GOP Only Needs to Flip Two Senate Seats to Win the Majority, but Polling Shows They Could Take Five
In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a golden opportunity to flip at least two seats to gain the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
The battle for the Senate majority has hit its final month as Republicans race to end their four-year stint in the minority.
The GOP needs to win only one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio — to do just that. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of retaking the upper chamber.
The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond those two contests and stretch their success across the battleground map.
Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican wins. However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are the surprise outliers. Should the winds of fortune turn in Republicans' favor, it could turn a two-seat majority into a five-seat lock.
Montana
In 2016 and 2020, former President and GOP nominee Donald Trump won Montana by double digits, and he's expected to do so again in 2024. Democrat Sen. John Tester is running for his fourth term but is being challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy Seal. Sheehy is young, charismatic and vibrant. Tester is a barnacle incumbent: he's grown large (literally and figuratively) through swamp excess. Along with Trump's endorsement of his candidacy, what Sheehy has done is successfully tie Tester to the failed Biden-Harris administration and its policies and Sheehy currently holds an eight-point lead over Tester. The Democrat Senate committee and outside PACs are pouring mega money into this race to no avail. Sheehy has maintained his lead over the sitting senator, and may well increase it before the election is done. Barring a miracle, Sheehy looks strong to flip this seat.
West Virginia
Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to run for reelection, leaving the seat wide open in this deep red state. WV Gov. Jim Justice is running to fill it, and with the state expected to go hard for Trump, the flip of this seat is considered by all the prognosticators as a done deal. No doubt Baby Dog will enjoy the Capitol life.
Ohio
Democrat incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown still leads his Republican challenger, businessman Bernie Moreno, in the polls, but financial assistance from outside PACs, as well as Moreno's successful exposing of Brown's comfortable relationship with China, is creating enough erosion that could change this race to lean Republican. The fact that VP candidate and OH Sen. JD Vance has supported him, and their messages about fighting for the working man align, has also been in Moreno's favor. Ohio bounces between light purple and red, but the state will likely be won by Donald Trump in November, to Moreno's advantage.
Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is ignoring Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in his struggle to hold on to his seat, has loosened his purse strings to support Moreno in Ohio.
But Republican forces have answered in the past month, with Moreno going up with ads and groups run by top lieutenants of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set to spend $80 million there between Labor Day and Election Day.
A recent survey and Washington Post poll is showing that this race has become tighter than Democrats wish.
But recent surveys indicate this race is a pure toss-up. According to a recent internal poll at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the race is deadlocked at 46 percent — marking a 2-point turn toward Moreno in roughly three weeks.
Wisconsin
Who would have thought that Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin would also be fighting for her life to maintain her seat? Yet, here we are, with Republican candidate and real-estate magnate Eric Hovde giving Baldwin a run for her money.
Eric Hovde is making a late charge to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and nab a seat in “blue wall” territory.
Alarm bells have been going off in Democratic circles in recent weeks as the sizable lead Baldwin had throughout the campaign has turned into a narrow advantage over Hovde, a wealthy businessman who can help bankroll his campaign in the final weeks.
The Cook Political Report last week shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”
Polls in early September showed even more damning news for Baldwin.
Several newly released polls have illustrated a tightening Senate race in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., is fighting for her seat in a state that could very likely swing for former President Trump in the presidential race.
Likely voters in Wisconsin split 51% for Baldwin and 48% for Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde in a new Marist poll on Thursday. A new Quinnipiac poll similarly showed the Democrat leading Hovde by only a few points, 51% to 47%, and an AARP poll showed Baldwin at 50% and the Republican candidate at 47%, with 3% undecided.
In the AARP's survey of voters over 50, Hovde managed to take the lead from Baldwin, beating her 50% to 49%.
Baldwin is playing the usual woman card, running on "reproductive rights" and gerrymandering, while Hovde is focusing on what matters to Wisconsinites: the economy, inflation, and a porous border. Wisconsin has recently become a toss-up state, making this a nail-biter to the end.
Michigan
Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin probably thought she would have a smooth shift into Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow's seat, even against her opponent, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin has been a popular representative for the state, but has been hobbled by some smart local investigative reporting and her more unpopular policies that have fallen out of favor with Michiganians, including her support for her colleague, Squad member and antisemite MI Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic contender for an open US Senate seat in Michigan, takes a farming tax credit at her home, but the property has no farming licenses or agricultural activity, The Post can exclusively report.
The home in Holly is located in rural Oakland County and was gifted to Slotkin and her brother by their father Curtis in May 2023. It was transferred free of charge via a quitclaim deed, property records show.
The home is classified as “agricultural-improved,” a designation given to any “improvements, buildings, structures, or fixtures suitable for use in farming which are located on agricultural land.”
As a result of this designation, the home receives a 100% property tax exemption.
When people are struggling to buy groceries and pay rent, this is an awful look that an elected representative capitalizes on a property tax exemption by fraudulently claiming a status they do not have. This story has gained legs, along with her past support of EV mandates.
In a Democrat campaign Zoom call, Slotkin also expressed concerns about being dragged down by the top of the ticket. An exclusive Axios report said Slotkin revealed that the internal polling for Vice President and selected Democrat nominee Kamala Harris is "underwater" in the state, and that the down-ballot races like hers will suffer as a result. With his former flawed record on the House Intel Committee, Rogers is no beacon of light himself. But with the state of Michigan now in serious play, should Trump manage to win the state, that largesse would no doubt pour out on him and result in a Republican Senate win down the ballot.
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