Trump’s Conundrum
In less than five months, the Republicans will hold their convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. On August 19, the Democrats will convene in Chicago. In mid-September, early voting will begin in five states. The amount of campaign spending that will take place over the next eight months will be staggering, and thanks to the duplicitous machinations and malevolent lawfare directed at Donald Trump by the Democrat establishment, the Republican Party and the Trump campaign are looking at a potentially overwhelming financial disadvantage.
It is estimated that spending on the 2024 presidential election will significantly exceed the $5.7 billion spent on campaigning and political advertising in 2020 and nearly triple what was spent in 2016. As of December 31, 2023, $230 million had already been spent, which is more than twice the record set in the same period during the 2016 election cycle.
In the 2020 presidential election, the Biden campaign and Democrat-aligned groups spent $3.3 billion while the Trump campaign and Republican-aligned groups spent $2.4 billion.
Among the individual campaigns, Biden raised over $1 billion, while Trump raised $770 million. In the case of Joe Biden, it was the large individual donors, that accounted for 61% of contributions, while small individual donors accounted for 38%.
The Trump campaign fundraising was almost equally underwritten by large individual donors (51%) and small individual donors (49%) contributing $200.00 or less (a stunning and historically unmatched achievement.)
In 2024, the large individual donors, and their super and hybrid PACs, will probably account for at least 45% of all political contributions (43% in 2020). They will play an oversized role in deciding not only which candidate wins in November, but whether or not Joe Biden is the Democrat Party nominee. The small individual donors will account for perhaps 23% of all political donations, as they did in 2020.
Where do the two parties and their presumptive nominees stand in their campaign fundraising as of the end of January 2024?
The Biden campaign has raised $142 million to date and has $56 million on hand. The Trump campaign has raised $89 million and has $30 million on hand. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has raised $137 million with $24 million on hand; whereas the Republican National Committee (RNC) has raised $99 million and has just $9 million on hand.
When the cash on hand of the Biden campaign is combined with the DNC and other direct campaign-affiliated groups, the campaign has in excess of $154 million available. When Trump’s cash on hand is added to the RNC and other direct campaign-affiliated groups, the Trump campaign has $65 million.
While significant, these fundraising numbers pale by comparison to what will be spent in the entirety of the election cycle, assuming Trump and the Republicans can at least match their 2020 fundraising. Historically eighty plus percent of all political contributions occur between January and November of the election year.
2024 is shaping up to be the most extraordinary election in American history in light of the lawfare being waged against Trump. While the primary objective of the lawfare is to convict Trump of a felony, the intentional byproducts are to hamper Trump’s ability to campaign and to cripple the Republican Party’s and the Trump campaign’s fundraising.
In 2023, Trump spent more than $60 million of donor funds on legal expenses, with another $4.8 million in January of 2024. In another staggering statistic, he has spent over $132 million of donor funds on legal expenses since 2020. For 2024, considering the four trials he is still facing, Trump’s legal bills could exceed another $100+ million or a total of $232 million since 2020, all of which are separate from any judgements he may have to pay.
Recently, Lara Trump, Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law and choice to become co-chair of the RNC, indicated that the party should pay Trump’s legal bills. On the other hand, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign insists that “absolutely none” of the RNC funds will be used to pay legal expenses but left open the question of whether the funds raised by the campaign and its affiliated PACs will be used to pay Trump’s legal bills.
This scenario has eventuated in an increasingly contentious issue that is currently roiling the Republican Party and its major donors. Should the Party and its donors pay for Donald Trump’s legal bills and what happens if Trump is convicted of a felony in one of these malicious trials? These issues are currently playing havoc with the flow of contributions to the Trump campaign, the RNC, the Congressional Campaign Committees, and Republican-affiliated super/hybrid PACs.
In light of the compressed election schedule, this conundrum needs to be resolved quickly and openly. Between February and November, the Trump campaign needs to raise upwards of $600 million and the RNC $250 million to match their 2020 receipts and expenditures.
To date the primary and largest Democrat-affiliated super/hybrid PAC, ActBlue, has collected twice the contributions of its Republican counterpart, WinRed -- $925 million vs. $431 million. However, between 80-90% of contributions to these PACs occurs during the election year. WinRed will have to raise $1.8 billion between February and November to match their 2020 receipts and expenditures.
There is an increasing consensus among conservatives and Republicans that if the Democrats win the White House and one or both Houses of Congress, this nation may well never recover.
Therefore, it is imperative that: 1) Trump quickly resolve the issue of who pays his legal bills and judgements; 2) the Trump/Republican army of small donors reprises the vital role they played in the 2016 and 2020 election; and 3) the bulk of large Republican donors acknowledge the dire situation facing the nation, cease their fixation with stopping Trump from winning the nomination as, after South Carolina, only Trump can determine whether or not he is the nominee, and begin to at least match their 2020 contributions to the individual campaigns, the Party, and Republican-affiliated PACs.
The Republican Party and the Trump campaign cannot afford to fall further behind the monolithic Biden/Democrat machine.
Recently a Biden-supporting super PAC, Future Forward, announced a record-setting $250 million ad blitz in eight battleground states. Another Democrat-supporting super PAC, Unite the Country, is planning to spend $40 million in the early spring focusing on Trump’s legal problems. Other Democrat-supporting super and hybrid PACs are also committed to heavily investing in advertising on all mediums and are actively promoting mail-in and early voting turnout as well as financing unfettered ballot harvesting.
Despite the vile distractions the Democrats are throwing at him, Trump, as the de facto leader of the Republican Party, must focus on uniting a still fractured Republican electorate, revitalizing political contributions, and winning in November.
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