Russian Intelligence Coup Has Upset Germany's Politics and Its Relations With NATO Partners
The Russian propaganda outlet RT.com released a transcript Friday of senior German military officers discussing the deployment of the German Taurus stealth cruise missile to Ukraine.
Luftwaffe commander Ingo Gerhartz led the 38-minute call that took place on February 19 involved. Other participants were the German Air Force Head of the Operations and Training Section, Frank Graefe, a Luftwaffe Space Command Air Operations Center staff member, Stefan Fenske, and another staff from the center identified only by the surname Frostedte. The call was intercepted because General Gaefe, who was attending the biennial Singapore Airshow (sounds a lot like "hiking the Appalachian Trail"), participated in the discussion using an unsecured hotel telephone line.
WebEx, a communications program from U.S.-brd Cisco Systems, provides end-to-end encryption which allows for secure communications. However, if a participant dials in via a landline rather than using the app — as apparently happened in the case of the officer in Singapore — then the encryption is not guaranteed.
It is unclear if Graefe was specifically targeted or if Russian signals intelligence simply vacuumed up his conversation. The lag between the conversation and it being made public — releasing a story of this magnitude on a Friday reeks of "get it out there, now!" — leads me to believe this was a serendipitous intelligence coup.
The leaked audio featured Lieutenant-General Ingo Gerhartz, chief of the German Air Force, discussing the deployment scenarios of Taurus missiles with his colleagues. These long-range, air-launched cruise missiles, known for their stealth capabilities, could potentially strike targets deep within Russian-held territory. The conversation centered on the technical aspects of supplying these missiles to Ukraine and the logistical support Germany would need to provide. While no concrete decisions were made in the recording, it fueled speculation about a potential shift in Germany's cautious stance on military aid to Ukraine.
The initial Russian gambit was to portray the discussion as planning for a covert German attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge.
“We demand an explanation from Germany. Official Berlin must provide it immediately. Attempts to dodge the question will be considered an admission of guilt,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that NATO had “egg on its face” due to the recording. He also noted that the German officers knew perfectly well that they were discussing direct involvement, as evidenced by attempts to disguise or hide it, and highlighted the part about Americans operating in Ukraine.
Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin said the legislature will address the recording when it reconvenes on March 11. The matter “deserves the most serious discussion” and Moscow certainly needs to “send a demand to the Bundestag to conduct an investigation,” he added.
Germans have “once again turned into our archenemies,” said former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. “Just take a look at how thoroughly and in what detail the Krauts are discussing long-range missile strikes on Russia’s territory, and are picking out targets and the most workable ways to harm our Motherland and our people.” He ended his post with the WWII-era slogan, “Death to the Fascists!”
Although it wasn't a plausible reading of the conversation, it did serve as a quick social media IQ test.
The real discussion was contingency planning for how the Bundeswehr could execute an order to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles without crossing any of Germany's internal "red lines."
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government had previously been criticized for its hesitancy in supplying Ukraine with offensive weaponry. Germany's concerns about escalating the conflict with Russia, a major European energy supplier, have influenced German foreign policy decisions.
Scholz has argued that the air-launched missiles, which have a range of around 500 km — about the distance from Ukraine’s border to Moscow — could escalate the conflict and risk Germany becoming directly involved in the war. The chancellor’s position is a cause of division in his three-party coalition government, with his coalition partners repeatedly arguing in favor of providing the Taurus missiles.
Not to mention Germany's three-decade romance with the idea of turning Russia from a rabid ferret into a tame cash cow. And did I mention that Scholz was a crypto-communist activist when younger and talent-scouted by East German intelligence?
In the conversation, the Germans discussed that British and French personnel are assisting in programming targets into the missiles.
A key piece of that Franco-British support, he said, is the preparation of targeting data to include final target selection by French or British technicians, the conversion of that data to a form suitable for transfer to the missile, and uploading the data into the missile.
The preparation of the data takes place outside Ukraine and the aircraft-ready data is delivered to Poland, after which a British or French courier team, as needed, uses a vehicle to drive from Poland to Ukraine so that the data can be placed onto the missile.
All conversation participants describe the process as ongoing and seem very familiar with it. There is no question as to whether it is taking place. The clandestine presence of French and British technicians preparing cruise missiles to be delivered by Ukrainian bombers against Russian targets and have done so in past Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets, is treated by the Luftwaffe officers as a basic fact.
Divulging sensitive operational details in a call recorded by the SVR has caused a lot of problems for Scholz and Germany.
Germany's lack of seriousness in manning its armed forces and now in the way that it handles highly classified details is showing more and more EU nations that it can't look to Germany for competent leadership. The call, which apparently revealed Scholz's thinking on the subject of the Taurus missile that he hadn't shared with allies, foreign or domestic, has given his already flaccid credibility a body blow. This has caused France's Emanuel Macron to make a stab at wresting the leadership of the EU and European NATO from Germany. The tenor of the leaked conversation was one of lukewarm enthusiasm for assisting Ukraine with a strong shot of defeatism.
The long-term impact of the leaked conversation remains unclear. While it's unlikely to lead to an immediate shift in German policy, it has undoubtedly raised the stakes in the ongoing debate about military aid to Ukraine. The damage to diplomatic trust is very real, and the increased pressure from allies creates a complex situation for Scholz. Scholz's approval rate is roughly half that of Joe Biden (17%), and his coalition allies see self-preservation in jumping ship. However, Germany's constitution virtually guarantees that Scholz's government will continue to move zombie-like for the next two years when Germany's power and influence are sorely needed.
What is crystal clear is that this intelligence coup by the SVR has had a significant impact in dividing the pro-Ukraine coalition.
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