Week 72: Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Ground Combat Gains Velocity
This past week most of the story in Putin’s War was political. The NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, brought Ukraine a giant step closer to joining NATO, but even without the invitation to join, Ukraine has achieved a special status with NATO and bilateral defense agreements with each of the G-7 nations. The Ukrainian offensive continues to grind on and is beginning to show signs of making progress.
Politico-Strategic Level
NATO Summit
The major Ukraine story of the week was the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. While some have portrayed it as a failure for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, I think that is the wrong takeaway. This is not to say all went smoothly; it didn’t. But more important than what Ukraine did or didn’t get, we’re beginning to see a fault line develop between the US and Germany, on the one hand, and the rest of NATO on the other. See more of my analysis here: NATO Summit Highlights NATO Unity on Ukraine but Also Reveals Divisions.
Turkey Decides Where Its Bread is Buttered
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing kissy-face with Vladimir Putin while simultaneously supporting Ukraine. The last week has seen Erdogan take steps that seemed improbable only a few months ago. He agreed to Sweden’s accession to NATO and announced his support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. He released five senior Azov regiment commanders who were supposed, or so we thought, to be interned for the duration of the war (see Turkey Withdraws All Objections to Sweden Entering NATO; Vladimir Putin’s Self-Own Is Now Complete and Turkey’s Erdogan Delivers Two Stinging Defeats to Vladimir Putin in Just One Day).
Rumors are also flying that if Russia refuses an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Erdogan will do it unilaterally using Turkish surface combatants to escort civilian freighters to and from Ukrainian ports and dare Putin to interfere.
Russia Purges Generals Like It Is 1937 All Over Again
I posted today on the massive post-Prigozhin Mutiny purge in the Russian Army, see Chaos Reigns as 28 Top Russian Commanders Are Sacked or Disappeared After Prigozhin’s Revolt but He Lives Large in St. Petersburg. Here are a couple of other perspectives from Twitter accounts that I’ve found reliable.
More Connection With Russia Erased
As I’ve posted several times, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has done more to build a Ukrainian identity and nationalism than any event of the past few centuries. More people are speaking Ukrainian. More Ukrainians are looking to their own heritage rather than the fake Russian identity foisted on them by a few centuries of Russian and Soviet Rule.
A Soviet-era Motherland statue, some 335 feet in height, is a dominant element of the Kiev skyline. By the end of the summer, the hammer-and-sickle of the USSR will be replaced by the symbol of Ukraine.
Poland and Ukraine Acknowledge an Atrocity
Between 1943 and 1945, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army carried out massacres of the ethnic Polish minority living in western Ukraine and Belarus. As many as 100,000 ethnic Poles may have been slaughtered for the purpose of ethnic cleansing. This has remained a sore point in Ukraine-Polish relations. Reconciliation has been a fraught affair and probably hit a nadir in 2019 when Ukraine granted WWII veteran status to all members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. This pressure point has been used extensively by the Russians to make Poland-Ukraine cooperation as difficult as possible.
Ukraine’s Zelensky and Poland’s Duda seem to be giving it another try. I doubt this will be the last word on the issue, but it is a good try.
BAE Expands Ammunition Production
The availability of 155mm artillery ammunition is a crucial concern of Ukraine. The US has recently opened a new ammunition plant, the first contractor-owned ammunition plant to start operations since the end of the Korean War. Rheinmetall is taking ammunition plants out of mothballs. In all, eight NATO nations are producing artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Now BAE is increasing its ammunition production by eight-fold.
What this means in terms of projectiles and propellant, I don’t know. What I will say is that anyone who thinks Ukraine is the only combatant having ammunition shortages is not being honest. The difference is that Russia has no way of fixing its shortage or the supply chain linking the factories to the front.
Zelensky Visits Snake Island
One battle that remains an icon of this war is the capture and recapture of Snake Island. The Russian Navy captured Snake Island from Ukrainian border troops on February 26, but not before the legendary “Russian warship, go f*** yourself” response to a demand they surrender. Definitely up there in the ranks of responses to surrender demands with Anthony McAuliffe. A year ago, after being isolated by Ukrainian anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, the Russians abandoned the island in a “good will gesture” and retaken by Ukrainian special forces; see Week 18. Snake Island, Prisoner Exchanges, Calculated Terror, and the War in Donbas.
Zelensky visited the island to commemorate the 500th day of the war and the anniversary of its liberation.
Ukrainian Propaganda Videos
I am just dropping these in here because, as someone who spent more time than I wish to think about in the advertising and public relations world, I appreciate good work.
They’ve Got Nukes!!!
To be honest, I’ve always thought that Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine had much more in common with Cleavon Little’s escape from the town welcoming committee than it did with foreign policy or military strategy. Here is the number of times former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev alone threatened to nuke the West. Too bad Lavrov, Peskov, and Putin’s threats are missing.
While you’re here, enjoy Cleavon Little in his iconic role.
Operational Level
Are Prisoner Exchanges About to End?
As I’ve mentioned before, prisoner exchanges are the only visible evidence of any diplomatic contact between Russia and Ukraine. Those may be coming to an end. Twenty-four Ukrainian PWs have been shipped to Rostov-on-Don, where Russian operations in Ukraine are headquartered. They are all members of the Azov regiment who defended the Azovstal works (see Mariupol Surrenders to the Russian Army After Epic 82-Day Siege), and “they’re standing trial on charges of “forcibly seizing power” and “participating in a terrorist organization.” What makes matters stranger is that Russia released the five senior officers at Azovstal to Turkey (Vladimir Putin Agrees to Swap 215 Ukrainian PWs Including Foreign Volunteers, for 55 Russians. What’s up With That? and Turkey’s Erdogan Delivers Two Stinging Defeats to Vladimir Putin in Just One Day) and two Azovstal defenders selected for prosecution were recently exchanged for Russian prisoners.
If this goes through to sentencing, it is difficult to imagine Ukraine not cranking up war crimes trials for an equal or greater number of Russians.
Rheinmetall to Open Tank Factory in Ukraine
As they say, “money talks and bullsh** walks.” German mega-defense conglomerate Rheinmetall is opening a joint-venture tank factory in Ukraine. This tells you more about where NATO and the EU are going on the war in Ukraine than any meeting. This means that Ukraine will produce some variant of the Leopard 2 tank and won’t need export licenses to use them in combat.
To find where it is, we need to ask the Russians. It is in the salient of southwest Ukraine that borders Hungary and Romania.
German-Polish Joint Venture Falls Apart
Some weeks ago, I posted about a German-Polish tank repair facility that was to operate in Poland. That deal has fallen apart over “very unrealistic pricing expectations” by the Poles. If you’ve ever built a house, you know what they’re talking about. This gives the appearance that the Poles figured the Germans had so much money that they wouldn’t bother looking at the invoices.
The “pricing expectations” will become more reasonable with time because some money is better than no money.
Turkey Opens Drone Factory in Ukraine
During the early days of the war, the Turkish Bayraktar drone was the critical weapon in stopping the Russian invasion. Now the Turks, like the Germans, are opening a joint venture in Ukraine.
New Weapons
SCALP-EG
France announced it is supplying Ukraine with SCALP-EG, the French version of the Storm Shadow cruise missile. For information on the Storm Shadow, see the “New Weapons” section here, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives, and Russia Says ‘Family Guy’ Is a Meany-Pants.
Combat Operations
Is There a Reason, or Is It Just Stupid?
There is no good explanation for how an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system was hit by HIMARS, which has a max range of about 85km. Was it sent up close to the front lines to try to hit GMLRS? Was the plan to hit Ukrainian aircraft from ambush before they could launch Storm Shadow? Or is situational awareness just poor, and the S-400 put in the wrong place?
Troop Protection is the Coin of the Realm
I’ve commented a couple of times on the main difference we see between Russian and NATO/Western armored vehicles. Anytime a Russian vehicle has a penetration of the crew compartment; there is a catastrophic kill. By that, I mean the vehicle explodes, killing the crew, and the infantry dismounts. Penetration of Western vehicles does not produce catastrophic kills, and the crew and passengers generally walk away with minor injuries.
This is another good read on the same subject, Bradley survives mine blast and anti-tank missile strike.
Crew survivability generates crew confidence. Crew confidence yields combat results.
Someone Didn’t Read the Manuals
Most of the combat f***-up videos I see are courtesy of the Russian Army. This one is a Ukrainian company in an attack in Zaporizhzhia from June.
All the losses seem to be from anti-tank mines. The Ukrainian demining efforts stopped short of their objective. As soon as the vehicles left the cleared corridor, they hit mines. There is no artillery support. There are no engineering vehicles. Infantry, if there is any, never dismounts.
The end result is two tanks, and five M1224 MRAPs put out of action.
This is inexcusable. It reflects the Soviet philosophy of throwing as many men and vehicles at the problem as you need to bull through it.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Novel Solution for Clearing Minefields
Above, I show what can happen if a minefield isn’t cleared. Usually, you use a mine plow/roller or Mine Clearing Line Charge to cut your way through a minefield. But sometimes finesse works, too. Here a drone does the heavy lifting.
Defense Near Avdiivka
Here a Russian company attacks a Ukrainian position near the Donetsk city of Avdiivka.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
This week Russian forces kicked off what appears to be a limited objective attack or a spoiling attack in the Svatove area near Novoselivske. There is little information coming out of that fight. It looks like the Russians had initial success over a front of about a mile and then gave back most of what they gained. It is hard to tell exactly what is up here. Last winter, the Russians attempted an offensive in the same area with little to show for it. Maybe the Russians saw an opportunity for a gain here while everyone else was fixated further south. Alternatively, and I think most likely, this is a spoiling attack designed to get the Ukrainians to pull troops out of the main effort to stop Russian gains here.
Donbas
The Ukrainian Army continues to press its low-level offensive around Bakhmut. At least one of the brigades allocated to the Ukrainian offensive has been identified here, indicating the Ukrainians are serious about the effort.
Ammunition Dump Attacked
A Russian ammunition dump in Sorokyne was destroyed. The distance from the front says Storm Shadow was used. This plinking of Russian ammunition and fuel depots that were previously unreachable will start to bite the Russian front-line units when immediate ammunition stocks are depleted. Because of Russian dependency on the rail trunk through Donbas to supply all units to the west, destroying dumps in places like Sorokyne have an outsized effect.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
The Ukrainian Army continues pushing on the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis. The front line is near Robotyne, which is also the leading edge of the Russian obstacle belt. There were reports last night via Russian milbloggers on Telegram that the Ukrainians had broken through the obstacles east of Robotyne, but so far, no evidence is available to substantiate that claim.
The Russians have been aggressive about counterattacking into Ukrainian advances. While this doesn’t seem to have been effective, it probably has made the Ukrainian offensive actions less aggressive than they might have been. This is the area commanded by Russian Major General Popov before he was canned for asking for time to rest and refit his units.
Another One Bites the Dust
On July 11, the commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed in a strike on his headquarters in Berdiansk. The weapon was a Storm Shadow. This is not trivial. Russia has only five military districts. The Southern Military District commands the war effort in Ukraine.
We’ve Seen This Before
Whenever the Russians evacuate an area, they execute a scorched earth policy. Reports indicate that the Russians are preparing for that eventuality in Zaporizhzhia.
Historian and Russia observer Stephen Kotkin noted that if Russia is forced to give ground, it will undoubtedly devastate the territory they evacuate because that’s what they do. (The video is cued to this section, but the whole thing is worth the listen despite Ezra Klein being involved.)
Kherson
The Ukrainian Army continues to occupy a bridgehead over the Dneiper River at the site of the wrecked Antonovsky Bridge. It doesn’t appear to be expanding, but the Russians can’t bring the combat power to bear to attack it either. There are anecdotal accounts of a significant decrease in the volume of Russian artillery fire. This is plausible because of Ukrainian cruise missile strikes on major ammunition depots along the rail trunk in Russia’s “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea.
Rear Areas
Russia
A Story in Two Parts
Monday, Russian Navy officer and former submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky was shot multiple times while on his morning run. He was killed in a location that was not covered by CCTV. Rzhitsky had previously commanded the Kilo-class diesel-electric submarine Krasnodar based in Sevastopol. Under his command, the Krasnodar frequently launched Kaliber missiles against Ukrainian population centers.
The twist is that Rzhitsky was a little on the anal-retentive side in recording his jogging times and routes on the Strava fitness app. The last run before his killing was liked by four people.
Unsurprisingly, Ukrainian military intelligence has denied doing the hit, but in denying it, they went out of their way to provide many details that only the shooter would have known.
“Stanislav Rzhytsky, the former commander of the submarine ‘Krasnodar’ of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy, was shot dead in Krasnodar, Russia.
“On July 10, he jogged in the Krasnodar Park of Culture and Recreation named after the 30th anniversary of victory.“Around six in the morning, seven shots were fired at him from a Makarov pistol. As a result of gunshot wounds, Rzytsky died on the spot.”
“Due to heavy rain, the park was deserted, so there are no witnesses who could provide details or identify the attacker.”
The Ukrainians have made no secret that they consider anyone in the kill chain for missiles fired at Ukrainian cities legitimate targets for retribution.
Russian Electric Grid Targeted
What’s Next?
A month into Ukraine’s offensive, we are starting to see some outlines of the plan and the Russian counter to it.
The Ukrainians have picked up the pace of their attacks on Russian supply depots, headquarters, anti-aircraft, and electronic warfare targets deep inside occupied Ukraine. The effect is to deprive the Russian forces of fuel, ammunition, and situational awareness.
Ukraine has two credible offensives underway. The push south of Bakhmut can potentially gain significant ground, but I still don’t think it is a credible offensive axis because of the geography. The fact that one of the Ukrainian reserve brigades has been identified shows something real is happening. The second offensive axis is Orikhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol. I continue to think this is where the main attack will come. Finally, there is the bridgehead over the Dneiper that is acting like a laser pointer for the figurative Russian cat in Kherson.
The Russians have not been passive, but, in my view, they may be overly aggressive. Every Ukrainian advance is met with a vigorous counterattack, and the Russians are trying to put together their own offensive in the Kharkiv area.
The Ukrainians may continue to nibble the Russians to death, but I think there is a metric, probably the volume of Russian artillery fire, that will trigger a large-scale attack on the Russian defensive lines around Robotyne. About 11 specially trained brigades haven’t been seen in combat to date. They are being held back for something.
Unlike the past year, the Ukrainian military has been very selective about the video it is releasing, and it is becoming much more challenging to get a feel for what is happening.
As the man said:
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