NYT-Siena Poll Has Democrats Very Nervous – Trump Changing Demographics of Republican Support

Sundance reporting for Conservative Treehouse 

Much is being made of the New York Times/Siena poll of battleground states [Full Poll DATA HERE].  Indeed, the professional Democrats are apoplectic with the results, and the deeper you dig into the poll the worse it looks for Joe Biden.

(NYT) – Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin.  Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:

[NYT Article Link] – [ Crosstabs Link ]

Extending the results, if the election were held today, President Trump would win over 300 electoral votes.  However, lesser discussed is the structure of the race that is specific to MAGAnomics and President Trump.  Within the poll, President Trump is carrying the largest coalition of support amid black Democrats (22%) and Latinos (40%) in Republican history.  This is very unique to President Trump and not transferable to any other Republican candidate.

Within that reality, you find the reason for Politico [SEE HERE] and David Axelrod [SEE HERE] to sound the alarms.  “Not ‘bed-wetting,’” but legitimate concern, Axelrod wrote, as he simultaneously suggested that Joe Biden drop out of the race.  Axelrod says, “the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore. Only @JoeBiden can make this decision,” he continued. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”

As noted by Politico:

[…] They’re not outliers in showing Biden in peril: A CBS News/YouGov national poll also released on Sunday showed Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 48 percent — a reversal of Biden’s 51 percent to 47 percent victory in the 2020 election.

The poll results have already prompted tons of handwringing among prominent Democrats within half a day of their release. But it’s not just the topline numbers that should make the party wary of next year — and potentially uneasy about the off-year elections this week.

It’s also what’s buried in the crosstabs and the other questions — specific areas of weakness for Biden on policy, personal attributes and among key segments of the electorate central to his bid for a second term. (read more)

What the poll indicates is that President Trump is carrying a more broad and diverse coalition of support than any Republican politician in modern political history.

And that reality has professional Democrats having fits – highlighted in the face of George Stephanopoulos.