British weaponry and military vehicles could be manufactured in Ukraine under plans that would mark a deepening of the country’s ties with Nato.
Senior
UK defence industry officials are discussing the plans with their
counterparts in Kyiv, with any deal likely to be seen as a significant
strengthening of Britain’s relationship with Ukraine.
British
executives have travelled there with a view to setting up joint
ventures that would manufacture arms and vehicles locally under licence.
Other
European defence companies are also in talks with Ukraine, with British
companies keen not to be beaten to the punch by French and German
rivals. A race is on to put the UK “at the front of the queue”, one
executive told The Telegraph.
It comes after Rishi Sunak opened the door to Britain sending fighter jets to Ukraine following a plea from Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, during his surprise trip to the UK last week.
Any joint venture is likely to require sign-off from Mr Sunak. Russia
has repeatedly threatened retaliation against the West for sending arms to Ukraine, and any manufacturing support is likely to further inflame tensions
On Saturday night, Downing Street and the Ministry of Defence declined to comment, saying it was a matter for industry.
But
Ed Arnold, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
think tank and a former British army Nato officer, said: “Industry
cooperation drives closeness in international relations. This might be
initially billed as commercial, but it will need tacit political
approval at least.”
Mr Arnold added that a deal on military
equipment would “point to future long term cooperation, deepening ties
between Britain and Ukraine to a level they haven’t been yet”. He said a
deal of this kind would bring Ukraine “closer towards Nato and European security structures”.
Ukraine has applied to join Nato,
but the alliance is unlikely to accept while the country is in a state
of war. As a Nato member, fellow members would be legally compelled to
actively defend it against Russia, a commitment that goes well beyond
the supply of weapons.
James Black, a military procurement expert
at Rand Corporation, a US security think tank, said a deal seeing a
Western power manufacture heavy arms in Ukraine would be a first because
the country has little history of industrial co-operation.
He added: “The Ukrainian defence industry has been primarily focused
on producing and maintaining Soviet-era or indigenous technologies, and
since independence it has suffered from several decades from
underinvestment, stalled reforms, corruption issues, and other
challenges.”
Ukraine has made some Israeli and US small arms, such
as rifles, under licence, and has adapted some of its tanks to
incorporate Israeli electronics.
Francis Tusa, an independent
defence expert, said any new factories would present themselves as key
targets for Russian bombing raids, adding: “A tank factory isn’t small.
And quite frankly, if I’m Putin it’ll be one of the first places I take
out.”
Deals to make Western armour would be likely be seen as
antagonistic by Moscow, but Nato allies are unlikely to be intimidated
by these threats in the wake of ever more complex arms donations, he added.
“At
this stage anything the West does, the Russians will say that’s
provocation,” said Mr Tusa, adding that the West was likely to take the
stance: “Well, tough.”
Ukraine is understood to want to build Western-designed artillery,
vehicles and weapons itself under licence rather than simply buying
them.
Licensing military design for local construction is common
because it offers arms companies a revenue source but allows the
customer country to retain jobs and build skills. Britain’s Sea King
helicopters, built in Yeovil, are licence-built versions of US Sikorsky
models, for example.
The move would allow Ukraine to maintain jobs for its tens of
thousands of defence workers as it shifts from Russian designed
armaments to Nato-standard arms.
An advisor to Ukroboronprom,
Ukraine’s state-owned arms manufacturer, last week publicly said it
wanted to do deals with Western companies to manufacture Nato-standard
Western arms domestically. Serhii Markovskyi told Western
representatives that Kyiv was seeking to strike deals to boost security
in the region.
“In addition to direct participation in joint
ventures and a form of cooperation with Nato industry, we can also act
as an important tool for replacing the Russian and Chinese influence in
countries of the Middle East, Asia and Africa,” he told defence chiefs
at a seminar hosted by the Royal United Services Institute last week.
Ukrainian soldiers are being trained to use Nato equipment, including British armoured vehicles, by various armed forces.
Joint
venture manufacturing would help end Kyiv’s reliance on handouts from
the West. Billions of pounds of equipment have been sent to the front
lines by European allies and the US, but Ukraine continues to require huge amounts of support.
The continued demands have led to concerns that the West will be unable to ramp up production sufficiently to restock its own armouries and continue to supply Ukraine.
While armourers such as France’s Nexter, BAE Systems and Rheinmetall are increasing shell production, building a new line takes two years.
In
the meantime, European arms companies rely heavily on just two makers
of the propellants that send the shells on their way when fired from
artillery tubes.
Mr Markovskyi said: “The main challenges for the
Western industry appear to be a shortage of qualified workers and
engineers, dependence on China for those materials, insufficient volumes
of production of explosive and special chemistry.”
Ukraine is an
accomplished arms maker in its own right. During the Soviet era, it was a
centre of high-spec military manufacture, with Dnipro known as “Rocket
City” because of its prowess in space engineering and intercontinental
ballistic missile design.
It was reported on Saturday night that Nato believes British forces
are so overstretched they will not be able to take on Russia, according
to a source speaking to the Mail on Sunday.
A Ministry of Defence
insider backed claims in the German media that Berlin had been asked to
remain in charge of its rapid reaction force as the UK was unable to
spare the 5,000-strong force needed.
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