The Last Barrel Standing Part 1

 Sunlit7 op

Searching through articles and data over the last couple of weeks I've found that the energy transition is much more complex and intertwined than most people could imagine. It would make for a rather lengthy post so because of the complexities involved I decided I will focus on various topics that hopefully will explain how we've come to be in the position that we are in in a two to three part series on the subject. There are some subject material that still leaves me a bit bewildered as I am not totally convinced the answer I found on whose behind the drive is really behind it. The explanation makes logical sense but how it's come to be the driving force into other countries doesn't quite mesh. In other words Germany isn't generally thought of as a world super power player wielding that kind of influence. Which will bring me to focus in this part on how it was exactly that the United States, well, basically asked who died and made you the boss.

It probably wouldn't take long to figure out who threw a wrench into their party but here's the paragraph that sums it up:

The Paris Agreement handicaps the United States economy […]. [O]ur withdrawal from the agreement represents a reassertion of America’s sovereignty […]. Staying in the agreement could also pose serious obstacles for the United States as we begin the process of unlocking the restrictions on America’s abundant energy reserves, which we have started very strongly.

– Donald Trump, Statement on the Paris Climate Accord, Washington, DC, June 2017

https://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/blog/2019/19/us-and-german-energy-policy-crossroads

I've quite often said the last several weeks that to see the real Donald Trump people need to go back and read what he has said without all the media distractions that were present when he said it. When you start to look back over the things that have transpired you can see the message for what it really was. The article has a paragraph that articulates it quite well:

Despite the Trump administration’s focus on promoting fossil fuels, a closer look at foreign policy instruments thus reveals that the U.S. and Germany still have a common interest in promoting sustainable energy abroad—albeit for different reasons. Having a common interest among the transatlantic partners does not, of course, translate automatically into cooperation and common policy approaches. In many cases, the complexity of coordinating, especially when it comes to development policy, may simply be too high.

Simply put the differences are Germany having built into their economy the statistical logistics, manufacturing support and partnerships abroad to become a major player in green energy whereas when Obama signed the Paris Agreement the US wasn't a major player or contributor in the actual transition phase except monetarily. Trump didn't have a problem with the Paris Accord per se, he wanted the United States to have a bigger piece of the transition pie.

There's no arguing it had the potential to handicap our economy in regards to the green energy transition or the loss of sovereignty when it came to it's status as a super power, what confuses those behind believing he's making America Great Again is that he's out to protect America and those who reside within, that is not necessarily a truth. Becoming a major distributor in the transition means exporting our resources as dictated to countries who need to transition from carbons that create the most pollution to carbons that don't. That doesn't mean the US, in the long run, gets to keep it's oil and natural gas. The US will still be expected themselves to transition to a cleaner alternative. Otherwise you can't be part of the transatlantic partnerships, who have been busy bees underpinning countries transitional phases, some which don't make much sense, but more about that in another post. When Trump said this part:

Staying in the agreement could also pose serious obstacles for the United States as we begin the process of unlocking the restrictions on America’s abundant energy reserves, which we have started very strongly.

People hear this: drill baby drill because they actually thought he was unlocking those abundant energy reserves for them. That was furthest from the truth. He was unlocking our abundant reserves so the US could play in the transition game. In my prior post I described how he made it appear the US was energy independent Independent enough we'd have plenty of oil to ship off across the Atlantic. When he said "abundant energy reserves" he wasn't talking about added pipelines, drilling, fracking or anything of that nature he meant our actual strategic stockpile reserves which he drained sixty million plus barrels from. The Keystone, expanded drilling and fracking permits were as much a mirage as his saving taxpayers on having new presidential planes built or the three plus one med east pipeline agreement, Boeing admits they took the hit to make it appear he was a great negotiator and the med east, in the long run, was a boondoggle, which is why it got cancelled. You can't claim something that is yet unfinished as having had an effect on bringing down oil prices but if you saturate the market, which he did by taking from our reserves while maintaining Saudi imports. This very misconception is why we are in the predicament we are in. Demand slowed so prices plummeted, demand goes back up and you can't keep up with the amount of oil being exported off to Europe without also having to take more oil from the reserves. It's just logical sense. So in another gut wrenching display of his mischievousness let me display to you exactly where our problems started:

US Exports Of Crude Oil (Thousands of Barrels A Day)
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1920 15 29 29 23 25 21 23 18 26 25 27 27
1921 24 28 24 25 28 20 17 29 29 24 29 17
1922 23 21 26 31 25 28 29 25 38 24 29 36
1923 25 24 33 50 43 87 50 50 53 42 47 68
1924 49 58 50 52 60 51 45 40 63 48 48 34
1925 37 40 34 27 44 42 42 47 31 42 25 28
1926 38 37 31 44 59 41 56 35 46 33 45 41
1927 39 42 39 39 45 47 35 45 43 50 43 55
1928 40 43 49 43 48 63 54 61 50 65 56 49
1929 64 60 52 58 62 87 101 72 66 93 86 67
1930 58 62 63 63 71 84 64 78 65 70 59 43
1931 62 61 51 61 73 85 85 92 77 77 82 35
1932 51 65 67 96 95 93 73 92 70 82 44 69
1933 62 67 69 98 86 145 146 101 106 125 110 85
1934 74 90 83 131 120 126 133 119 136 106 156 79
1935 76 100 106 126 149 186 188 160 166 155 143 132
1936 99 120 102 125 142 160 144 179 168 152 138 118
1937 116 135 103 163 219 206 205 239 220 216 222 165
1938 192 190 197 252 252 247 234 226 186 219 187 158
1939 144 172 160 207 279 194 236 193 231 224 177 150
1940 66 61 84 96 142 129 148 125 115 109 114 67
1941 54 48 64 83 140 131 118 106 97 82 85 82
1942 49 48 61 99 120 120 109 131 108 105 94 66
1943 65 86 80 139 152 144 159 129 115 109 114 67
1944 80 66 68 96 101 121 113 109 112 96 100 59
1945 42 57 64 89 103 97 114 107 106 116 113 75
1946 62 71 88 121 117 111 138 141 138 137 111 102
1947 80 92 105 133 154 125 167 134 136 120 128 146
1948 97 91 101 118 108 114 118 128 112 110 106 99
1949 69 69 60 122 93 102 92 110 87 94 100 88
1950 69 83 69 99 95 103 106 100 88 130 108 94
1951 94 88 85 121 58 78 75 76 73 63 62 69
1952 74 76 95 111 55 80 61 63 55 49 60 95
1953 71 72 70 94 52 61 40 43 37 38 35 44
1954 51 28 28 47 41 46 35 44 17 49 35 26
1955 12 35 27 48 38 35 29 38 29 28 29 34
1956 32 17 37 20 40 29 24 38 27 47 285 340
1957 244 282 455 308 119 58 39 33 25 32 31 35
1958 14 8 27 21 16 7 10 11 6 11 10 2
1959 11 3 6 8 9 6 6 8 5 8 4 8
1960 9 10 8 9 4 15 8 3 8 11 0 17
1961 4 11 11 11 7 15 6 10 4 6 13 9
1962 3 5 7 3 11 1 6 6 3 0 9 5
1963 6 4 3 6 5 4 5 6 3 6 4 5
1964 4 3 8 3 6 5 3 4 2 3 0 4
1965 3 2 0 6 0 2 14 0 0 6 3 0
1966 4 0 3 10 0 4 8 6 3 3 3 4
1967 1 0 3 8 0 61 275 264 201 46 4 2
1968 8 10 1 5 3 8 0 3 3 4 13 3
1969 0 8 6 3 7 0 0 5 3 5 8 3
1970 3 0 2 3 0 10 3 0 0 63 54 24
1971 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0
1972 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1973 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 5 0 0 6
1974 17 10 0 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1975 27 34 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1976 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 12 0 18 30 34
1977 13 59 32 17 89 10 53 37 91 85 45 69
1978 98 8 60 92 124 195 138 182 251 272 218 251
1979 177 288 370 260 171 235 244 245 175 179 264 215
1980 322 332 330 192 326 365 238 78 322 309 289 343
1981 339 198 210 198 312 123 257 204 194 226 278 189
1982 238 304 321 174 262 94 229 304 184 270 262 193
1983 117 262 174 88 280 144 145 172 177 140 186 95
1984 153 185 236 172 219 222 108 190 162 141 202 185
1985 144 221 189 236 250 226 154 241 188 123 286 197
1986 159 162 212 94 98 240 65 233 161 151 115 159
1987 84 284 150 247 69 116 149 141 116 84 164 220
1988 206 146 213 114 138 138 186 152 119 166 148 129
1989 137 208 156 139 131 243 69 162 32 61 120 247
1990 132 102 132 111 112 88 89 64 68 104 137 162
1991 50 152 137 162 165 78 139 55 109 92 126 133
1992 118 22 105 23 106 107 53 133 68 106 111 107
1993 129 166 139 73 112 150 62 55 107 62 67 63
1994 110 116 41 120 118 107 84 72 61 138 102 118
1995 113 95 68 155 73 101 103 61 74 50 118 127
1996 89 92 94 148 37 130 139 44 147 134 172 96
1997 141 229 136 92 26 57 70 110 122 152 32 131
1998 231 197 99 163 144 63 104 51 34 87 60 90
1999 107 119 95 332 88 123 120 132 27 56 83 133
2000 176 30 144 124 34 9 15 17 23 9 2 16
2001 18 24 37 5 64 15 11 28 8 11 9 12
2002 11 4 8 8 7 5 33 9 7 4 10 2
2003 10 5 10 12 15 45 7 4 3 14 21 4
2004 6 8 19 55 26 45 18 13 35 25 42 30
2005 40 19 36 45 55 21 34 17 24 17 48 24
2006 27 15 29 26 27 33 13 15 21 37 24 27
2007 9 25 34 19 36 52 27 42 34 11 20 20
2008 12 20 29 14 19 22 29 40 39 43 31 46
2009 36 30 30 27 53 57 31 35 42 72 46 65
2010 33 58 45 37 36 31 69 36 61 23 32 40
2011 72 30 36 41 37 36 73 34 35 51 64 53
2012 78 73 71 41 83 46 77 60 68 67 73 71
2013 109 132 107 138 130 124 104 71 105 119 253 220
2014 248 247 251 282 309 394 421 391 349 376 521 421
2015 495 442 438 599 527 445 546 461 410 500 320 392
2016 490 454 596 624 788 530 536 720 775 502 606 468
2017 711 1,146 930 1,128 1,098 865 956 817 1,463 1,720 1,544 1,522
2018 1,362 1,735 1,969 1,919 2,067 2,279 2,307 1,859 2,015 2,256 2,400 2,391
2019 2,643 2,915 2,673 2,911 2,959 3,100 2,706 2,755 3,093 3,412 3,080 3,537
2020 3,388 3,537 3,625 2,883 3,177 2,747 3,343 3,409 3,265 2,939 2,786 3,356
2021 3,165 2,703 2,685 3,283 2,736 3,349 2,700 2,996 2,667 2,900 3,110 3,452
2022 3,347 3,309 3,319

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrexus2&f=m

I printed the whole history because some people are just blind as a bat when it comes to Trump. Now you see what the problem is? He made us a top exporter to Europe as part of the agreement to be included in the energy transition. If they didn't keep sucking oil out of the reserve you'd be paying about what the residence of Europe are paying for a gallon of gas. It's going to get worse, way worse as I explain in another post to this series because they have no intention at the moment to increase refining capacity and some refining manufacturers have shuttered their doors. That's just your oil, wait till they get up and running with exporting your natural gas. While US refineries are shutting down refinery capacity, never to built another refinery in the US again ,   https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/05/chevrons-ceo-says-no-more-us-oil-refineries-what-s/ Africa is exploding with expansions of refineries, oil and gas and you are paying for it:  

The Power Africa program, for instance, is a public-private partnership launched in 2013 during the Obama administration. It seeks to increase investment to improve energy security and economic growth and fight poverty in African countries. Its target is to create new generation capacity (mostly gas, solar, wind, and hydro) and improve transmission infrastructure. In 2018, the Trump administration added a Gas Roadmap to the program, which aims at adding 16,000 MW in gas-fired power generation in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. USAID estimates that this could result in at least $5 billion in U.S. LNG exports by 2030.

In 2018, the Trump administration issued its Indo Pacific Strategy, a reaction to the ever-increasing activities of China in the region. One of the instruments to implement this strategy is Asia “EDGE” (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy). Through this initiative, the U.S. government will invest some $50 million a year to support regional energy trade and integration, the deployment of advanced energy systems, and utility modernization. Various USAID programs support Asia EDGE. Among them are “Clean Power Asia,” an initiative to foster renewable energy in the ASEAN countries, and Greening the Grid, a USAID technical assistance initiative in cooperation with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Asia EDGE also includes programs to promote the construction of LNG infrastructure and projects to supply LNG in the region.

The U.S. also offers assistance on clean energy policy through its Clean Energy Solutions Center in cooperation with the governments of Australia, Mexico, and Sweden under the framework of the Clean Energy Ministerial. The programs and policies aim to support the deployment of low-carbon technology.

In addition to its USAID programs, the U.S. development finance institution OPIC (Overseas Private Investment Corporation) spends almost half of its $29 billion budget in electricity projects. Most of this is spent in renewable energy with a current regional focus on Africa, Latin America, and the Indo-Pacific. In October 2019, the U.S. government will launch OPIC’s successor institution, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). At $60 billion, its investment cap will be twice as high as OPIC’s. One of the focal points of DFC’s work will be on energy, as recent expert interviews in Washington, DC, suggested. In addition to new tools such as loans and loan guarantees, DFC will be able to make equity investments. It will further have the ability not only to support U.S. businesses, but also foreign companies. With its new development finance institution, the U.S. seeks to provide “financially-sound alternatives to state-led initiatives from countries like China.”

https://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/blog/2019/19/us-and-german-energy-policy-crossroads 

Look at that, billions upon billions of your money going overseas so investors can, well basically, invest in a way to process your natural resources cheaper while you pay through the nose at the increased demand. How I see it playing out is that the US will keep importing oil from the Saudi's that will be sold to Americans at a higher rate while they will simultaneously buy (your domestic) oil at a bulk rate to put into the reserves where it will be shipped off to be processed by cheap labor in Africa before being sent off to Europe. You may actually escape sticker shock on your natural gas bill this winter but come the next all bets are off once they have that fully functional. Don't let that last line throw you for a loop, they are all in this together, wait until I show you the partnership "analysis" on Ukraine, it should rock your socks off. You can't see the double speak going on here than you probably deserve five dollar a gallon gas:

Both aim to create local expertise, innovation, and capacity in their partner countries. What they are pursuing, however, is not only capacity building. They are competing over positive relationships with developing countries—with each other but, more importantly, also with countries like Russia and China. Their efforts thus have a normative and a power dimension beyond “just” enabling development. As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo puts it:

We’re not just exporting American energy, we’re exporting our commercial value system to our friends and to our partners. The more we can spread the United States model of free enterprise, of the rule of law, of diversity and stability, of transparency and transactions, the more successful the United States will be and the more successful and secure the American people will be. 

– Mike Pompeo, Remarks at CERAWeek 2019

https://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/blog/2019/19/us-and-german-energy-policy-crossroads 

"We're not just exporting American energy, we're exporting our commercial value system".

I guess you are suppose to just keep repeating that to yourself every time you put that nozzle into your gas tank as some sort of feel good measure. This is undeniable that a few "Trump Tweaks" to the global green new deal put us smack into the position that we are in with our energy supplies, this isn't at the benefit of Americans but the benefit of the usual suspects, the globalist elites of the world.