‘Milley had a point’

NatSec Daily at Politico

The conversation about Ukraine’s counteroffensive has shifted from one of excitement to disappointment, as Kyiv’s slow gains lead some U.S. officials and insiders alike to whisper: Should we have listened to Gen. MARK MILLEY?

In November, the Joint Chiefs chair said Ukraine’s strong military position and upcoming winter season combined to make a good time to consider peace talks. Plus, operations to expel Russian forces out of the whole of Ukraine –— which VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY demands — had a slim chance of success. Administration officials immediately scrambled to assure their counterparts in Kyiv that Milley was riffing and not reflecting a secret sentiment in the White House.

But listen to Milley lately, and you can hear the implicit “I told you so.”

“If the end state is Ukraine is a free, independent, sovereign country with its territory intact, that will take a considerable level of effort yet to come,” he told The Washington Post this week. “That’s gonna take a long, long time, but you can also achieve those objectives — maybe, possibly — through some sort of diplomatic means.”

One U.S. official, who didn’t want to run afoul of the administration by offering real views on the record, said the realities of the counteroffensive are sinking in around Washington. Ukraine’s tactics to preserve troops and equipment, Russia’s dug-in positions and the fight on multiple fronts have led to slow advances, shifting a possible breakthrough further into the future.

While the U.S. still backs Ukraine’s fight, the official said, “We may have missed a window to push for earlier talks.” The official also stressed, however, that few believe Moscow has been at all serious about negotiations since the war’s start. And no senior leader felt then, or feels now, that the counteroffensive was a mistaken play, considering how Ukraine maintains full support from the West and has had remarkable success throughout the war. Still, the official declared: “Milley had a point.”

Another U.S. official said the administration is increasingly asking itself this question: “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?”

Notably, no one is treating Milley like a prophet (and we have no indication the general is acting like he called it right from the start). Many people we talked to hastened to add that Kyiv and Moscow actually discussed peace before, that Ukraine recaptured lost northern territory late last year and that allies at this year’s NATO summit committed to the long-term defense of Ukraine. And consider the politics: The administration would’ve been shouted down for dragging Kyiv to the table before the counteroffensive got underway.

But the administration’s once-private outlook is more pessimistic than it let on. As the Post revealed Thursday, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that the operation will fail to achieve a key goal: reaching the southeastern city of Melitopol.

Retaking the city, a Russian logistics hub, has been a crucial piece of Ukraine’s overarching strategy to cut off the land bridge Moscow uses to move its forces and equipment to Crimea and other occupied territories along the Sea of Azov.

One top general acknowledged the challenges Ukraine is facing in its current operations in a roundtable with reporters Friday. ”Nothing ever goes as well as you had hoped it would go if you could do everything perfectly,” said Gen. JAMES HECKER, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Africa. The fields they are pushing through are so heavily mined that Ukrainian forces are finding five or six mines per square meter, Hecker said.

“It’s definite progress, but it’s slow progress. And of course, all of us would like fast progress. But in a situation like this that’s heavily defended and fortified, it’s very difficult,” he said. “So slow progress is good, better than the alternatives.”

The administration, however, doesn’t appear like it plans to shift course.

“President [JOE] BIDEN has been clear that any decisions about a negotiated settlement to the war are going to be up to Ukraine and President Zelenskyy. We have been clear about the principle of ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.’ And we are going to continue to focus on doing everything we can to help Ukraine defend its country against Russia’s brutal invasion,” said NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON.

Also The Inbox

U.S. MAYBE LOOKING TO LEAVE NIGER: Hecker also said today that the U.S. is making plans to move assets and troops out of Niger to other allied countries in the region if it’s forced to leave Niger.

The U.S., which has 1,100 troops and a $110 million drone base in the country, has been allowed to remain in Niger in the aftermath of the coup. But the political crisis in Niger shows no signs of unwinding, as West African leaders continue to raise the possibility of military intervention to restore ousted Nigerien President MOHAMED BAZOUM and the junta shows no signs of backing down.

It also comes as France and the U.S. increasingly find themselves at odds over how to respond to the coup, as our own NAHAL TOOSI and CLEA CAULCUTTreport.

F-16 TRAINING IN THE U.S.? The Biden administration has offered to train Ukrainian pilots in the United States if the European partners leading the training effort reach capacity, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER told Lara on Friday.

Ryder declined to say where the training would take place, but it’s likely it would happen at the 162nd Air Wing, stationed at Morris Air Force Base near Tucson. The 162nd is a unit of the Arizona Air National Guard that acts as the primary international F-16 schoolhouse. CBS News first reported the offer.

That comes as the U.S. gave the Netherlands and Denmark the green light to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, the Associated Press’ MIKE CORDER, SAMYA KULLAB and JAN OLSEN report, citing American and European officials. On Thursday, two U.S. officials told Lara that the Biden administration had formally approved the transfer of F-16 training materials to Denmark, allowing Ukrainian pilots to begin training on the long-anticipated fighter jets.