Jobs, Wages and Official Labor Reports Continue Showing Major Disconnects from Reality on Main Street
I have not written as much about the economic analysis coming from the official institutions of government because, well, quite frankly, none of it has made sense for several months. In this era of great pretending, I am reminded of the official catchphrase which began in 2021, “managing the transition.”
When you contemplate that “managing the transition” can also equate to controlling public opinion, and when you overlap the dynamic of large U.S. institutions manipulating information in order to control that opinion, then suddenly the trust in the data evaporates. When the reality of the economic situation you can measure, gauge, and sense on Main Street is increasingly detached from the government data about what’s happening on Main Street, things get weird.
EXAMPLE TODAY – Bureau of Labor and Statistics: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent.” That’s the topline as announced.
Then you drop to the adjustments on the same report: “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.”
September and October are generally significant upticks in labor, as the process for holiday preparation (shipping, transport, etc.) are underway. However, that historic pattern is no longer applicable. We see consumer trends in a downward direction, general uneasiness of the economic situation is relayed by businesses and consumers who are the key to reality, and yet the official reporting reflects something entirely different. Thus, you must ask yourself if this is part of the aforementioned “managing the transition.”
Additionally, staying with the bigger (non-pretending) picture, the U.S. government intentionally imports 7.5 million illegal aliens. Where are they in the data of employment conditions? Is there a metric that can evaluate the impact of a non-skilled labor influx that takes place simultaneous to a negative economic reality of inflation and diminished wages felt by those traditionally measured.
When you look carefully at the data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Dept of Labor (DoL) and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), what you come away with is the data-driven impression of something that you cannot actually see in the reality of the economic world around you. Quite simply, none of it makes sense.
If you begin talking about the disconnect, you enter a sphere of sounding like a conspiracy theorist. Would the official institutions of economic analysis actually manipulate data as an outcome of the larger goal to “manage the transition”? For me the answer is an emphatic, yes. However, how do you quantify that disconnect when the people with a vested interest in hiding any conflict are the same people who control the release of the data?
It is a reality that 75% of the American people feel their economic situation has worsened and continues to be worse. Many people are increasingly incapable of staying ahead of increases in cost of living. Govt institutions say inflation has come under control, yet the prices continue skyrocketing and everyone can feel it. Financial insecurity is the new normal amid a growing population, while the managers of the transition say, ‘all is well.’
The only thing that brings a person back from the world of crazy speak, is a review of actual ground reports on Main Street from people who are living their daily lives and trying to cope with the costs of maintaining that standard. Almost everyone expresses having more difficulty keeping their financial head above water. Yet the data released by government paints a different picture. The distance between reality and ‘official data’ has never been wider than it is today.
Fewer goods are being manufactured. Fewer goods are being shipped. Fewer sales are taking place. In a naturally contracting cycle this would mean less jobs. However, the data shows job growth.
♦Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
♦Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000).
♦Social assistance added 19,000 jobs in October, compared with the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months.
♦In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000), about in line with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and construction of buildings (+6,000).
♦Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity.
♦In October, employment in leisure and hospitality changed little (+19,000). The industry had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
♦Employment in professional and business services was little changed in October (+15,000) and has shown little net change since May. Employment in temporary help services changed little over the month (+7,000) but is 229,000 below its peak in March 2022.
♦In October, employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed (-12,000) and has shown little net change over the year. Over the month, warehousing and storage lost 11,000 jobs, while air transportation added 4,000 jobs.
♦Information employment changed little in October (-9,000). Employment in motion picture and sound recording continued to trend down (-5,000); the industry has lost 44,000 jobs since May, at least partially reflecting the impact of an ongoing labor dispute.
What do you see happening in/around your area? How are the employment conditions nearest you?
Post a Comment