Bad News for Democrats: GOP's Chances of Flipping the Senate Are Looking Even Better
Democrats are in trouble with Joe Biden at the head of the ticket. Not only does Biden look like he's in big trouble against former President Donald Trump, with Trump leading in most polls, but it also looks like the Republican chances of taking the Senate are rising as well.
Republicans are going in with what looks like a very favorable map.
It's at 51-49 right now with a bare majority for the Democrats.
Democrats are in trouble because they have to defend 20 seats including in red states like Montana, West Virginia and Ohio where Trump is also likely to win and help out down ballot. There are also three independents who caucus with Democrats up for re-election. Meanwhile, the Republicans only have to defend two seats that are even considered competitive - Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) - and they're both rated "likely Republican." So the map is looking great for Republicans.
With Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) not running for reelection with the popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice running for his seat, Republicans are practically a lock on 50 seats. So all they have to do is flip another one. The chances are looking good.
As we previously reported, popular Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan is leading or tied with possible Democrats in a recent poll in Maryland. So he's likely to be very competitive there.
Then, in Montana, the Republicans have all coalesced around Tim Sheehy in the effort to knock out Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).
If they can take out Tester or Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio, they’ll be at 51. Both seats are considered “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, along with Arizona, where a three-way contest may take place among Republican Kari Lake, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) — if the incumbent chooses to run for reelection.
The caution always is with both Tester and Brown is that they are strong and have a history of fending off competition.
In Arizona, it's close with Lake running neck and neck with Gallego, whether with Sinema in the race or head-to-head. A recent Lake internal poll had her up.
Gallego is even claiming that she's leading in polling with this post, which may have the opposite intent than what he hopes.
So Arizona could break for Republicans too, particularly given the border issues.
“You already have a pretty clear path to 50. What you’re focused on now is adding additional seats for when it comes time to move legislation through the Senate,” said one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races.
“Senate Republicans have to still run through the tape and add at least one more seat to guarantee themselves a majority regardless of the presidential outcome, and some of the recent developments bolster their hopes at doing just that,” the operative added.
But it's looking good.
“It will be difficult for the Democrats to hold on,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.
The map is all lined up, now all the Republican voters have to make it happen and that will give us the wings to help start cleaning up some of the damage that Biden and the Democrats have done over the past few years.
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