Trump Maintains Lead in Battleground States, As We Draw Nearer to First Debate

Becca Lower reporting for RedState 

It seems hard to believe, but we're just around the corner from the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle, a week from today (June 27th). As my colleague Bob Hoge wrote earlier on Thursday, both the Biden and the Trump campaigns are preparing their candidates for showtime on the big stage in Atlanta. In recent days, CNN, which is hosting the debate, released the official rules both sides agreed to abide by. Whether President Joe Biden will manage to do that is still an open question, of course.

In a new snapshot of the state of the race, polling from Emerson College and The Hill suggests that former president, Donald Trump is keeping -- or widening -- his lead against Biden in six, key swing states:

Former President Donald Trump is running the table against President Biden in six battleground states, fresh polling shows.

The surveys from Emerson College and The Hill show the 45th president edging out Biden in Arizona (47%-43%), Georgia (45%-41%), Michigan (46%-45%), Nevada (46%-43%), Pennsylvania (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (47%-44%).

The report continues: "In all six states, Trump’s lead has either remained the same or grown from the outlet’s polls taken" in May, which was before the verdict dropped in the Manhattan business records fraud case.

But that isn't the only bad news for Biden here. The presumed Democrat nominee's support appears to be showing more cracks in blue states like Minnesota of all places, if the poll bears out on Election Day:

The poll also showed Trump and Biden dead even at 45% each in Minnesota, which has backed a Republican for president just three times since the onset of the Great Depression.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said that both Biden and Trump lost support among independent voters since the last poll: 

“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”

Kimball cautions that like most polls this far out from November, the results should be taken with a grain of salt, saying that "[n]otably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”

You can read the full Emerson College/The Hill poll results here.