New Poll Hints That Defending Abortion Is Not the Killer Issue the Democrats Thought Would Save Them From Voters in November

streiff reporting for RedState 

Back in May, Politico published a leaked draft of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s decision in Dobbs vs. Whole Women’s Health (Politico Tries to Pre-Game SCOTUS by Publishing Leaked Draft Opinion Overturning Roe). That decision, when it was finally published in late June, demolished the pseudo-legal basis for the horrific practice of abortion.

Pro-aborts, both the seemingly normal and definitely abnormal, turned out across the country and on the sidewalk in front of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home to protest the end of their ability to murder babies.

While the purple-haired set was screaming out their impotent rage, the more astute observers of American politics were predicting that this was exactly what the Democrat Party needed to offset the vicious mismanagement of the nation at the hands of Joe Biden. If Americans were torqued about “supply chain” breakdowns, no baby formula (Joe Biden Invokes Defense Production Act to Try to Fix the Baby Formula Shortage His Henchmen Created), gas increasing by $3/gallon in 18 months, and businesses crushed by COVID lockdowns, by gosh, the very thing to take their mind off that string of catastrophes was the right to kill infants. READ: CNN Polling Expert Puts the ‘Ow’ in ‘Ouch’ for Democrats by Explaining Just How Bad It Is.

The Washington Post:

Supporters of abortion rights and their Democratic allies predicted that the thunderclap heard Monday night with Politico’s publication of a leaked draft opinion by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. would reverberate through to the fall campaign and possibly beyond.

That, they said, could make an election that so far has largely appeared to be a referendum on President Biden and his party into a choice between Democratic and Republican governance that could narrow an enthusiasm gap that currently favors the Republicans and ultimately hold down expected GOP gains.

“The right wants to take this to a place — and I think this will be a problem for the right — to a very dark place that I don’t think Americans are prepared for,” said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. “Gender politics has been relatively muted for some time. This brings it to the fore and it will be dramatically different than what we’ve seen for a long time.”

Bloomberg:

Abortion-rights supporters are more galvanized than opponents by the prospect of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, a new poll found, hinting at how a leaked draft opinion may shape the midterm elections.

USA Today:

At a time when President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been underwater for months, the leaked opinion and possible overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court could energize Democratic voters in a way the president has so far been unable to do and give Democrats a better shot at maintaining control of Congress, some experts say. But interviews with anti-abortion advocates indicate their supporters would be energized, too.

“I think the wholesale reversal of Roe is a wild card,” said David Axelrod, a top Democratic consultant and former senior adviser and chief strategist for President Barack Obama. “Democrats are facing ferocious headwinds this fall. But if the court follows through on this, the backlash could provide some counterweight – particularly if it brings more pro-choice women and younger voters to the polls.”

A month after the Dobbs decision, we are getting a clearer picture of the effects of that decision on the 2022 elections. From a Washington Post article headlined Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds:

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the end of Roe v. Wade represents a “major loss of rights” for women, a Washington Post-Schar School poll finds, but those who support abortion access are less certain they will vote this fall — a sign of the challenges facing Democrats who hope the issue will motivate their base in the midterms.

A lot of the stuff in the poll doesn’t make sense, but as it seems to have been constructed to create a “Democrat voting intensity increases after Dobbs” storyline, it is worth reading.

But the poll also provides evidence of an enthusiasm problem for Democrats: Those who reject the idea that the court’s ruling is a loss for women are 18 percentage points more likely to express certainty they will vote in the midterms — 70 percent compared with 52 percent of those who do see such a loss, according to the Post-Schar School poll conducted July 22 to 24.

Democrats and women, especially younger women, are particularly uncertain they will vote. About 1 in 3 women under 40 are sure they will cast a ballot even as they have strong concerns about rollbacks in abortion access.

“Is the discontent with Democratic Party leadership and policies generally so deep that those most affected by the court decision … still plan to sit out this election?” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, who worked on the poll. “I struggle to wrap my head around this disconnect.”

Lots of things can happen between now and November. Heaven knows, the GOP is led by a collection of cretins and grifters who could turn a wet dream into a horror show. What is abundantly clear is that now is not the time to let up on the pro-life message. The people who opposed abortion for the last 50 years are just as fired up to stamp out this hideous fake medical procedure as they ever were, perhaps more so now that we are making real progress. More tellingly, most of the people who claim to be injured by Dobbs aren’t angry; they are defeated and demoralized. We can’t afford to lapse into triumphalism, there is a lot of hard work to do to rescue this country from Biden and his cronies, but we needn’t be fearful of losing votes because the Supreme Court did the right thing.