Iowa Free Fall: Shocking Collapse of Support for Biden, as Women, Younger Voters Lead Mutiny
This was never supposed to happen to Joe Biden.
The Democratic National Committee would make sure of it, party leaders thought, in part by switching up the primary and caucus schedule, bumping the largely white, first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses and moving the South Carolina primary, which is comprised of roughly 26 percent Black voters, to the front of the line.
The "this" is Biden's precipitous free fall in the polls, of course.
The best and most ironic part is, from a conservative's perspective, a recent poll of likely Iowa voters found that Biden's approval rating has dropped by a shocking 19 percent — and that's not the worst of it.
According to the latest Emerson College Polling survey, women and younger voters have led the collapse of Biden's already-precarious approval ratings.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, summed up the survey this way:
Biden has lost some support in the Democratic caucus, with a large number of voters being undecided. Young voters and women voters are two groups who have lower support for Biden than their counterparts: only 38% of Democratic voters under 30 support Biden in a caucus, and 41% of women are undecided.”
While both Biden and Trump have lost some support in Iowa, it does not appear that any other candidate has been able to emerge as a clear alternative. Republicans saw DeSantis fall back into the pack, as the vote splintered amongst a crowded field, and Kennedy and Williamson have failed to gain traction in Iowa.”
A third of Iowa voters (33%) approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 54% disapprove of his performance in the Oval Office. Since May, Biden’s approval has decreased two points while his disapproval has remained steady at 54%. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds holds a 43% approval rating, while 41% disapprove of the job she is doing in office.
And how would Biden fare in Iowa if the presidential election were held today — against Donald Trump? Yeah, that's bad news for the Democrats, as well.
In a hypothetical presidential matchup between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Trump leads among Iowa voters 50% to 39%, with 11% undecided. This has remained relatively unchanged since the May poll, when Trump also held an 11-point lead.
In a hypothetical ballot with Trump, Biden, and Green Party candidate Cornel West, Trump holds 48% support, Biden with 35%, and West pulls 5%. The share of undecided voters with West on the ballot increases to 13%.
If you're (third-person) a Democrat Party leader, the results should scare the hell out of you.
Cornell West and the Third-Party Problem
While hell will freeze over and pigs will fly before Green Party candidate Cornell West wins the 2024 presidential election, the left-wing advocate's third-party bid will likely take votes away from both Biden and the eventual Republican nominee, with Biden and the Democrats likely to be hardest hit, per the survey.
I'm among those who believe that regardless of which Democrat and Republican win their respective party's nomination, the 2024 presidential election results will be close. A strong majority of support for both sides is already baked in, meaning the party line will largely hold as most Democrats and Republicans eventually come home and vote for their party's nominee.
So, assuming Biden is the Democrat nominee, Trump is the GOP nominee, and West takes more votes away from Biden than Trump, the third-party candidate could tilt the election in Trump's favor.
To complicate things further, the largest voting bloc in the country is comprised of independent voters, suggesting that if independent voters break strongly in one direction or the other, they may play the most critical role in the election.
It's the Economy, Stupid
On Biden's first day in office, it was almost like his singular objective was to dismantle the Trump presidency, beginning with canceling the Keystone XL Pipeline permit and never looking back.
Biden's war on fossil fuels was paramount, along with his obsession with climate change, AKA to Democrats as "the existential threat to mankind." The first sign was the out-of-control price of gas, culminating with seemingly ever-increasing prices at the grocery store.
All the while, Team Biden desperately told America that Bidenomics was actually working, suggesting it was just us who didn't realize it. Total nonsense, of course, but what isn't nonsense that Joe Biden does? At least half of it intentionally, to boot.
The Bottom Line
It now seems inconceivable that the Democrat Party won't find a way to jettison Biden — perhaps by coaxing him to bow out gracefully.
Then what? Kamala Harris? I doubt it — at least with respect to the head of the 2024 ticket.
Meanwhile, California's pathetic Governor Gavin Newsom eagerly awaits the call.
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