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Election Indicators That Aren't

December 04, 2023 ,

If you were to look at the political fundamentals heading into the 2024 election season, you might believe that Republicans are in a very strong position. Donald Trump has taken a lead in the polling average against Joe Biden, and the president's approval ratings are either at or near record lows, depending on what survey you look at. 

That's not surprising given how bad the situation in the world currently is. From foreign policy to financial issues, Americans are feeling the pressure. All the "good" economic indicators in the world don't matter if prices remain stubbornly high, sky-rocketing interest rates prevent home ownership, and savings accounts continue to dwindle. The sense of chaos as wars continue to break out across the globe also isn't helping perceptions. 

With all that in mind, Biden having an approval rating of around 40 percent seems about right. 


How indicative is that number, though? Note that the last time Biden's approval rating was this low was August 10th, 2022. That happened to be right before a major election in which Republicans were projected to clean up. The talk of a red wave was everywhere. Would the GOP win 52 Senate seats or would they push it to 55? Would the new House majority be 20 seats or would it surpass 35 seats? 

I remember giving my election predictions, stating that we'd end up with 51 seats and a 20-seat majority, and getting lambasted for being too negative. Little did any of us know that those numbers would be proven laughably rosy once all the votes were counted. I won't belabor the point, but Republicans ended up severely underperforming, gaining just a four-seat majority in the House and losing a seat in the Senate. It was one of the worst election disasters in decades given expectations. 

Other results since then have pointed to a disconnect between the polling and outcomes. Democrats have surpassed Biden's 2020 margins in 20 of 27 special elections so far in 2023. During the 2023 general election, which focused on states like Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky, Democrats came away with surprising victories that gave them new hope heading into 2024. 

That's the cautionary tale that should leave Republicans very concerned. How indicative is Joe Biden's job approval regarding Democrat election performance? As of now, all the evidence says not very. Will that change with Biden himself on the ballot? Perhaps, but is that a factor that can be counted on given how well Democrats have done with mobilizing their voters, especially in suburban and urban areas? 

There are big issues here that the GOP must deal with if it is to actually win in 2024. One of those is the fundraising gap. As RedState reported, the RNC is getting absolutely trounced by the DNC, with the latter doubling up the former in money raised over the last few months. An illusion has set in with some on the right that money and donors don't matter (largely as a way to spite said big donors, who I agree, can be awful), but when push comes to shove, getting outspent by sometimes upwards of 70 to 80 percent can and will swing elections. 

Are you depressed yet? That's not the intention of this piece. Republicans can still do well in the next election. The warning is this, though: Democrats will not be defeated by default. The GOP can not simply sit on its hands, make a ton of mistakes, focus inwardly, and believe that the fundamentals will deliver a victory without any strategy or positive input. Biden's poll numbers are noteworthy, but they are not definitive. Treat them as a good sign, but nothing more. The election will ultimately be won on the ground, with organization, voting infrastructure, and a solid message. Nothing less.



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