Trump Could Be 'President on Election Day' If Early Voting Numbers Hold Up
Early voting is underway in plenty of places now, with two weeks to go until the official Election Day. Democrats have historically had a distinct advantage in early voting, as Republicans have tended to vote in person and on Election Day. But, as journalist and political analyst Mark Halperin said on Tuesday, if current early-voting trends hold, Donald Trump will win the presidential race on Election Day.
While Democrats maintain a significant lead in early voter turnout, Republicans have cut the gap compared to 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Halperin, on his 2WAY platform, said all the analysts he has spoken to since Monday believe Trump will win if this trend continues, as Democrats will be unable to combat Republicans’ early vote gains on Election Day.
Watch Halperin speaking to this subject:
Halperin says in part:
If these numbers hold up, in the states where we can understand even partially what the data's like, we'll know that Donald Trump is going to be president on Election day.
Mark Halperin does, of course, go on to hedge his bets on the topic:
"As we said yesterday, don’t overread the early vote, okay? It can change. We don’t know exactly who’s casting these ballots, how they’re voting, etc.,” Halperin added. “But every analyst I’ve talked to in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, say if this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly do well enough on Election Day."
A cautionary note is in order: Predictions are notoriously hard to make, especially about the future - and that's what Mark Halperin is doing here. But if the numbers he cites are correct, and if the trend holds, it says a couple of interesting things about the state of the race.
First: This is a seismic shift in voting patterns. Democrats have always been very, very good at their ground game, getting their voters to the polls, regardless of whether or not those voters have a heartbeat. They have also, historically, been very good at banking those votes in states that have early voting. But that's changing now - the increase in Republican early-vote turnout is erasing the Democrats' previous advantage. Republicans are, finally, learning to bank their votes. (Full disclosure: Alaska has early voting, but it would involve a 30-minute drive, so we'll be voting on Election Day at our local community center.)
Second: While there's no survey data to cite, one has to wonder if this is a sign of voter enthusiasm on the part of Republicans. The prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency has many Republicans willing to crawl on their hands and knees through a half-mile of scrap iron and busted glass to vote. (Full disclosure: I'm one of those voters.)
Enthusiasm can be a great advantage in an election. And it's hard to see too many people who are enthused - truly enthused - about a Kamala Harris presidency.
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Of course, all this may be misleading. This is an odd election; we are quite literally in an undiscovered country in this cycle, with a former president who has been out of office for four years, trying to Grover-Cleveland himself into a non-consecutive second term and who is running against an inarguably incompetent opponent who is the sitting vice president but who was not nominated for the candidacy by any normal process and who did not receive a single primary vote.
Oh, and she's also the most far-left political figure to ever seek the White House.
Finally, a significant number of voters on both sides see this as an election where our national survival is at stake. So all of our assumptions, all of our predictions, may on Election Day be knocked into a cocked hat.
Hang in there. Two weeks to go. Stay tuned, as all of us here at RedState will be covering this - right down to the wire.
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