Putin's War, Week 57. Waiting for Godot.
In Samuel Beckett’s 1953 play, Waiting for Godot, two characters spend the play waiting upon the Godot character to arrive. In the end, they get a message that says he won’t be coming. That’s sort of the feeling that is beginning to set in around Ukraine’s expected spring offensive. Launching the offensive is definitely a high downside risk endeavor. If it doesn’t work, a lot of damage will have been done to Ukraine’s ability to get continued support from the West. But, on the other hand, if it doesn’t happen, the war is headed for frozen conflict status, and the question of further Western support is again in question.
There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the past week, so as we wait expectantly for Godot to arrive, read some of my most recent updates.
Week 56. Putin Indicted, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time
Week 55. Russia Drops US Recon Drone, Ukraine Suffers From ‘Loose Lips’ in Bakhmut
Week 54. More NordStream Melodrama, Russia Shows Diplomatic Weakness
Week 53. Zelensky Blows a Big Play, Moscow Dodges a Drone Attack
Week 52. US and China Face off, Mystery Weapon Strikes, and Happy Anniversary
Week 51. Russia’s Slow-Mo Offensive Gets Underway
Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm
Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive
Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukraine
Week 47. Gerasimov Shakes Up the Russian Army, and the Spring Offensive Looms
Week 46. Putin Shakes up the Army Command, and Tanks for Ukraine Are on the Way
Week 45: Putin Declares a Cease Fire, Zelensky Gets Putin’s Terms for Peace
Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again
Week 43. Zelensky Visits Washington, Putin Tries to Push Belarus Into War
Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Tools to Do It With
Many more are available at this link.
Politico-Strategic Level
New York Times Exposes the Grifter-Military Complex of Ukraine Aid
Monday, the New York Times did a great service to Ukraine by lifting the curtain on the clown show of frauds who have been profiteering from the war.
My colleague Bonchie covered two of the more odious frauds in the crew, Adam f***ing Kinzinger (Adam Kinzinger Connected to Alleged Ukraine Scam Operation) and Malcolm Nance (Infamous LARPing MSNBC Hack Who ‘Fought’ in Ukraine Accused of Stolen Valor). This, I think, is only the tip of the iceberg. The Ukraine aid organizations have a nasty little social media war underway, and it is just a matter of time before another major aid group goes down in flames.
It’s no secret where my sympathies lie in this war, but it has long been obvious to even a casual observer that a lot of the “private sector” aid solicited on behalf of Ukraine was a grift. I haven’t donated a penny to any of the groups because I don’t trust them. Unless law enforcement cracks down hard on these thieves, the money needed to support Ukrainian families, refugees, and some of the war effort will dry up, and rightfully so. For the same reason, I hope the US government appoints an Inspector General for the Ukraine aid programs who will give regular and unvarnished reports to the public.
Nothing is going to hurt Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and keep its citizens safe more than questions about financial shenanigans.
Zelensky Tamps Down Spring Offensive Expectations
This is an excellent political move by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The hyping of a coming offensive by Ukrainian forces in the Western media is building an expectation of a) success and b) shortening the war.
By this statement, Zelensky is buying an insurance policy against failure and pointing the finger of blame. Conversely, if the offensive is successful, it is despite the support he received, not because of it. It is a classic “heads-I-win-tails-you-lose” situation.
My assessment is that properly led and with professional planning, the Ukrainians have the potential to change the dynamic and rack up huge gains in any one theater they choose. The operative word is potential. The questions are:
Have the Ukrainians purged Soviet-era senior commanders where they plan to attack?
Have the Ukrainians stockpiled the ammunition and fuel to sustain a breakthrough attack?
Can the Ukrainian battle staffs synchronize deep attacks, Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), counter-battery fires, fire support, armor, and infantry into one scheme of maneuver?
Can the Ukrainian high command consolidate the new units and equipment into a single force, or will it spread out the Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks so that “everybody gets a little?”
Putin’s ICC Indictment Shows Russian Power Seeping Away
Earlier in March, the International Criminal Court indicted Vladimir Putin for war crimes; see International Criminal Court Issues Arrest Warrant for Vladimir Putin and Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time. While I have no use for the ICC, I have to admit that indicting Putin may have justified its entire sordid existence.
Russia runs two cheap knock-offs of Western institutions. First, it leads a mutual defense treaty organization, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bizarro world version of NATO. This organization is on its ass because one of its now former members, Georgia, was invaded by Russia. Another member, Armenia, is actually at war, and CSTO is refusing to help. The Eurasian Economic Union is what a venture capital fund run by hoboes and vagrants might look like.
On November 22, Vladimir Putin visited Yerevan, Armenia, for a CSTO summit and was repeatedly snubbed by Armenia’s president. Now Armenia has announced that if Putin visits again, he will be subject to arrest.
Russia has warned Armenia of “serious consequences” if it recognizes ICC jurisdiction. Armenia could rightfully ask, what more can you do to us than stand idly by and watch us get our ass kicked in a war?
China Not Happy Over Russia’s Nukes-to-Belarus Decision
Sunday, Putin re-announced his announcement from June 2022 that Russia would train the Belarusian military how to use some Russian nuclear weapons and it would store them in Belarus. Everything Putin announced had been announced previously, and no one paid any attention. This time, the announcement was tied to the transfer of British Challenger 2 tanks, along with depleted uranium ammunition, to Ukraine.
See Putin’s Announcement That Russia Will Store Nuclear Weapons in Belarus Shows How Stupid He Thinks You Are for my analysis of the announcement.
Days before, during Xi’s visit to Moscow, Putin and Xi issued a joint statement declaring, “All nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories & must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.”
Shortly after Putin’s announcement, the Chinese issued a statement disapproving of the deployment.
I think we can, at least for the moment, put aside any notion that China and Russia are pursuing the same diplomatic, economic, or military goals.
Prigozhin Turns His Attention Back to Africa
Wagner Group chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin is withdrawing from Ukraine to focus on his core business in Africa. Prigozhin’s high-visibility feud with the Russian military high command has attracted much attention, particularly since Prigozhin has hinted at political aspirations. His mercenaries have made the only substantial advances but at a heavy cost, and the antagonism between him and the military has led to allegations that his troops are denied artillery support, and they are no longer allowed to recruit from Russian prisons.
He’s made his point. If the Bakhmut front collapses after he leaves, he can truthfully say, “When I left, everything was going fine.”
Scandinavia Combines Air Forces
Another win for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is knocking the Scandinavian nations from their sense of peaceful lethargy into the realization that Russia poses a real, rather than merely a theoretical, threat.
The joint command allows these nations to run joint training and maintenance programs. It also allows them to “specialize” in specific capabilities like SEAD, strike, and air-to-air rather than maintaining an all-around capability.
EU Creates Ammunition Manufacturing Consortium
One of the lessons learned thus far from Putin’s War in Ukraine is that estimates of artillery ammunition expenditure have been low-balled in the extreme. The upshot is that national defense establishments are making major strides in improving their ability to manufacture ammunition across Europe and in the United States. This effort is possible because of NATO standardization agreements on ammunition.
Russia Missing Weapons Sales Deliveries
In addition to its resource extraction/colonial economy, Russia relies on weapons exports for foreign exchange. One of its major customers, India, is complaining that Russia is not meeting delivery dates. Russia has a GDP smaller than Texas. It doesn’t have the manufacturing base, particularly under international sanctions, to replace losses in Ukraine and to export financially significant quantities of arms.
Russia’s Downing of US Drone Bears Fruit…For Russia
A couple of weeks ago, Russian Air Force Su-27 fighters harassed a USAF MQ-9 drone in international airspace over the Black Sea. Eventually, one of the Russian pilots collided with the drone and made it crash into the ocean. Unfortunately, rather than stand on international law and enforce freedom of navigation, the Biden White House folded like a cheap suit. This will not be unnoticed in Beijing or Tehran; see Biden’s Defense Department Turns Tail and Runs After Russia’s Challenge Over the Black Sea.
New Regional Administrations Created
Though Zelensky has started talking down a major offensive operation, other actions indicate that the plans are underway. New military governments for areas of Luhansk now occupied by Russia may be a head fake, but the downside to that is building expectations. I would be willing to bet other military governments have already been established.
Revealed: Brexit Was Just a Cover for Preparing for War in Ukraine
Periodically, I post these clips from Russian state television to show that we are dealing with a regime that, at its core, is batsh** crazy. According to this, Brexit was necessary to remove Britain from the EU, so Britain could regain empire status or something.
Operational Level
The frontlines remain static. There is a lot of localized activity that results in villages changing hands, but the combat seems to be without any logic beyond the combat itself. This is something that I’ve noted several times.
This is the state of play in the most active area of operations.
New Weapons
No F-16s to Ukraine, but There May be NATO Aircraft
Ukraine has been campaigning to get modern aircraft to replace some of the Russian sleds they are flying. Their first choice is the F-16. The F-16 makes a lot of sense as it overmatches anything Russia can put in the air, at least with the pilots Russia has, and it standardizes more Ukrainian weapons with NATO. That is off the table. The Department of Defense provided this definitive “no” to an unnamed group of US Senators.
France appears to be stepping into the gap. Not only has France been training a cadre of Ukrainian pilots, but it is also trying to find Mirage 2000 airframes to transfer.
Suicide Drone Swarm Attack?
Russian milbloggers claim that Ukraine has bought up most of the world’s supply of racing drones, also known as FPV or First Person View drones. These are smaller than standard quadcopters but have powerful motors giving speeds of 120 mph or more, and they can carry a payload. For example, in the image below, the drones are carrying an RPG warhead that can destroy any battlefield target below the level of a main battle tank.
I’m agnostic on this report, but it does appear at the same time that Ukraine is fielding newly organized drone units. This kind of organization makes a lot of sense.
Slovak MiG-29s Arrive
Poland and Slovakia have promised to deliver 40 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. The first four have arrived.
Chinese Ammunition Appears
Chinese-manufactured ammunition has arrived in Ukraine. Until now, the Chinese government has refused to supply Russia with ammunition. It is always possible that the policy has changed or the government has authorized the “unofficial” export of ammunition. In my view, the most likely explanation is that North Korea is the source. Whether that was done with Chinese approval or by a quintessentially rogue North Korean action remains to be seen.
Ukrainian Training Continues
Ukrainian units continue to receive specialized training on integrating their new equipment into their tactics. This video appears to have been taken in Poland.
Combat Operations
The front lines remain essentially stable. Jostling continues around Bakhmut, but the consensus is that the ferocity of the fighting there has slackened substantially. This, again, in my opinion, is due to Wagner Group taking a smaller role because its primary source of cannon fodder, the Russian prison empire, has been put off limits to recruiting.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Just a few snippets here.
This documentary shows Ukrainian troops going through training on the Challenger 2 tank in the UK. It may be longer than your attention span, but it shows how the Brits are putting tank crews together. I’ve seen similar video for Poland. The existence of high-tech simulators to create crew proficiency without wasting fuel, ammo, or spare parts is a huge plus. I hope this kind of training establishment can be copied in Ukraine.
Here is combat footage of a British-made Stormer anti-aircraft system downing a Russian reconnaissance drone, probably an Orlan-10. Denying enemy drones access to airspace has become a top priority as it allows you to conceal tactical movements and equipment locations and makes indirect fires much more inaccurate. I profiled the Stormer in Week 21. New Weapons Change the Battlefield in Ukraine’s Favor but Are They Stronger Than European Cowardice and Stupidity?
The last video is ground combat action geolocated to Verkhn’okam’yans’ke, Donetsk, a village about 15 miles northeast of Bakhmut. The circular insert in the image shows the terrain in the video in relation to the larger area.
The battle starts with a single Ukrainian fighting position under attack by about 30 Wagner PMC troops. As the video opens, one Wagner assault group is approaching on the left side of a hedgerow. The other assault group is outflanking the fighting position to the right.
Ukrainian mortar or light artillery fire starts at 1:53.
Friendly fire (airburst) hits the Ukrainian position at 2:15
Artillery gets the range on the advancing force at 3:09. And at 3:49, an artillery round kills or injures most of the attackers on the left side of the hedgerow. This was inevitable from the way the unit stayed bunched up. By spreading out 10-15 yards apart, online, and moving by fire and maneuver, the assaulting force should have outflanked and quickly reduced the Ukrainian position.
The Russians to the right of the hedgerow outflank the Ukrainians and move into a close assault at 8:54, culminating in a grenade attack (9:39). The continued, small arms fire indicates the grenade did not take out the underground bunker. An airburst hits the Russian assault element at 10:00. At 10:34, the Russians begin to pull back because Ukrainian armor arrives on the scene (10:46). The surviving members of the right-side assault team withdraws to the top of the screen, pursued by tanks.
Northern Front
Donbas
Bakhmut
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Partisans Strike in Melitopol
Ukrainian SOF and partisans have been active in this area for months. The frequency of the attacks seems to have stepped up.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Wagner Group Starts a Crimean Subsidiary
There are reports that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group is recruiting for a PMC in Crimea. My gut is that this will end up being a “home guard” focused on internal security, as the FSB is doing a crap job of stopping Ukrainian Special Operations Forces from operating there.
Russia
Police Attacked in Chechnya
Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is one of Vladimir Putin’s staunchest allies. To prove his worth, Kadyrov has been a high-profile recruiter for the Russian military, forming and equipping ethnic Chechen units for service in Ukraine. According to reports, these units are primarily used as blocking units to keep Russian mobiks from decamping.
Earlier this week, a small group of gunmen attacked a police station in Chechnya. There is no reliable information on their motive.
This could be a run-of-the-mill Chechen business dispute. Or it might have political implications. The fact that Kadyrov showed up at the scene to berate the corpses or organize their dragging through the street hints that Kadyrov sees this as a challenge to his rule.
What’s Next?
I think the politics of the situation demands that Ukraine launch an offensive in the next six weeks. I don’t see how the donors keep engaged without something to see for the equipment transferred to Ukraine. As I said earlier, in my view, the question is not the equipment but rather if the Ukrainian Army has been able to throw off its Soviet roots and execute a combined arms operation. If they can, the whole nature of the war changes, and all of Russia’s gains since February 2022, and maybe since the original 2014 invasion, are on the table. If they can’t, the fighting will go down to a dull roar, and we will have another frozen conflict.
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