Trump’s Best (And Maybe Only) Chance At Success Lies In The Senate
Opinions are like Democrats: everyone has one. OK, not Democrats, but you know what I mean – those words are interchangeable, and full of the same thing. As are those people out there insisting they know who Donald Trump should go to bat for and who he should abandon as far as his Cabinet goes in his second term. In the simplest terms possible, just let Trump be Trump.
Victory, they say, has a million fathers, while failure is an orphan. This is truer nowhere more than in politics. In radio, I’ve met more people who’ve claimed to be responsible for either “discovering” or “mentoring” (by which they mean creating) everyone from Colin Cowherd to Glenn Beck, and everyone in between. I have no idea if they even know the people they claim to have been influential in the lives of, but I do know I don’t care. Glory, as with guilt, is not inheritable.
There’s a difference between being around something that happens and making something happen. Very few people actually make things happen, but many claim as much credit as possible when no one who knows the truth is around. It’s kind of gross, actually.
It’s worse in politics. Everyone is responsible for either the win or causing the loss, depending on who they’re talking to and about what.
Everyone in Washington has some connection to “Trump’s inner circle.” That claim and $5 will get you a cup of coffee. And everyone offered advice, or at least claims to have, at some point during the campaign. Hell, even I’ve done it – having sent notes and columns to my contacts in there. Did anything make it through? I have no idea, nor real concern, because we won. That’s all that matters, or at least all I care about.
Once that victory was secured, the advice as to how to populate a second administration began in earnest.
It’s tough to blame people, many of whom want as much of what Trump promised on the campaign trail to be implemented as quickly as possible (as do I). However, Donald Trump doesn’t need anyone’s advice, and it’s pretty clear he’s not really soliciting it – unless you’re Elon Musk, which you are probably not (but if you are, get in touch, I’d love an interview for the podcast).
Short of being Elon, screaming about this nomination or that one, either positive or negative, doesn’t really matter. Yes, some sycophants went a little overboard in supporting some nominees, one of which has withdrawn, but whatever. Better too much excitement than not enough.
That having been said, the agenda is what matters, so the focus should be on the Senate.
On the issues that need legislation, and there are a lot of them, and not executive orders (there are a lot of them, too, and those will need creative legal thinkers to overcome the lawsuits leftists have already drafted to prevent deportations and protect criminal illegal aliens), the biggest hurdle the Trump administration will face is the Senate. That may sound weird, considering Republicans control it, but quite a few Senate Republicans are about as interested in anything that doesn’t directly benefit their electoral chances as Tim Walz is in acting like a normal human being.
While pundits fill the airwaves with countless pieces of advice over what Trump should do next, anyone who wants that next thing actually done needs to call the Senate.
Republicans will get one, maybe two bites at the apple to get things done legislatively, but only through reconciliation. There’s no point in explaining what this is here, just know that it must be related to the budget and, thanks to “the Byrd Rule,” it cannot dramatically change non-fiscal policy. It can change policy through funding it, or cutting its funding, but it can’t create new policy. They can try, but the Senate Parliamentarian gets to rule on whether or not a provision in a reconciliation bill crosses that line, and that ruling is binding on the Senate.
That’s the Byrd Rule, which was created to prevent the bypassing of a filibuster. There’s more, of course, Google it if you want to know.
That means the fiscal priorities on the spending front can get through with only 50 votes plus VP JD Vance. Sounds simple, and it is…as a concept. As far as execution goes, it will be difficult.
It’s time to find out just how connected those people claiming to have helped made a difference in the election really are. There can be one reconciliation bill per year (maybe two, thanks to what Chuck Schumer did as Senate Majority Leader), which is not a lot.
Outside of the courts, reconciliation is where the fights that matter will be. While the Cabinet officials will be critical in cutting the size of departments and enforcing laws already on the books, the best shot Donald Trump will have at having the biggest impact will depend on the Senate. We need to find out how many of those million fathers truly love their kids and how many were only in it for the baby-making process.
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