down Germany’s
sophisticated nuclear power system, Merkel legitimised an exaggerated fear of
climate change and robbed Germany of its mystique and its means as an economic
giant. The incoming chancellor is an admirer of President Reagan, but he is
unlikely to be able to provide the necessary course correction in German
economic policy with the semi-comatose relic of the SPD chained to his ankle,
not to mention the Greens.
Almost two
generations have gone by since Reagan and now that the United States is being
challenged by China, its natural allies are not so much a Europe that is
addicted to America defending it against a threat that has receded, but China’s
most powerful neighbours: Japan, India, South Korea, Russia, and even, if
necessary, Taiwan, as well as Australia and Indonesia.
For the
purposes of emancipating Germany from the anesthetising influence of the Greens
and the socialistic nostrums of the SPD, Merz would do better to associate with
the Alternative for Germany Party. But it not only has some prominent
personalities who are too reckless for comfort in their asides about the most
odious chapters of modern German history, too many of them also hear the forest
murmurs about the merits of closer association with Russia. The United States
can outbid China for the affections of Russia and Germany should understand
that if it does not pull its weight in the Western Alliance, Germany could
become a less interesting ally for the United States than Russia.
Everyone
wishes the incoming chancellor well. To be as successful as his perseverance
warrants, he should try to bring the Alternative into government in exchange
for that party submitting credibly to the grace of conversion from any
affection for racism or authoritarianism. Without German leadership, Europe is
going to continue to drift.
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