Week 86: The Very Resistible Force Meets the Immovable Object in Donbas

streiff reporting for RedState 

The war in Ukraine slipped from the front pages because of the Israel-Hamas War. Be sure to read RedState's wall-to-wall coverage at the link.

The Israel-Hamas war has caused some folks to predict that this will result in less support for Ukraine. I don't see that happening for a couple of reasons. First, the equipment and munitions needed by Israel are not the same as that needed by Ukraine. As far as I can tell, a small quantity of 155mm artillery ammunition has been sent to Israel. Other than that, it is different stuff. Second, the ground war in Gaza will not last as long or have the same scale as Putin's War, so the "either/or" choice will never have to be made. The White House is pushing ahead with a $118 billion supplemental spending request, most of which is earmarked for Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to link Ukraine's cause with Israel's. He made some very supportive statements about Israel's struggle but got the brush off when he tried to get an invitation to Tel Aviv.

The big shock for me was that what appears to be a monumentally unsuccessful Russian offensive is continuing after at least ten days.

Politico-Strategic Level

Trouble in Paradise

So far, the fractious Ukrainian political parties have had an amazing show of unity under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky. This unity has paved the way for billions of dollars in military and economic aid as well as strong international political support. It has enabled Zelensky to attack corrupt elements that would have been impossible to touch two years ago. But one of the constants of a political system that relies upon voter support is someone else vying for the top slot. 

I don't pretend to be an authority on Ukrainian politics. My guess is that this bill of particulars goes nowhere until the war ends, and then it hits the fan. Remember that the Brits rewarded Churchill for winning World War II by tossing him out of office. I wouldn't be shocked to see Zelensky repudiated at the polls in the first election after the war.

Another Day, Another Red Line

Monday night, Ukraine attacked two Russian airbases in occupied Ukraine. Reports indicate at least nine attack helicopters were destroyed. See my coverage at Russia Claims US ATACMS Missiles Hit Two Airbases in Occupied Ukraine.

Only a year ago, Sergei Lavrov's goobers warned us that ATACMS was a "red line" we'd better not cross.

“If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be crossing a red line, and will become a direct party to the conflict,” Zakharova said.

Now Putin is saying, "No biggie, let's meet up for tea and bliny."

I don't know how many red lines we've crossed, but if you painted them white and laid them flat, they would look like you were driving 130mph across Wyoming.

It's worth repeating for the "this means World War III" and "Putin has nukes" crowd. Those red lines the Kremlin keeps woofing about are threats aimed at intimidating the stupid and the cowardly. Russia has thrown every conventional weapon it has into the Ukraine War. Russia won't use nukes in Ukraine. However, some Russian television commentators are talking about popping one over Siberia to show Russia means business because it doesn't have the political agency to make that decision without Chairman Xi's approval.

As Stonewall Jackson said, "Never take counsel of your fears." That applies doubly to s***ting yourself over everything Putin says.

Maybe True...Maybe Not

In an interview with the Kiev Post, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov claims that one thing hasn't changed since February 2022: the information Putin receives. According to Yusov, just as Putin was led to believe that Kiev would fall in 72 hours, he's being told everything at the front is going fine.

President Putin is being told Russia’s “special military operation” is going to plan, a top Kyiv intelligence official said – as anyone who told him the real situation on the front lines would “lose his cap or his head.”

In an exclusive interview, Andriy Yusov, spokesperson for the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told Kyiv Post that “some details of the real situation may be reaching him with some delay, but not the information on the situation in general.”

Referencing Russia’s ongoing and disastrous attempt to take the town of Avdiivka, Yusov said: “How can they tell him about daily losses of dozens of armored vehicles and hundreds of troops in one frontline section alone?”

The messenger risks being fired or worse, Yusov said.

I have no way of evaluating this claim. It could be that Putin and his military are engaged in a very tragic "trip to Abilene." [For those unfamiliar with Jerry B. Harvey's seminal Abilene Paradox — organizations and relationships fail through agreement rather than disagreement — you can read the summary at the link or view the classic video.] I don't think Putin is a dumb man; he has to know what is going on, but his political fate is tied to toughing this out and coming out of the war with something gained. The only way he does that is by outlasting NATO and the EU. His generals are pretty much in the same boat. They aren't dumb, but it is in their interests to tell implausible lies about the situation and in Putin's interests to pretend to believe the lies.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm

Natural causes or another tragic victim of "Russian Death Syndrome"?

Did Someone Mention Corruption?

One of the most irritating, and in my view, stupid, arguments about the war in Ukraine is the mindless mumbling of "Ukraine is corrupt" as if that justified the Russian invasion and NATO and the EU turning over 30 million people to live under the rule of Vladimir Putin. If we are against corruption, we could be helping Ukraine in every way we can. Not only is Ukraine less corrupt than Russia, but Ukraine is getting less corrupt while Russia is getting more so.

Shortly after Putin launched his invasion, we saw dozens of stories about Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers in storage depots stripped of engine parts and optics. There are stories of Russian contractors providing troops with AirSoft ballistic vests and helmets rather than military specification items. Of all those stories, this one takes the cake.

The clincher is that no one cares.

The plan didn't succeed; the so-called “fifth column” never materialized. That hasn't affected Petrovsky's career — he continues to fly on private jets and buy luxury apartments, registering them to third parties.

The Need to Cope

I follow a few pro-Russian accounts with a history of attempting to be accurate. I don't follow any of the major vatnik accounts because it is one thing to have sympathies but something entirely different to be a pathological liar who thinks their readers are brain-damaged and have no memory.

This is an excellent spoof of one of the biggest idiots, either side, commenting on the Ukraine War.

This Is Nucking Futs

A recurring theme of Russian propaganda is that someone is trying to seize western Ukraine. For a while, the Poles were the villains. Now, it's the Jews. According to this, the solution to the Palestinian problem is to give Palestine to the Palestinians and move the Jews to their historic homeland in, you guessed it, western Ukraine.

This is a throwback to the fantasy another famously anti-Semitic regime had of resettling all Jews in Madagascar.

I Couldn't Resist

Russia has apparently started sending humanitarian aid to Gaza, and this was just too good to let slide.

Operational Level

At the operational level, the big story is the Russian offensive that began about ten days ago is still in full swing. I began coverage of that last week (Week 85. The Curtain Goes Down on the Ukrainian Offensive and Russia Rolls for a Hard Six) saying:

On the ground, the Russians launched an offensive over several hundred miles of front lines. It hasn't gone anywhere so far, and with each passing day, the chances of it succeeding recede. It strikes me as a bold move calculated to force Ukraine to redistribute reserves massed in the South to stop Russian advances. The operational objective appears to have been to cut off a salient containing several thousand Ukrainian troops. I have more on that later in the post.

The Russians have gained a small amount of ground in two locations but have given back at least as much. As I said last week, the Russians are aggressively attacking, but they are doing so without supporting artillery in many cases and leaving an incredible amount of equipment behind. I'll get into that in more detail in the tactical overviews below.

F-16 Training Begins

The first training cycle for F16 pilots is getting underway in Arizona at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson.

F-16s should be in action over Ukraine by March.

Bad Week for Russian Aircraft

In addition to losing at least nine helicopters to Urkaine's first ATACMS strike, no less than four aircraft, all Su-25 strike fighters, were lost to antiaircraft fire. This is the latest, which was shot down Thursday while supporting the Russian assault on the Avdiivka salient.

New Weapons

Anti-Drone Backpack

The Russian Army has unveiled a new piece of anti-drone equipment for ground forces.

I have to admit I have my doubts. When I was commander of a Light Infantry company, my ruck weighed 65 pounds. Machinegunners added 26 pounds to their load for the M60. Their assistant gunners had about the same extra weight in the form of the tripod and spare barrel bag. The luckless guys carrying the M47 Dragon had another 50 pounds for the round (dummy in training) and night sight. I'm not convinced this get-up makes a lot of sense. Trust me; you don't get peak performance carrying that kind of weight over and above the soldiers's basic load-out.

Besides being heavy and cumbersome, the number one rule of infantry combat is if it looks different or acts like it's in charge, shoot it. This is a big "shoot me" sign pinned on whoever carries it.

You've Got to Be S***ting Me

I don't know what the hell is going on here. Are these locally fabricated field expedient company mortars? Or are these produced in a factory and bought by the Russian Army? I note the same high-quality welding is used in attaching the handgrip to the tube as was used on the T-34 tank. While there is no doubt it will shoot a mortar round, and the tube looks more than able to handle the anemic barrel pressure a mortar round produces, this contraption is impossible to aim. So, other than making noise, I'm not sure what it accomplishes. If this isn't something that a couple of troops decided to knock together and it has official sanction, this is really bad news.

Mine-Laying Drone

This video comes from inside a Russian command center where the activities of a Ukrainian mine-laying drone are being observed.

We frequently see the activities of attack drones, but this is probably just as important: the "blue collar" drone doing the scut work that no one really wants to do but that someone has to accomplish to make everything work.

Combat Operations

Over the last ten days, the major action has focused on the Ukrainian salient at Avdiivka, located outside Donetsk City. The Russian scheme of maneuver was to attack all along the front with a focus on the shoulders of the salient. If those areas gave way, everyone inside the salient would be in danger of being cut off, and they would have to retreat. So far, it has not succeeded. 

The ferocity of the combat is shown in this tweet (or "X" or whatever). For orientation, Krasnohorivka is at the 12 o'clock position on the large circle in the map above.

These two stories below give a good overview of what has happened. 

There are indications that the Ukrainians detected the Russians massing for the assault and struck those assembly areas. From what I've seen of this war, this attempt to fight a deep battle by directing drones and artillery against reserves is something of a novelty.

These videos are presented solely to show the intensity of the combat. 

And the daily attacks continue.

With the way the Russians are burning through men and equipment attacking some of the most mature and developed fortifications in Ukraine — this area has been fortified since the first Russian invasion in 2014 — one has to conclude there is some critical objective here, one that is so critical that it has Moscow's eye on it. The only speculation I can offer is that clipping off the Avdiivka salient would give Russia full possession of the historical borders of Donetsk. There was speculation about a year ago when the invasion was obviously going pear-shaped, that seizing all of those two oblasts could be marketed as an accomplishment that would justify a move to negotiations. Now that two other oblasts have also been annexed and they are divided between Russia and Ukraine, that reason doesn't make sense.

Something is going on that makes sense to Moscow, but I don't see it.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

The Hunt for Drones

Last week, I noted that the Ukrainians were devoting HIMARS to taking out drone stations and crews. A couple of videos have surfaced that indicate Ukraine had organized specialized teams for hunting drones and their supporting crew.

The tactic seems to be following a drone until it lands, identifying the location of the launch team, and hitting it with a HIMARS fragmentation warhead. This is much more cost-effective than shooting down the drone and imposes a loss of institutional knowledge on Russian drone operators.

Patience, Patience

This Is Why They Hate Cluster Munitions

I've posted a few times about the antipathy the "human rights" and "anti-war" groups in the West have carried on a very successful fight to ban cluster munitions. They argue that some of the bomblets are duds that civilians may pick up later and explode. The real reason they had cluster munitions is that they work. This shows the impact of a single DPICM round. With a unitary warhead, you would have had to use a very expensive precision-guided munition or several standard rounds of artillery ammunition.

Inside Russian Defenses

For all of its other manifest deficiencies, if the Russian Army has the time and equipment, it can dig. This thread shows why the Ukrainians have had so much trouble trying to punch through Russian fortifications. Once you are past the minefields and the artillery fire lifts, then the real work starts.

The Value of Not Being Seen

Some years ago, Monty Python produced a short film called "How Not To Be Seen."

The commander of this Russian flamethrower (for lack of a better term) vehicle should have taken the time to watch it.

Not Being Seen, Infantryman Version

That Is a Technique but One of the Least Preferred Techniques

I have to give the star of this video a max score for cojones. Because of the video cut, I'm not sure what happened next, but I hope the Ukrainians took advantage of it.

Drivers Training Needed

In all seriousness, this is what happens when you not only have a poorly trained driver, but you have an idiot track commander and a squad that isn't used to operating from an IFV. Throw in a hefty shot of fear and lack of situational awareness, and this is what you get. What this demonstrates is that the attrition suffered by the Russian Army is taking a toll on its ability to train new soldiers and pass on the lessons learned in over a year and a half of combat.

The Receiving End

This is a unique video. It was taken as a BM-21 rocket strike hit a Russian ammunition supply point close to the front lines. For reasons that aren't clear, the initial video is from a stationary camera videoing the field kitchen.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna

The Russians gained a small amount of ground near Kupiansk and gave ground in other areas. Fighting continues, but there is no indication that the Ukrainian lines are in danger of collapse. 

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

Ukrainian forces continue to make small advances on the Klishchiivka-Opytne axis of advance. Their objective is to turn the flank of the Russian forces in Bakhmut, put the lines of communication into Bakhmut under observed fire, and force the Russians to retreat. 

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

Action at the scene of the main Ukrainian thrust this summer continues, but not at the level of effort we've seen for several weeks. Both sides have made some gains. Ukrainian gains are on the southern edge of the penetration. The Russians continue, as they have for weeks, to attack the eastern shoulder in an attempt to encircle the attackers.

The more I look at the combat videos, the Ukrainian operational concept seems to be to attack Russian positions with no intention of occupying them, but rather to simply kill Russian soldiers and then withdraw back to fortified lines. There is an upside to this. You keep your light infantry in fortified positions, and you kill Russians. The downside is that I'm not sure you can win a war without maneuver or gain enough ground to make your allies feel like you are winning by doing this.

Berdiansk

On Monday, Ukraine used ATACMS missiles to smash the Russian airbases at Berdiansk and Luhansk. No imagery has emerged from the Luhansk strike, but commercially available satellite photos from Berdiansk show the scale of the destruction. This image shows eight, possibly nine, burned-out helicopters—the number of aircraft damaged and hauled away after the strike is unknown.

Kherson

Without a doubt, the biggest shock of the week happened in Kherson.

Four months ago (Week 70. The Reckoning for the Wagner Revolt Continues), Ukrainian forces launched a reconnaissance in force across the Dneiper River at the site of the ruined Antonovsky Bridge. That bridgehead was supplied by boats and used to launch commando raids along the Dneiper waterways.

On Tuesday, the Russian milblogging group Rybar posted this map with an alarm that Ukraine was pushing out of the bridgehead.

Then, it became apparent that Ukrainians had crossed the river in force at two locations farther upstream.

At the left edge of the map is the Antonovsky Bridge. The above map covers just to the east at Poima on the south side of the river. The red icon marks the location of another crossing.

This is a risky operation because the Ukrainians haven't thrown a bridge across the river yet. This means the operation is supported by boats, and the supplies must be transferred from truck to boat and back to truck. The risk is minimized because the Russians had pulled back from the river after the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dam (Ukraine's Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding) flooded their positions and reinforcements would have to move forward under direct observation and artillery fire.

I think the primary focus of this operation is to force Russia to pull troops out of other areas, including where they are attacking, to stop the advance. This operation was probably planned to support a breakthrough at Verbove, and so the forces and infrastructure were available for use.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Black Sea Fleet Weapons Depot

The Black Sea Fleets weapons depot at Saharnaya Golovka was attacked and damaged. The weapon used was either a Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG cruise missile or one of Ukraine's modified Neptune anti-ship missiles. There is no official word on the scale of the damage.

Russia

Bryansk

Kursk

A military encampment at Khalino airbase in Kursk Oblast was hit by a major drone strike overnight on 17-18 October. There is no word on the results.

What's Next

After Russia's current offensive winds down, which will happen within the next week, we'll be back to where we were a couple of weeks ago with a few critical changes. Ukraine has ATACMS. The strike at Berdyansk shows the vulnerability of helicopters parked on a runway. This will force the Russians to disperse their aircraft. That takes a toll on maintenance and the ability to plan operations. ATACMS also places the entire Russian logistics chain in jeopardy as everything is now within striking distance.

This year's rainy season promises to be much more active than last year's. Both sides are under time pressure. The Russians want to end this war because, unlike their public pronouncements, the longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets. 

Ukraine has its own time problems, but it has dodged some bullets. The race for House Speaker seems unlikely to result in a Ukraine skeptic in charge; in fact, the coup against McCarthy seems more likely to result in an empowered Democrat caucus than a stronger conservative voice in the GOP caucus. The new funding request by Biden will be an early test of that thesis.

Despite Slovakia (Week 84. Slovakia Stops Ukraine Aid as the Spring Offensive Nears Culminating Point) and Hungary pulling back from supporting Ukraine, there is no sign of waning support in Europe. The incoming Polish government (Polish Voters Just Nuked Themselves) is going to move much more in lockstep with Brussels than the outgoing one, which means Poland's role as an independent player will be diminished. Hiccups over things like Ukrainian grain imports will not become public mud wrestling sessions in the future.

The end of the Russian offensive will leave the Russian Army weaker in men and equipment than when it began. The Ukrainians have suffered their own losses, but the side fighting from inside fortifications with superb artillery support is going to have fewer casualties every time.

I don't think the Ukrainians can afford to take a hiatus over the winter after their spring offensive failed to meet expectations. The area near Verbove is still the most promising site for an offensive because two bands of the Suvrovikin Line have been breached. Expect to see fighting pick up there once the units pulled away to confront Russia's drive on Avdiivka are freed up.