Does This CDC Study Deliver?

Matt Vespa reporting for Townhall

Does This CDC Study Deliver the Knockout Blow in the COVID Lockdown Debate?

For weeks, the nation’s economy has been under lockdown to curb the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus. It’s contagious. That’s true, but in the span of a few days, the entire COVID narrative has virtually collapsed. We still don’t have enough testing regarding antibodies, though preliminary results show that the infection rate could be immensely higher than what is reported, with higher recovery numbers. It was said to be spread mostly through surfaces. That was revised on Thursday:

Georgia has re-opened and no Armageddon has followed. Florida was supposed to be a graveyard by now. It’s not. Eight weeks in, COVID case and deaths remain lower than other hard-hit areas along the Acela Corridor. In the meantime, we’ve had Democratic governors used the virus to carve out power grabs. There is no reason for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer to extend the stay-at-home order until June 12^th. It’s madness. I supported the lockdowns to curb the spread and prevent the hospitals from being overrun. The spread of this thing was also impacting the markets as well. Well, the curve has been flattened. The hospitals were not overwhelmed like what we saw in Italy. Mission accomplished. It’s time to re-open. 

While all of this was going on, millions of Americans were forced into the unemployment line, small businesses were pinched, and even big retail giants were filing for bankruptcy protection. Some are very lucky that they can work from home, the vast majority cannot. And the last three weeks or so has been a cacophony of nonsense. Are face masks good when it comes to combating this thing? Also, and most importantly, what’s the real mortality rate? That alone is the silver bullet. Forget the masks, standing six feet apart, etc. if it’s just like the flu, open everything back up now, not piecemeal. It’s not necessary. And the Center for Disease Control and Prevention doled out a study (via Conservative Review):

Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged ita month ago.

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

Some of you have been sharing and voicing skepticism over the numbers and the policies that have been born from them. What can I say? Maybe I overreacted. To those who were right,  keep spreading the word. Yet, I‘M also certain that the political class wouldn’t have acted differently. A pandemic going around when registered Democrats are in office is just inviting disaster, as we’ve seen in New York. Actually, that’s not quite fair. 

For any leader in a position to protect its citizenry, including Trump, a lockdown and a ‘better safe than sorry’ mentality is what probably would've won out in this situation. Suppose COVID was going to be as bad as some people projected? At the time, would you, as a politician, roll the dice? There’s going to be a lot of 'Monday Morning quarterbacking here, given the new figures. Hell, Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of Trump’s top Wuhan coronavirus task force members, now says staying inside for too long isn’t good, as it could cause “irreparable damage”:

Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Friday.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” Fauci said during an interview with CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on “Halftime Report.”

Meanwhile, Germany has opened back up, no issues. In Japan, they did none of the drastic measures we saw enacted and they’re about to re-open. 

We still don’t know enough about this virus. Keeping people inside because you don’t know some stuff about a disease isn’t sufficient to keep people inside, especially when the initial goal has been met here. It’s time to re-open America. Does this CDC study deliver a death blow to those who want to stay inside until there’s a cure? Probably not, but to the wider electorate—It’s could be quite a different take, especially those running family-owned businesses who have been brutalized by this pandemic. These folks would rather risk infection than lose everything, and based on this new data set, I don’t blame them.

The next thing to be revised is the total death toll, which many of you said would be lower. Though not highlighted, and probably ignored by the liberal media, even Dr. Deborah Birx said that the administration was casting a big net concerning COVID deaths until a clearer picture was established. That was weeks ago. Ellie and Katie both wrote about it. Also, let's not forget that China has the most deaths. We all know this. We also know that this virus is their fault as well.

UPDATES: I forgot to mention that North Carolina's COVID death toll projection has been significantly reduced (via WRAL):

New modeling from a group of researchers at the University of Washington has significantly cut the number of COVID-19 deaths expected in North Carolina through August.

Projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now forecast more than 2,500 deaths from the disease through Aug. 4. That's down about 40 percent from the group's projection last week of 4,400 deaths.

Daily deaths are still expected to peak in mid- to late-June, but at a lower rate of nearly 30 a day.

As of May 20, the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services has tallied about 700 deaths from COVID-19 in the state.