Trumpmentum: Trump is Peaking with the Fall Foliage
Election Day is almost here, and Donald Trump is rewriting the book on campaigning.
He is peaking at just the right time, along with the beautiful autumn leaves.
Fortunately, he remains the Republican candidate despite deep-state efforts to remove him from the ballot through lawfare and at least two failed assassination attempts.
A few weeks ago, Trump served French fries at a Pennsylvania McDonald's, a crucial battleground state.
It was a popular move, showing that he relates to the working class far better than his opponent, the elite Kamala Harris, who made specious claims about having worked at McDonald's during college. Despite her claims, McDonald’s has no record of her previous employment, and her past job applications to other positions early in her career do not list it. Not surprisingly, the media “fact-checkers” are ignoring Harris’s bogus assertion.
Trump also was a rock star at the Catholic Charities' annual Al Smith dinner. Harris declined to attend, despite decades of tradition for presidential candidates to participate in the lighthearted roast. As Trump pointed out, Walter Mondale was the last candidate who chose not to attend this dinner in 1984 and look what happened to him: a 49-state Electoral College schlonging.
Instead, Harris told a pair of attendees at one of her rallies who shouted, “Jesus is Lord,” that, “You guys are at the wrong rally.” In one weekend, she told Catholics and Evangelical Christians to get lost.
These events are the snapshots and soundbites that decide elections. But let’s look at numbers instead. Ultimately, elections are about votes. Leaving aside questions or doubts about who is voting and how those votes are counted, the winner, at least in theory, should be the candidate receiving the most legal votes.
In their most recent survey of likely U.S. voters, Rasmussen Reports found that “Former President Donald Trump has regained a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest daily tracking poll of the 2024 presidential election.”
AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster for the 2020 presidential election, shows Trump with a 3-point lead over Harris nationally. Commendably, they sampled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, eliminating the common Democrat oversampling bias found in many polls.
Many of these other pollsters are bundled into the RealClearPolitics average, which currently shows Harris with an 0.6 point lead over Trump.
Given how Trump typically outperforms national polls, Harris’s less than one-point lead bodes well for Trump.
How much does Trump beat the polls by?
Let’s look at the past two presidential elections, specifically the RealClearPolitics average. In 2020, 14 days before the election, Biden was up by 7.5 points. In 2016, Clinton was up by 5.6 points.
Biden barely won in 2020 by a margin of about 44,000 votes across a handful of battleground states. Clinton lost, suggesting Trump outperformed the national polling average by at least 6 points. What does that mean for Harris’s current less than half-point lead in national polls?
National polls don’t decide the election. Instead, the Electoral College does through 50 separate state elections. Most states are clearly red or blue and not in play. Although some speculate that Trump is “making a play for New York” by planning a huge Madison Square Garden rally.
Yet, certain battleground states are poised to shape the Electoral College outcome and decide the next president. What are the poll results in those specific states?
RealClearPolitics tracks the polling averages for battleground states. Trump leads in each state.
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.8
Arizona: Trump +1.8
Nevada: Trump +0.9
Wisconsin: Trump +0.1
Michigan: Trump +0.6
North Carolina: Trump +0.4
Georgia: Trump +2.5
What if we compared today’s results to those of four years ago in the same battleground states, during the Trump versus Biden election.
Fourteen days before the 2020 election, Biden was +4.2 in the RealClearPolitics battleground average. And Biden won by fewer than 50,000 votes in those battleground states. Presently, Trump is +1.1 across those same battleground states. Once again, this bodes well for Trump’s prospects on Nov. 5.
Betting odds provide an alternative perspective on the race. They indicate what people anticipate occurring based on their financial stakes, instead of merely showing their preferences as seen in opinion polls.
RealClearPolitics presents an average of the betting odds across multiple betting agencies, giving Trump a 61% chance of winning compared to only 38% for Harris.
Again, that is nationally. What are the betting odds in the swing states? Polymarket looks at that specifically, substituting political party for the actual candidate, unless they are expecting a sudden change of batter. To my “fact-checker” fans out there, the numbers I am citing are as of this writing and likely to change by the time this is published.
Pennsylvania – Trump 61%, Harris 41%
Michigan – Trump 54%, Harris 47%
North Carolina – Trump 70%, Harris 30%
Georgia – Trump 71%, Harris 30%
Wisconsin – Trump 57%, Harris 43%
Nevada – Trump 64%, Harris 36%
Arizona – Trump 74%, Harris 26%
Odds of Trump winning a solid blue state - 22%
Trump winning every swing state – 32%
Harris winning every swing state – 9%
Who are the punters putting their money on? Again, polls show “preferences,” while betting shows “expectations.” Follow the money.
Why does Donald Trump have lower poll numbers compared to actual voting results? One explanation could be "the submerged Trump vote," as noted by the American Spectator. Many Trump supporters hesitate to talk to pollsters because of widely reported misconduct by the FBI and other elements of the administrative/surveillance/deep state.
The article further explains:
But with the advent of the Biden-Harris regime, all of that changed. And with the targeting of the MAGA movement, Trump voters began to consider the legal risks of voicing their support of Trump.
In other words, why risk drawing the unwanted scrutiny of the FBI, the equally politicized Justice Department, and the rest of the federal surveillance and regulatory behemoth for the sake of taking a poll?
This might clarify the differences observed between polling and the actual election outcomes in 2016 and 2020. Will 2024 mirror this trend? Will the election be “too big to rig” this time around?
Currently, Trump enjoys significant momentum - what one might call Trumpmentum. His popularity is peaking, paralleling the stunning autumn foliage across the nation.
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