China's Great False Front May Be Cracking
China is presenting a great facade to the world; the whole nation hides behind a false front.
Years ago, in small towns everywhere, it was common for businesses to construct a simple, cheap one-story building with a big square “false front” of planks, to make the building look bigger and more impressive than it actually was. This presented would-be customers with a look of prosperity that the business didn’t really have, and offered confidence based only on the veneer of a few planks. China’s government – the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – is a lot like this. They present a lot of false data on everything from their economy to their domestic agriculture, to threatening responses to any questions of COVID-19 origins, to the credibility of defectors, to covering up their disaffected younger generation. And it’s that younger generation that is really having some issues:
When National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said on June 15 that only about six million people between 16 and 24 in China were still searching for jobs, he did not count the 11.6 million new graduates about to enter the job markets.
His figure also excluded the many in their 30s who’ve been suffering from unstable income. Some of these people now refer to themselves as the youth of “four nos,” a trending term on the internet in China.
“A lot of people expect their partners to be homeowners, but property prices are really too high,” a 30-year-old man says in an interview with a video channel. “It’s not that I did not work hard – my hard work did not produce good results,” he says, adding that he has worked for a small food delivery firm in Beijing since 2020 but is owed 20,000 yuan (US$2,791) in service fees. A decade ago he could afford to date but now he can’t, he says, – and if he has children, they will suffer in this world.
Note that first sentence; China’s National Bureau of Statistics is deliberately understating that issue, and almost certainly doing so deliberately.This is a pattern for the Chinese Communist Party. Their youth are facing a number of crises, not least of which is a lack of employment prospects. They lack prospects for home ownership and marriage, and many of them are opting out of reproducing; there is a movement among the up-and-coming to adopt a “Four Nos” posture:
The Chinese government is being called upon to take action to stimulate the economy and create jobs at a time when young people in substantial numbers have adopted an attitude that’s termed the “four nos”: no interest in dating, getting married, buying a home or having a child.
This is a recipe for national suicide, and what’s discouraging is the statement that the Chinese government is being called upon to take action (who, precisely, is calling upon the Chinese government is left unsaid), when the best thing the CCP could do is to get out of the way. Instead, the CCP whitewashes over the problem.
Indeed, hiding China’s internal economic problems is a matter of law in China; the Chinese Communist Party’s recently-passed anti-espionage laws make it a crime not only for foreigners but also Chinese nationals to release information harmful to the CCP or Chairman Xi specifically.
To have a closer look, Article 7 of China’s anti-espionage law vaguely but pointedly states that all citizens bear the obligation to protect the country and its national security, honour and interests. Article 8 of the new foreign relations law and Article 10 of the anti-espionage law both state that ‘anyone or any organisation that violates this law and relevant laws, and engages in activities harming national interests in foreign relations, shall be held legally responsible’. Notably, these laws don’t only target foreigners but extend to everyone residing in the country, making it clear that anyone aiding foreign actions contrary to Beijing’s interests could face severe legal consequences.
The new laws vest local authorities with sweeping powers to neutralise anyone suspected of aiding, abetting or encouraging foreign sanctions or actions deemed adversarial to Beijing and Xi.
It doesn’t take a lot of time to work out what “deemed adversarial” means; that would be anything that presents the CCP or Chairman Xi in a bad light. And this new law gives the CCP further license to squash dissemination of any adversarial information. This is how Communist governments work; by using legislation and government authority to squash “disinformation.”
Sound familiar?
This false front extends far beyond depictions of China’s military, economy and youth. On the issue of China’s homeless population, YouTube vlogger serpentza, who lived in China for years, has a new story out contradicting the Chinese Communist Party’s claims on Chinese homelessness, and as usual, he brings the video:
Sort through serpentza’s videos and you’ll see much, much more.
If you sort through all the propaganda, though, the picture that emerges of China is one of a dying giant. Chinese exports are dropping. The Chinese people are not reproducing; their children/woman ratio is 1.5/1, well below replacement rate. China is a huge nation, and any nation as big as China won’t just collapse overnight. But there are frequently tipping points in the decline of any nation, and they can come on suddenly.
In the 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises, Ernest Hemingway presents a conversation between two characters, one of whom has gone bankrupt:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
That may well be what happens to China; gradually, then suddenly, especially if they have another, larger Tiananmen Square-like event. China could suddenly collapse, and it’s impossible to predict when—and what replaces it is unlikely to be a unified nation; look at Chinese history and you’ll see what China’s future is likely to resemble. That possibility isn’t good for China and won’t be good for the rest of Asia – or the world.
Now, though, there may be some cracks in the facade.
China’s financial regulators have invited some of the world’s biggest investors to a rare symposium next week, three sources said, seeking to encourage foreigners to keep investing in the world’s second-largest economy despite its recent weakness and rising geopolitical tensions.
The meeting in Beijing next Friday will focus on the current conditions of U.S. dollar-denominated investment firms in China and the main challenges facing them, according to the sources who have direct knowledge of the matter and invitation documents reviewed by Reuters.
The gathering comes at a time when global investors and banks are warning that confidence is waning in China’s economic outlook. The country’s post-pandemic recovery is quickly losing steam and Sino-U.S. relations are at a low over national security issues — including Taiwan, U.S. export bans on advanced technologies and China’s state-led industrial policies.
This is the only thing that might save China. The demographic issues may be past salvation, but their economic woes could be addressed. To do that, though, the Chinese Communist Party would have to cut out the propaganda, scrupulously examine the economic practices of other nations, adopt what works and cut out what doesn’t. But that would mean, effectively, giving way to a free market economy and letting the Chinese Communist Party join the Soviet Union on the ash heap of history.
That doesn’t seem likely. The CCP has China by the throat, and they won’t let go until they are forced to. Only the Chinese people can do that.
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