One Last Time: Wargaming the Senate
With a little over a week to go, there is one major federal issue I have not recently wargamed: The United States Senate. The Senate is vital to the implementation of any presidential agenda; not only does this upper house have an up-or-down on all legislation, but they are also responsible for the "advise and consent" function for executive branch officials and, perhaps most important of all, federal judges - including Supreme Court justices.
If Donald Trump and JD Vance win this election, which is looking increasingly likely, they'll need a friendly Congress. So, let's take a look at some key Senate races and how the balance of the Senate is liable to turn out. My friend and colleague Jennifer Oliver O'Connell took a look at the Senate races a couple of weeks ago as well:
Let's look at how things stand now, nine days before the election. The RealClearPolitics average compilation of the Senate has the GOP already holding a two-seat lead, 51-49, assuming current polling holds. The toss-up states are Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Michigan. At the moment, in the RCP averages, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is leading Republican Mike Rogers by a narrow but comfortable margin of three points - but much of that comes from a Quinnipiac poll done on 10/17 - 10/21 that has Slotkin up by eight points, which feels a lot like an outlier. Even so, for the moment, we'll award this state to the Democrats.
- Nevada. The RCP averages have Democrat Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown by an even more comfortable 4.9 points. The polling has been pretty consistent since early October, so in an abundance of caution, we have to also award this seat to the Democrats.
- Ohio. This one's a nail-biter. The RCP average has Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Bernie Moreno by a squeaker - one point. But there may be a twist there, and I am going to break a rule and go with a gut feeling on this one, and here's why: while Brown has the advantage of incumbency, which is something of a problem to surmount, Ohio is becoming an increasingly-red state, and in the presidential race, Donald Trump is holding a very comfortable seven-point lead. My gut tells me Bernie Moreno may pull this one out, so I'm tentatively and hopefully giving this seat to the GOP; Moreno may be able to ride Trump's coattails to a victory.
- Pennsylvania. Another nail-biter. Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is leading Republican Dave McCormick by a skosh over a point and a half. Donald Trump is polling even closer, leading by 0.6 points. That's a squeaker by any measure, and while Pennsylvania is something of a wild card in this election, I'm going to have to give the incumbent the win here.
- Wisconsin. The Badger State may well be the most tossup-ey of the toss-ups. The race is just damn near a tie between the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and her GOP challenger Eric Hovde. The most recent polls show little movement since early October; a Trafalgar poll taken 10/18-10/20 has Hovde up by a point, a Quinnipiac poll on 10/17-10/21 has Baldwin likewise up a point, while an Emerson poll taken 10/21-10/22 shows a tie. The presidential race is still essentially tied, with Trump leading by a razor-thin margin of 0.2 points. In an abundance of caution, I'll give this one to the incumbent.
Here's what that ends up looking like.
This gives the GOP a non-filibuster-proof majority of 52-48. Workable, but more would be better.
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Much will depend on turnout, which so far is looking pretty good, and on Donald Trump's coattails. If his coattails are as long and broad as we hope, that could easily drag Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin over, which would give the Republicans a 55-seat Senate majority - much more comfortable.
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