As The Free World Indulges In Naive Complacency, China’s Massive Military Buildup Continues
China’s true military spending is likely much higher than publicly reported figures, forcing free nations to rethink their attitudes towards national defence.
Democracy is undoubtedly the best form of government humans have ever devised. Democracies are – on average – more prosperous, more free, and more safe than non-democratic nations. Countries that transition to democracy tend to do much better in the long run.
Democracies are more responsive, can test out ideas, and can more rapidly address mistakes and correct those mistakes.
Democracies also tend to make many small & easily-survivable errors, whereas autocracies, dictatorships, communist states, theocracies, and other non-democratic systems often make large-scale nation-ruining errors.
Above the moral and ethical reasons why democracies are successful – which are of course important – is a more practical one. Democracies utilize more brainpower when it comes to making decisions. Even the smartest dictator and their small circle of loyalists cannot hope to effectively manage a nation of tens of millions of people with limited input and little incentive to address errors, whereas in a democracy the perspectives, experiences, and opinions of every voting-eligible citizen can be taken into account.
Most importantly, while not everyone gets involved in the democratic process, those who hope to gain power must be constantly attuned to the public mood. This process alone generates a level of accountability and ongoing learning that ensures democracies succeed in the long run.
With that said, non-democratic states often have one ‘advantage’ over democratic ones: They can make more decisive moves to gain power in the short to medium term.
Because non-democratic states are less concerned with public opinion, individual freedom, and property rights, they can often rearrange society to achieve a large overarching goal. Now, this is not actually a good thing, and the checks and balances that make democracy indecisive are what protect us from the whims of ‘dictator-lite’ elected officials who go power-mad.
However, the ruthless decisiveness that authoritarian states can show when focused on the singular goal of their leader can put them in a powerful situation relative to free nations, if those free nations aren’t paying attention to what is happening.
This was seen most notably in the 1930s. While the German fascists were initially elected, they quickly moved to destroy Germany’s nascent democratic institutions. Once control of the government and media was established, Germany embarked on a massive – and partially concealed – military buildup. It took years for democratic nations like the U.K. and France to respond to this buildup, as internal debate and a public desire to ‘avoid war’ and spend on things other than the military often won out against voices warning of the need to rearm. Though rearmament did come, it came too late. Germany had acquired a military advantage over Europe and used that advantage to conquer much of the continent.
Japan did the same. Despite having an economy 17 times smaller than that of the United States in terms of national income at the start of the war, Japan managed to score early victories against the United States because Japan had single-mindedly focused on military power while America was struggling through the aftermath of the Great Depression. It took years for America to get its economy ready for war, and much suffering occurred in the interim years.
This is a challenge we face today, and it is probably something democracies will always face to some extent. Voters will understandably vote for policies that bring them the most benefit – as each person sees it. That tends to be lower taxes and stronger social programs. Finding the right balance without going too far into debt is generally the foundation of most political debates one way or another.
It is far tougher to make the case for military spending, which – depending on how world events shape out – either brings the maximum possible benefit by helping ensure the survival of the nation – or is largely ‘wasted’ if no conflict occurs (though high military spending can prevent conflict through deterrence, that is a tough political argument to make when people see billions spent on weapons that could have been spent on tax cuts or healthcare).
So, those who advocate for strong military spending in democratic nations often lose the argument. In Canada, that argument has been lost over and over and over again for decades.
The same has happened in much of the rest of the free world. Even in the United States, defence spending as a percentage of GDP is near a record-low (which is why people should avoid being distracted by ‘big numbers’, since overall spending always looks ‘bigger’ over time).
The situation in Canada and much of Europe is far worse.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have embarked on massive military buildups. And while Russia is already waging war against the free nation of Ukraine, China’s buildup continues to expand.
Thus, we are seeing the same war production gap opening up between free nations and non-democratic states that we saw in the lead-up to WW2.
U.S. Department of Defense Report on “Military and Security Developments Involving The People’s Republic of China”
With all the above in mind, the recently released Pentagon report on China’s military buildup is a sobering read.
The full report is 182 pages, so I encourage you to read it for yourself, but a few key things stand out:
“PLA Navy (PLAN). Numerically, the PRC has the largest navy in the world, with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants.
The PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-mission ships and submarines. In 2023, the PLAN continued to grow its ability to perform missions beyond the First Island Chain (FIC) by conducting the first extended area deployment of its new YUSHEN-class amphibious assault ship and three deployments with CV-17 Shandong to the Philippine Sea, a record number for any PLAN carrier in a calendar year.”
“PLA Air Force (PLAAF). The PLAAF is modernizing and indigenizing its aircraft and unmanned aerial systems rapidly, matching U.S. standards. In 2023, the PLA transferred significant portions of PLAN shore-based, fixed-wing combat aviation units, facilities, air defense, and radar units to the PLAAF. Given time, this shift will probably enable better command and control over the PRC’s integrated air defense systems as well as the network of ground-based air domain awareness radars supporting the PRC’s national integrated air defense system network.”
“PRC Defense Spending. A survey of multiple models of the PRC’s defense budget estimates that Beijing spends 40% to 90% more than it announces in its public defense budget, which equates to approximately $330 billion–$450 billion in total defense spending for 2024. The consensus among experts is that the PRC’s publicly announced defense spending figure does not contain the entirety of PRC investment in its defense, so alternative approaches are used to assess the total value of this spending.”
“Developments in Defense Industry. The PRC’s hypersonic missile technologies have greatly advanced during the past 20 years. Many PRC missile programs are comparable to other international top-tier producers. The PRC is the world’s top ship-producing nation by tonnage and is capable of producing a wide range of naval combatants, gas turbine and diesel engines, and shipboard weapons and electronic systems, making it nearly self-sufficient for all shipbuilding needs.”
The PRC, the top commercial ship-producing nation in the world by most industry measures, has sufficient capacity to produce any required numbers of naval classes: submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and amphibious ships. The PRC has developed unmanned underwater systems, publicly revealing a long-range system in 2019. The PRC has been constructing major new shipyards, such as Hudong Shipyard on Changxing Island, in recent years to replace smaller and older yards in support of its commercial and naval shipbuilding programs, which seek to increase shipbuilding output. The PRC domestically produces naval gas turbine and diesel engines (under license from foreign companies or via domestic development) as well as almost all shipboard weapons and electronic systems for its military shipbuilding sector, making the industry nearly self-sufficient for all shipbuilding needs.
“Armaments Industry. The PRC’s production capacity is improving all PLA ground system categories: main and light battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, assault vehicles, air defense artillery systems, and artillery systems. Notably, the PRC began testing unmanned Type 59 tanks in 2018 as part of its military modernization program. In November 2022, the PRC unveiled an unmanned model of its VT-5 light tank, which is an export variant of the Type-15 light tank. The Type-15 entered PLA service in 2018 and was meant to replace aging Type-62 light tanks that first entered service in 1962. The PRC can produce ground weapon systems at or near world-class standards, although customers cite persistent quality deficiencies with some exported equipment, which could inhibit the PRC’s ability to expand its export markets in certain regions.”
“The PRC aims to overtake the West in AI R&D by 2025 to become the world leader in AI by 2030. The PRC has designated AI as a priority, national-level S&T development area and assesses that advances in AI and autonomy are central to intelligentized warfare, the PRC’s concept of future warfare. Beijing views the integration of military and civilian institutions as central for developing AI-enabled military capabilities and has established military-civilian R&D centers and procured commercially-developed AI and robotic technologies to ensure PLA access to cutting-edge AI technologies. PRC researchers are world leaders in certain AI applications, such as facial recognition and natural language processing, and PRC companies are marketing domestically designed AI chips. While the PRC remains reliant on certain foreign capabilities to produce AI hardware, such as advanced semiconductor fabrication tools and software, PRC researchers continue to explore new materials and design concepts for next-generation semiconductors.”
“Nuclear Warhead Stockpile
In 2020, DoD estimated the PRC’s operational nuclear warhead stockpile was in the low-200s and was expected to at least double by 2030. However, Beijing has accelerated its nuclear expansion, and DoD estimates this stockpile has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads as of 2024, on track to exceed previous projections.
The PRC is establishing new nuclear materials production and reprocessing facilities very likely to support its nuclear force expansion. Although these efforts are consistent with the PRC’s goals to increase nuclear energy generation and close its nuclear fuel cycle, Beijing likely considers this dual-use infrastructure as crucial to supporting its military goals, judging from PRC nuclear industry reporting and think tank publications. The PRC has not produced large quantities of plutonium for its weapons program since the early 1990s and probably will need to begin producing new plutonium this decade to meet the needs of its expanding nuclear stockpile. Despite its public support for a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, the PRC has rejected calls for a moratorium on production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons. It is likely that Beijing intends to produce nuclear warhead materials for its military in the near term.”
“Hypersonics and Fractional Orbital Bombardment. The PRC probably is developing advanced nuclear delivery systems, such as a strategic HGV and a FOB system, in part due to long-term concerns about United States missile defense capabilities as well as to attain qualitative parity with future worldwide missile capabilities. A “long-range” DF-27 ballistic missile is deployed to the PLARF and likely has a HGV payload option as well as conventional land-attack, conventional antiship, and nuclear capabilities. Official PRC military writings indicate this range-class spans 5,000–8,000 km, designating the DF-27 as an IRBM or ICBM, and PRC media indicates that it can potentially range as far as Alaska and Hawaii. In 2023, a PRC-based commentator stated that the DF-27 can be used to strike high-value targets on Guam, indicating that the DF-27 would primarily be used for regional conventional strikes during a conflict. On July 27, 2021, the PRC tested an ICBM-range HGV that travelled 40,000 km. The test likely demonstrated the PRC’s technical ability to field a FOB system, which can facilitate difficult to track attacks on the U.S. homeland. The PRC does not appear to have tested a FOB system in 2022 or 2023.”
Again, this is just a small portion of the report, which I encourage you to read in full here.
Everything noted above must also be viewed in the context of China’s immense manufacturing capabilities:
We must recognize what this means. In a potential future global conflict, China alone could outproduce all free nations, and could thus supply countries like Russia, North Korea, and Iran with near-limitless amounts of weapons, enabling the Authoritarian Axis to win a brutal war of attrition.
China is clearly preparing for such a scenario.
The free world is not.
We are still largely locked into complacency, pretending all is normal, and assuming that debates about tax rates and internal political squabbles are the most important things.
We have fallen into the same trap as the democracies in the 1930s.
Of course, many recognize the threat facing free nations. There are many people here in Canada and across the free world who realize that we need a substantial military buildup to counter the Authoritarian Axis and ensure that free nations remain the most powerful countries in the world. If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you are someone who recognizes how important it is for us to build up our military strength. And so, I encourage you to share this article with as many people as you can and reach out to your elected representatives to encourage them to support a significant increase in military investment.
Spencer Fernando
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https://spencerfernando.com/2024/12/21/a-new-pentagon-report-on-chinas-massive-ongoing-military-buildup-is-a-sobering-read/
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